{"id":63196,"date":"2023-09-19T21:07:42","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T01:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/the-fed-will-decide-to-cut-rates-when-here-are-5-wall-street-predictions-through-2024\/"},"modified":"2023-09-19T21:07:46","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T01:07:46","slug":"the-fed-will-decide-to-cut-rates-when-here-are-5-wall-street-predictions-through-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=63196","title":{"rendered":"The Fed will decide to cut rates when? Here are 5 Wall Street predictions through 2024."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Wall Street widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday after the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s after the holidays that things could get tricky.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect no change in rates this year,\u201d said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, adding that he expects Fed talk of potential rate cuts to surface a few months into 2024.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIt\u2019s going to be extremely important to see how holiday sales go,\u201d Roach said by phone. \u201cIf holiday sales are OK, then it\u2019s likely a second-quarter event,\u201d he said of Fed conversations around lower rates.<\/p>\n

See<\/strong>: Retailers compete to be first to hold holiday sales in a bid to spur flagging demand<\/p>\n

No change to rates would keep the Fed\u2019s policy rate at a 22-year high, giving the central bank more time to monitor the effects of its rate hikes as it presses on with a fight to get inflation down to its 2% annual target.<\/p>\n

As a general rule of thumb, stocks typically rise after the Fed cuts rates. That wasn\u2019t the case in March 2020 with emergency cuts to offset the COVID crisis, but the S&P 500 was back in record territory in six months, with the help of low rates and trillions of dollars in pandemic stimulus.<\/p>\n

See<\/strong>: 4 things to watch for at this week\u2019s Fed policy meeting<\/p>\n

The central bank\u2019s \u201cdot plot\u201d in June included the equivalent of four 25-basis-point cuts to the current 5.25% to 5.5% policy range (see chart) next year, with the rate eventually expected to fall closer to 3%. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

The odds on Wall Street since September have been pointing to a similar pattern for rates next year. However, the Fed\u2019s dot plots aren\u2019t set in stone. Fresh dots are released four times a year and serve as a guidepost to central bankers\u2019 thinking on the economic outlook. The latest dot update is due on Wednesday. <\/p>\n

\u201cHistorically, the dot plot is a poor predictor of where rates go,\u201d Roche said.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, here are other big takeaways from Wall Street about the outlook for rates:<\/p>\n