{"id":62509,"date":"2023-09-18T11:53:16","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T15:53:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/10-year-treasury-yield-holds-near-16-year-highs-ahead-of-midweek-fed-decision\/"},"modified":"2023-09-18T11:53:18","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T15:53:18","slug":"10-year-treasury-yield-holds-near-16-year-highs-ahead-of-midweek-fed-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=62509","title":{"rendered":"10-year Treasury yield holds near 16-year highs ahead of midweek Fed decision"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002514575\" role=\"document\">\n<p>Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors absorbed recent stronger-than-expected economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decision in two days.<\/p>\n<h2>What\u2019s happening<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The yield on the 2-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMBMKSE-02Y<br \/>\n       gained 2.8 basis points to 5.058% from 5.030% on Friday. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 10-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<br \/>\n       rose 2.3 basis points to 4.344% from 4.321% Friday afternoon.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 30-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD30Y<br \/>\n        climbed less than 1 basis point to 4.417% from 4.410% late Friday.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What\u2019s driving markets<\/h2>\n<p>Generally stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data last week \u2014 including stubborn inflation readings and sturdy retail sales \u2014 have combined with rising oil prices<br \/>\n        CL.1,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/211629951\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+1.32%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       to push the 10-year Treasury yield back toward its highest levels since the 2007-2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>Traders will be keen to see to what degree these developments are impacting Federal Reserve thinking when the central bank concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference shortly after.<\/p>\n<p>Markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.50% on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The chance of a 25 basis point rate hike to a range of 5.50%-5.75% at the subsequent meeting in November is priced at just 28.7%.<\/p>\n<p>In U.S. economic updates on Monday, a home builders\u2019 sentiment index fell in September to below breakeven level. <\/p>\n<p>U.K. 10-year government bond yields<br \/>\n        BX:TMBMKGB-10Y<br \/>\n       rose 4 basis points to 4.401% ahead of consumer prices data on Wednesday and the Bank of England\u2019s policy decision Thursday. The BoE is expected by many analysts to raise interest rates again by 25 basis points to 5.5%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong> Goldman Sachs lowers peak U.K. interest-rate forecast ahead of meeting<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Japan is forecast to stand pat on Friday, though traders will be sensitive to any mention of the timescale for exiting its negative-rate stance. <\/p>\n<h2>What analysts are saying<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cWe expect the Fed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5% at the September FOMC meeting. This outcome would be consistent with both recent Fed communications and current market pricing. We expect no change to the Fed\u2019s balance sheet policies,\u201d said Michael Gapen, Mark Cabana and Alex Cohen of BofA Securities.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInvestors will likely be focused on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will be released along with the FOMC statement,\u201d they wrote in a note. \u201cWe expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. Perhaps the most important forecast is the 2024 median, which in our view will shift up by 25bp to 4.875%, reflecting just 75bp of cuts next year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/treasury-yields-hold-near-16-year-highs-ahead-of-fed-decision-midweek-bb72e20f?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors absorbed recent stronger-than-expected economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decision in two days. What\u2019s happening The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMBMKSE-02Y gained 2.8 basis points to 5.058% from 5.030% on Friday. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. The yield on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-62509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>10-year Treasury yield holds near 16-year highs ahead of midweek Fed decision | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors absorbed recent stronger-than-expected economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decision\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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