{"id":62007,"date":"2023-09-17T04:23:34","date_gmt":"2023-09-17T08:23:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/angiodynamics-ango-enormous-effort-required-in-fiscal-24-to-reverse-the-equity-picture\/"},"modified":"2023-09-17T04:23:38","modified_gmt":"2023-09-17T08:23:38","slug":"angiodynamics-ango-enormous-effort-required-in-fiscal-24-to-reverse-the-equity-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=62007","title":{"rendered":"AngioDynamics (ANGO): Enormous Effort Required In Fiscal &#8217;24 To Reverse The Equity Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Investment Briefing<\/h2>\n<p>AngioDynamics, Inc. (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:ANGO<\/span>) posted its fiscal &#8217;23 numbers last month, with mixed results. On the one hand, divisional growth was strong in Med Tech and parts of its mechanical thrombectomy lines. On the other, profitability didn&#8217;t even attend the party, whereas investors<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> were left with a hangover from the downsides in its stock price, as the 18-month downtrend continues well in situ [Figure 1].<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">In the last ANGO publication, I rhapsodized at length about the importance of turning a profit and beefing up cash flows. The company&#8217;s investment needs aren&#8217;t high, but it has ambitious growth plans, and the cash for this needs to come from somewhere. Turning to its &#8217;23 numbers, the major takeout was the Med Tech segment, ANGO&#8217;s new focus area. And for good measure, too, it&#8217;s also the higher growth, higher-margin business. Per the CEO on the call<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>In 2019, we began a transformation of AngioDynamics. The first step of the transformation was to fundamentally change our portfolio to incorporate platform technologies that can provide a unique advantage and compete in higher-growth, high-margin, large total addressable markets.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>In July of 2021, we articulated a goal of executing to a three-year CAGR for our Med Tech segment of 30% to 35%. Through two years of that three-year plan, our Med Tech segment has a CAGR of 33%.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The next phase of our transformation is to address the scale and structural limitations of our operating footprint in a capital-efficient manner.&#8221; <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This report will unpack the company&#8217;s results and link this back to its economic performance, and the requirements + expectations moving forward. Net-net, I continue to rate ANGO a hold for the reasons raised here today.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Figure 1. <\/strong><em>ANGO continues in a c.2-year downtrend, repricing off $30.00 highs to trade in the $7&#8217;s at the time of writing.<\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-16948109425619845.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Data: Updata<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Critical investment facts to reiterate hold thesis<\/h2>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>1. Key insights from fiscal &#8217;23<\/em><\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ANGO had a reasonably successful fiscal year in &#8217;23 and put up revenues of ~$339mm, up 7.1% YoY. This was a shade off my estimates of $347mm. Q4 sales were $91.1mm, 4.7% growth YoY. It pulled this to gross margin of 51.4%, ~100bps decompression, on adj. EBITDA of $22.6mm (up 830bps). Whilst it&#8217;s still early days, looking out to fiscal &#8217;24, management projects top-line sales $328mm\u2014$333mm on a of loss of $0.28\u2014$0.34\/share. Critically, this is a lower number vs. &#8217;23, but ANGO divested from its dialysis and BioSentry business midway through the year. So the &#8216;pro-forma&#8217; revenues in &#8217;23 are $306mm; hence, it would be looking to grow sales ~8\u20139% on this basis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong><em>As to the Q4 + FY&#8217;23 insights:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <em>Med Tech and Medical devices are the major focus going forward<\/em>\n<ul>\n<li>Q4 Med Tech sales came in at $26.5mm and grew 17.2% YoY. On the other hand, the Medical device (&#8220;Med device&#8221;) segment did $64.6mm of business, up just 30bps. Med Tech was almost 30% of sales which was consistent throughout &#8217;23.<\/li>\n<li>FY&#8217;23 Med Tech sales were up 22.8% to $96.7mm, with Med Device revenues up 1.9% to $242.1mm. As mentioned earlier, the Med Tech business has compounded at a rate of 33% in the last 2 years. Management confirmed it will be the main priority going forward. I&#8217;d say this is important, because it carries the highest gross margin at 64%, vs. the medical device margin of ~46%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li> <em>Auryon remains a key growth lever<\/em>\n<ul>\n<li>Auryon Q4 sales were $11.8mm and grew 22% YoY. For FY&#8217;23, the business did $41mm in turnover, up 41% YoY. As noted, Auryon remains a key growth lever for the company, especially given the numbers in &#8217;23. Expansion efforts in the VTE space and adjacent opportunities in the atherectomy market are expected to contribute heavily to Auryon sales in &#8217;24 per management.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li> <em>Mechanical Thrombectomy\u2014headwinds remain<\/em>\n<ul>\n<li>As a reminder, mechanical thrombectomy includes ANGO&#8217;s AngioVac and AlphaVac lines. Combined, the segment was up 3.7% in Q4.<\/li>\n<li>Specifically, AlphaVac pulled in $1.8mm in Q4, $7.2mm for the year.<\/li>\n<li>But it was the AngioVac division (again) that was a drag on performance. AngioVac turnover was down 8.3% in Q4 and the year respectively, pulling in $24.5mm for the 12 months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Based on this, it&#8217;s clear why management would refocus on its Med Tech and medical devices business. That is where the growth lies in my view, and there&#8217;s a chance the market may be overlooking this. I&#8217;ll be watching diligently moving forward. Figure 2 gives a broader insight to the year and progress from FY&#8217;16, Figure 3 gives a more granular look at Q4.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-1694799405588134.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BIG Insights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Figure 3. <\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-16948007268256035.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Source: ANGO FY&#8217;23 Investor Presentation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>2. Critical Insights to economic performance<\/em><\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For ANGO to start adding value to its capitalization it needs to start showing us some profitability in my view. Not just margins either. Indeed, the newly-furbished business, that&#8217;s been on the go since &#8217;19, has brought in more revenues, a good sign. As a function of the resources employed to produce this income\u2014not so much.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Figure 4 depicts the company&#8217;s capital mobility and earnings post-tax since 2014. It&#8217;s more relevant to look from &#8217;19\u2014&#8217;23 given the above points. Sales have lifted from $291mm to $338mm in this time. The firm has pared right back in capital intensity, mostly in NWC and accounting goodwill, such that $400mm of operating capital is now required to run the business, equating to ~$10.10\/share.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consider that:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>The $10.10\/share of investment produced little-to-no post-tax earnings per share last year from $0.01mm of NOPAT. Is this a breakeven? Not really, no, because the earnings have been on the decline since &#8217;19.<\/li>\n<li>To me, this squares off with the economics at hand. The &#8216;restructuring&#8217; ANGO has embarked on these past 4 years is a function of poor capital allocation in the first place. What&#8217;s to say it all of a sudden it was to turn this around?<\/li>\n<li>You&#8217;re looking at 0\u20131% at the post-tax margin in &#8217;23, with 0.85x capital turnover. At least 1x would be required to suggest ANGO is rotating its inventories out the door at a reasonable pace in my opinion. I.e., $1 invested bringing in $1 in sales.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As a reprieve, it did throw off $1.90 in FCF\/share in &#8217;23, but not as a function of cash flow produced by the assets employed in the business. These were from asset disposals instead, designed to lean up the business.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-16948030452331126.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BIG Insights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Figure 5 gives an insight into the economic trouble this has spelled for ANGO&#8217;s shareholders. As a practical example, to buy ANGO, we&#8217;d need it to be doing ~12% rate on capital (that&#8217;s our core competency), so it would have needed to produce ~$48mm in NOPAT off the $400mm last year, or $1.21\/share. Given that it did $ 0.1mm, the economic loss was $48mm, negative $1.21\/share ($0.1\u2013$47.9mm = -$48mm).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-1694803047234518.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BIG Insights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Curiously enough, whilst sales have grown at a 3% rate since &#8217;18 (on very thin operating margins), for every new $1 in sales, ANGO was able to reduce its NWC requirements by $0.40. But fixed asset intensity increased by $0.31 on the dollar, so the net decrease in capital was $0.10 for every $1 in sales growth (Figure 6).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-16948029963695354.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BIG Insights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is useful info to gauge what ANGO would require and could produce in terms of investment and sales going forward. Management guide to 8% &#8216;proforma&#8217; revenues of ~$333mm in &#8217;24. Surely, NWC won&#8217;t continue to decline at a 40% rate. I&#8217;ve instead carried it forward at a 2% rate for every $1 in sales growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If it were to grow sales by 8% in the next 12 months, it would require ~$35\u2014$40mm of incremental investment and potentially throw off ~$40mm in FCF by my estimation. Just as a reminder, ANGO left the year with $44mm in cash on the balance sheet. This would require it to keep a 4% pre-tax margin and reinvest around 41% of its cash flows each period to grow. Still, the model only spits out a 3% average forward rate on capital, and for intrinsic value to compound ~6.5% over this time. So, would the 8% proforma growth create value for investors? Not so sure on that one.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-1694809377799075.png\" alt=\"f\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Note: Calendar Year Periods Are Shown, and Do Not correspond with ANGO&#8217;s fiscal year. Instead, they correspond with the normal calendar year.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation and conclusion<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ANGO sells at heavily compressed multiples: 0.9x forward sales, 0.7x book value, 0.77x EV\/invested capital. It&#8217;s clear the market isn&#8217;t holding high hopes for the company in &#8217;24. Are these multiples over-extending the downside? In my view, no, and consider this:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>ANGO has a gargantuan effort ahead of itself to reverse the economic picture discussed here (likely the underlying cause of its tiny multiples).<\/li>\n<li>An 8% sales growth in &#8217;24 is equally as ambitious, and it mightn&#8217;t throw off the profitability needed for its stock to catch a bid.<\/li>\n<li>The company would still likely need to invest in the realms of $30\u2013$40mm to hit 8% in my estimation. That $40mm has to come from somewhere. ANGO finished the fiscal year with $44mm on the balance sheet, so cash flow is absolutely paramount for the firm these next 12 months. A critical fact, in my view.<\/li>\n<li>Projecting the numbers in Figure 7 out to FY&#8217;28, then discounting back at the 12% hurdle rate used here, gets you to just $2.77 in equity value. Compounding its market value at the function of the estimated ROIC and reinvestment rate gets you to ~$5.45. The average of the two is ~$4.10.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That ANGO trades at such a discount is more understandable given these economics, so I&#8217;m not surprised that investors value its invested capital below par. The capital isn&#8217;t deemed to be valuable. Alas, with these points in mind, I&#8217;m retaining a hold rating on ANGO. Happy to be proven wrong in this instance.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/51411522-1694803002834986.png\" alt=\"r\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BIG Insights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In short, ANGO is potentially at an inflection point in its investment career. It&#8217;s either a reversal in market value from here or a continuation of the multi-year downtrend. The market isn&#8217;t as irrational as Ben Graham made it out to be in his &#8220;<em>Mr. Market&#8221;<\/em> characterization. Over time, it&#8217;s actually a fairly accurate proxy for a company&#8217;s intrinsic value. Keeping that in mind, it&#8217;s likely going to price ANGO where it &#8216;deserves&#8217; to sell. It&#8217;s entirely up to ANGO to muster up the investment demand to buy its stock at higher multiples. So &#8217;24 will be the critical year in my view. A number of its strategies look to be working at the sales level. But as a function of the resources required to get there, it still languishes. Key things to benchmark this fiscal year in my view:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Profitability, both at the margin and as a percentage of capital\/assets employed.<\/li>\n<li>Cash flows, because its investment needs have to stem from somewhere.<\/li>\n<li>An insatiable focus on getting the higher-margin Med Tech business front and centre, deploying as many resources as possible to expand this segment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Net-net, I continue to rate ANGO a hold, but as mentioned earlier, happy to be proven wrong here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4635608-angiodynamics-enormous-effort-required-in-fiscal-24-to-reverse-the-equity-picture?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investment Briefing AngioDynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGO) posted its fiscal &#8217;23 numbers last month, with mixed results. On the one hand, divisional growth was strong in Med Tech and parts of its mechanical thrombectomy lines. On the other, profitability didn&#8217;t even attend the party, whereas investors were left with a hangover from the downsides in its stock [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-62007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>AngioDynamics (ANGO): Enormous Effort Required In Fiscal &#039;24 To Reverse The Equity Picture | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investment Briefing AngioDynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGO) posted its fiscal &#039;23 numbers last month, with mixed results. 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