{"id":61386,"date":"2023-09-15T10:52:52","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T14:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/in-googles-antitrust-trial-the-tech-giant-might-show-its-not-abusing-its-monopoly-power\/"},"modified":"2023-09-15T10:52:55","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T14:52:55","slug":"in-googles-antitrust-trial-the-tech-giant-might-show-its-not-abusing-its-monopoly-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=61386","title":{"rendered":"In Google\u2019s Antitrust Trial, The Tech Giant Might Show It\u2019s Not Abusing Its Monopoly Power"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>A comapny can dominate a market without being a law-breaking monopolist. While it\u2019s illegal to use your market dominance to make consumers and competitors worse off, if consumers freely choose your product over the alternatives, you have earned your market leadership legitimately.<\/p>\n<p>There is no question Google dominates the market for search queries. As the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/tech\/googles-antitrust-trial-gets-under-way-in-washington-de1725b6\">Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported, the company handles \u201cabout 90%\u201d of such queries \u2014 supporting $160 billion in advertising revenue for Google. This component makes up most of parent company Alphabet\u2019s annual revenue.<\/p>\n<p>If the search giant can prove its market dominance flows from making customers better off by providing a service they prefer over the alternatives, Google has a shot at emerging victorious in this lawsuit.<\/p>\n<p>But who are the customers of Google\u2019s search service? There are many:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Smartphone and device makers who choose whether to make Google the default search engine on their products.<\/li>\n<li>Consumers who want the best results from their web searches.<\/li>\n<li>Advertisers who hope to tap into searches to expose consumers to their marketing messages to boost sales.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>If Google wins by satisfying the specific purchase criteria of these different customers better than rival services do, then the judge might conclude the search leader is not a power-abusing monopoly.<\/p>\n<p>This trial makes holding Alphabet stock a bit of a gamble. If the court \u2014 presided over by U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta \u2014 rules against Google, he would oversee a separate trial to decide how to fix the illegal conduct.<\/p>\n<p>In such a trial, Mehta would seek to repair the harm Google has caused \u2014 without requiring him to monitor Google\u2019s conduct.<\/p>\n<p>Two options \u2014 changing Google\u2019s distribution contracts or spinning off Chrome \u2014 do not appear likely to change Google\u2019s market share in search.<\/p>\n<p>A more effective alternative could be a free market approach in which Microsoft or other rivals \u2014 possibly powered by Generative AI \u2014 produce a search engine that works much better than Google\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, I do not see this antitrust case having a negative impact on Google\u2019s stock.<\/p>\n<p>I have requested comment from Google and will update this post if I receive a reply.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Google\u2019s Antitrust Trial<\/h2>\n<p>On September 12, a bench trial pitting the Justice Department against Google began. The DOJ and group of 38 states and territories allege the search giant monopolized the search engine market \u2014 harming rivals, consumers, and innovation, according to the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The trial could last until the middle of November. Mehta alone will decide whether to order a breakup or make changes to the way Google operates, noted the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The plaintiffs allege Google\u2019s multi-billion-dollar contracts with Apple, Samsung, and others to make its search engine the default option on web browsers and mobile phones \u201cillegally helped\u201d the search giant maintain a monopoly in that market. Google argued it competes fairly for these contracts, and \u201cusers can easily switch away from defaults,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>The DOJ alleged this case would determine \u201cthe future of the internet and whether Google will ever face meaningful competition,\u201d Justice Department lawyer Kenneth Dintzer said during his opening statement.<\/p>\n<p>Google countered by noting defaults do not lock in consumers. Indeed, Google\u2019s lead trial attorney, John Schmidtlein, claimed consumers who use Microsoft\u2019s Edge browser \u2014 which sets Microsoft\u2019s Bing as the default search engine \u2014 overwhelmingly preferred Google, noted the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">A Brief History Of The Google Antitrust Lawsuit<\/h2>\n<p>The DOJ first filed the lawsuit \u2014 which hinges on Google\u2019s contracts with device makers \u2014 in 2020. According to <em data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/richardnieva\/2023\/09\/11\/google-antitrust-trail-25th-birthday\/?sh=5d6cde0b10e4\">Forbes<\/em>, the most significant of these contracts is the one Google signed with Apple worth \u201cundisclosed billions\u201d of dollars. The <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2023\/09\/13\/business\/google-antitrust-case\/?et_rid=706014301&amp;s_campaign=todaysheadlines:newsletter\">Boston Globe<\/em><em> <\/em>reported the U.S. has alleged Google\u2019s payments for such contracts exceed $10 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The DOJ\u2019s original lawsuit claimed Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook met in 2018 to discuss how they could grow faster together. In 2018, the DOJ alleged Apple devices generated about half of Google\u2019s revenue \u2014 making the possible loss of the Apple contract a \u201cCode Red\u201d event for Google, <em>Forbes<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>On September 8, the DOJ argued Google\u2019s default distribution agreements raised the costs to device makers and other distributors of switching to a search rival\u2019s service \u2014 thereby \u201cdiminishing rivals\u2019 ability to compete,\u201d <em>Forbes<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Google views the distribution agreements as giving consumers easier access to the products they want. Kent Walker, Google\u2019s legal chief, wrote on September 8, \u201cWe plan to demonstrate at trial that our Search distribution agreements reflect choices by browsers and device makers based on the quality of our services and the preferences of consumers.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Why Consumers Choose Google<\/h2>\n<p>Why do consumers choose Google for search?<\/p>\n<p>Google argues consumers choose its product because it returns higher quality results than competitors\u2019 search engines. Chris Barton, a former Google employee hired to pitch telecom and smartphone executives to contract with the search giant, testified on September 13 that when he pitched other companies, he tended to focus on Google\u2019s \u201csuperior product\u201d and \u201csuperior monetization,\u201d according to The <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/13\/technology\/google-search-antitrust.html\">New York Times<\/em><em><br \/>\n  <fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n   NYT<br \/>\n  <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The government employed an expert witness who argued defaults drive user choice. Antonio Rangel, a behavioral economist and professor at Caltech, testified \u201cdefaults have a powerful influence on consumer decisions,\u201d noted the <em>Times<\/em>. Having a default search engine on a device such as a smartphone or PC would bias users to choosing that search engine in a \u201csizable and robust\u201d way, Rangel testified.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Why Device Makers Choose Google<\/h2>\n<p>Did device makers and others \u2014 such as web developers and wireless carriers \u2014 choose Google as its default search provider because the search giant engaged in illegal conduct?<\/p>\n<p>The plaintiffs alleged Google\u2019s contracts with these third parties illegally preserved the search giant\u2019s market leadership.<\/p>\n<p>Barton said the company paid mobile carriers a percentage of Google\u2019s advertising revenue \u201cprimarily\u201d so they would choose Google as their exclusive default search engine, according to the <em>Times.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Barton testified the aim of these contracts was to \u201cmaximize the opportunity\u201d for users to discover and regularly use Google. He said a \u201ckey thing\u201d determining whether Google paid such distributors a share of its revenue was whether<strong> <\/strong>they would make the tech giant their exclusive default search engine, the <em>Times<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Google argued its success in online search resulted from having a better product, not the default agreements. In opening statements on September 12, Google\u2019s lawyer said, \u201cit was easy for people to switch their search engine and that smartphone and browser makers promoted other search engines as well,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Why Advertisers Choose Google<\/h2>\n<p>Without advertisers, Google\u2019s search engine market leadership would not generate significant revenue. Did Google abuse its market leadership to earn that $160 billion in advertising? The DOJ has filed a second lawsuit against Google, arguing it abused a monopoly over such technology, the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Implications For Investors<\/h2>\n<p>What could happen to Google if Mehta rules in favor of the plaintiffs? What should investors when considering each possible outcome?<\/p>\n<p>If Mehta finds Google guilty, he could seek the following alternatives:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Restrict Or Alter Distribution Deal Terms<\/h3>\n<p>Mehta could require Google to give all users a choice of multiple search providers when they set up a new phone or to offer them defaults to rivals \u2014 such as DuckDuckGo or Bing.<\/p>\n<p>This probably would not work. As the <em>Globe<\/em> reported, these remedies have been ineffective against Google in the past. For example, after 2019 \u2014 when the EU required Google to give all users a choice \u2014 the search giant\u2019s market share remained at 97%. What\u2019s more, such remedies would require ongoing court monitoring.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Breakup Google By Spinning Off Chrome<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Another option would be to force Chrome \u2014 which has a dominant share of web browsing on computers and Android mobile phones \u2014 to become an independent company. Were Chrome an independent company, it \u201cmight add a different search service as its default or make changing the default option simpler,\u201d the <em>Globe<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>This is a more likely option; however, it might not require Chrome to add different search services as a default. University of Tennessee law professor Maurice Stucke told the <em>Globe<\/em>, \u201cThe remedy has to fit with the theory of how the market was harmed and be commensurate.\u201d He said a permanent split-up could \u201cbetter fit with current Supreme Court precedents\u201d than ongoing business restrictions.<\/p>\n<p>Since Google did not lose market share after the EU required it to offer other defaults on Android, were Mehta to require the company to change distribution contracts to highlight other defaults, the result would neither cost it search market share nor harm its investors.<\/p>\n<p>Since consumers seem to prefer Google to the other possible default search engines, spinning off Chrome might not hurt Google stock either.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Mehta might conclude Google legally gained its market dominance in search \u2014 which might result in a temporary relief rally in its stock.<\/p>\n<p>From there, the biggest fear for Google investors would be the outcome of the DOJ lawsuit alleging monopolistic abuse of its power in the advertising technology market.<\/p>\n<p>In the long term, the search giant\u2019s future depends on whether \u2014 in a world transformed by Generative AI \u2014 Google can deliver consumers a much more powerful search engine than ones from Microsoft and other rivals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/09\/15\/how-google-might-demonstrate-it-is-not-abusing-its-monopoly-power\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A comapny can dominate a market without being a law-breaking monopolist. While it\u2019s illegal to use your market dominance to make consumers and competitors worse off, if consumers freely choose your product over the alternatives, you have earned your market leadership legitimately. There is no question Google dominates the market for search queries. As the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-61386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>In Google\u2019s Antitrust Trial, The Tech Giant Might Show It\u2019s Not Abusing Its Monopoly Power | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A comapny can dominate a market without being a law-breaking monopolist. 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