{"id":61352,"date":"2023-09-15T09:38:21","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T13:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/loans\/yield-curve-pioneer-warns-fed-not-to-raise-rates-predicts-possible-recession-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2023-09-15T09:38:23","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T13:38:23","slug":"yield-curve-pioneer-warns-fed-not-to-raise-rates-predicts-possible-recession-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=61352","title":{"rendered":"Yield curve pioneer warns Fed not to raise rates, predicts possible recession in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Yield curve pioneer Campbell Harvey warned the Federal Reserve against raising rates again later this year, telling FOX Business on “The Claman Countdown” that a recession might still be coming in 2024.<\/p>\n

Harvey, credited with forwarding the utilization of the yield curve to predict longer-term market issues like recession, also told “The Claman Countdown” current Bureau of Labor Statistics and GDP figures might be distorted in real-time by nationwide issues like rising credit card debt.<\/p>\n

The yield curve, which depicts the ultimate yields for long-term and short-term bonds, remains inverted, host Liz Claman said, reporting that three-month treasuries appear to be paying out more than longer-term T-bills.<\/p>\n

“That’s a signal a recession is coming, but where is it?” she asked Harvey, who teaches at Duke University.<\/p>\n

BLACKROCK’S LARRY FINK ON WHY HE WON’T REFERENCE \u2018ESG\u2019 ANYMORE<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Harvey said the yield curve inversion, at 212 days thus far, is not at its average length, which he projected would be sometime in 2024.<\/p>\n

“The average length is more like 13 months, so what it’s pointing to is a recession in 2024,” he said.<\/p>\n

“I know 2023 might be a little surprising in terms of the robust GDP growth, but that’s purely driven by consumer spending, money saved up during COVID stimulus, and that’s run out.”<\/p>\n

As consumers curtail their buying and rely more and more on credit, credit card bills \u2014 which feature exponentially higher interest rates than typical borrowing \u2014 are rising steadily.<\/p>\n

“So consumption is not going to save the economy in 2024,” he said.<\/p>\n

CFO’S EXPECT ECONOMY WILL BE WORSE IN A YEAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Citing an upcoming meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee potentially leaving rates unchanged, Claman reported an approximate one-third chance the United States will see another 0.25% rate hike. She added European banks raised rates Thursday.<\/p>\n

“It’s a catastrophic error if they raise rates again,” Harvey said. “And the narrative is false \u2014 the 3.7% inflation that we got \u2014 it’s not 3.7%, and so if you look at the inflation number, a third of that inflation is driven by shelter and 70% of that inflation-print is shelter, so shelter’s running at 7.3%, and that doesn’t make any sense. It’s disconnected from the actual housing prices and rental costs.”<\/p>\n

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“If you take shelter out, inflation’s running at 1.1%, and if you put, let’s say, 1 or 2% inflation in for shelter, it’s running at 1.5%. So it’s not 3.7, it’s 1.5, and it’s because the [Bureau of Labor Statistics], when they construct inflation, they use something that’s called owners’ equivalent rent, and it’s very smooth. The numbers today are reflecting what happened two years ago,” he argued.<\/p>\n

Harvey added that the Fed potentially raising rates again, given his analysis, would push the U.S. markets into a “hard landing.”<\/p>\n

For more Culture, Media, Education, Opinion, and channel coverage, visit <\/strong><\/i>foxnews.com\/media<\/u><\/strong><\/i>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yield curve pioneer Campbell Harvey warned the Federal Reserve against raising rates again later this year, telling FOX Business on “The Claman Countdown” that a recession might still be coming in 2024. Harvey, credited with forwarding the utilization of the yield curve to predict longer-term market issues like recession, also told “The Claman Countdown” current […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[240],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-61352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loans","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nYield curve pioneer warns Fed not to raise rates, predicts possible recession in 2024 | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yield curve pioneer Campbell Harvey warned the Federal Reserve against raising rates again later this year, telling FOX Business on "The Claman Countdown"\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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