{"id":60593,"date":"2023-09-13T16:19:29","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T20:19:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/will-verizon-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-highs\/"},"modified":"2023-09-13T16:19:33","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T20:19:33","slug":"will-verizon-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=60593","title":{"rendered":"Will Verizon Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/vz\/\">Verizon stock<\/strong> currently trades at $34 per share, 43% below the levels seen on May 10, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high). Verizon saw its stock trading at around $51 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and has lost about 33% since. In comparison, the S&amp;P 500 gained 18% during this period. Verizon is being impacted by slower growth in the wireless phone space following the easing of Covid-19, while competition has also been mounting with carriers doling out aggressive promotions to add customers. Separately, rising interest rates have also likely made dividend stocks, such as Verizon, a bit less attractive to investors, while also making highly leveraged companies a bit more risky.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, Verizon stock has had a Sharpe Ratio of <strong>-0.3<\/strong> since early 2017, well below the <strong>0.6<\/strong> for the S&amp;P 500 Index over the same period. This also falls short of the <strong>Sharpe of 1.3<\/strong> for the Trefis Reinforced Value portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.<\/p>\n<p>Now, returning to the pre-inflation shock level would mean that Verizon stock will have to gain 75% from here. However, we estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/VZ\/no-login-required\/earRzLuN\/Verizon-VZ-Valuation-Is-VZ-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230913\">Verizon\u2019s valuation<\/strong> to be around $41 per share, about 22% ahead of the current market price. While we believe Verizon can expand its earnings, driven by more premium plans and the winding down of its expensive 5G build-out, the stock could see some headwinds due to economic uncertainties. Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/VZ\/no-login-required\/scnhkLWV\/Verizon-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-VZ-Stock-Has-75-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230913\">Verizon\u2019s upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022. It compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: An increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers were unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt the supply chain.<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. The S&amp;P 500 index declined more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how Verizon stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Verizon and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Verizon stock declined from a little over $42 in September 2007 to just $27 as of March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying the stock lost nearly 37% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered from the 2008 crisis to levels of around $31 in early 2010, rising roughly 16% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Verizon Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Verizon\u2019s revenues rose from around $132 billion in 2019 to about $137 billion in 2022 led by higher demand for wireless data services following Covid-19 and the expansion of the company\u2019s 5G network. Verizon\u2019s earnings also rose from around $4.66 per share in 2019 to $5.06 in 2022 driven by higher sales.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does Verizon Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Verizon\u2019s total debt increased from $111 billion in 2019 to about $153 billion presently, while its total cash stood at under $5 billion as of the most recent quarter. It also garners about $38 billion in cash flows from operations. Although the company\u2019s cash holdings are relatively low, its stable cash flows put it in a reasonably healthy condition financially.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe Verizon stock has the potential for reasonably strong gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. That said, fears of a potential recession and concerns about competition could weigh on the company\u2019s returns in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/09\/13\/will-verizon-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-highs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Verizon stock currently trades at $34 per share, 43% below the levels seen on May 10, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high). Verizon saw its stock trading at around $51 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and has lost about 33% since. In comparison, the S&amp;P 500 gained 18% during [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-60593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Verizon Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Highs? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Verizon stock currently trades at $34 per share, 43% below the levels seen on May 10, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high). 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