{"id":59701,"date":"2023-09-11T16:30:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-11T20:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/why-apples-310-billion-market-value-decline-is-concerning-for-warren-buffett\/"},"modified":"2023-09-11T16:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-09-11T20:30:05","slug":"why-apples-310-billion-market-value-decline-is-concerning-for-warren-buffett","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=59701","title":{"rendered":"Why Apple&#8217;s $310 Billion Market Value Decline Is Concerning For Warren Buffett"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Investors have cut $310 billion \u2014 or 10% \u2014 from Apple\u2019s peak market capitalization of $3.1 trillion in late July.<\/p>\n<p>Two news items \u2014 China\u2019s ban on central government employees use of the iPhone and a surprise Chinese rival Huawei\u2019s new products aimed at the iPhone 15 \u2014 have contributed to the drop in Apple\u2019s market value, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/tech\/apples-china-dependency-spooks-investors-after-ban-3ad4f23c?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The 10% drop could be the tip of the iceberg.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because Apple\u2019s growth is slowing down and shows no sign of accelerating. Steve Jobs\u2019 second turn as CEO yielded faster revenue and stock price growth. But under his successor, Tim Cook \u2014 given the slower revenue growth over which he has presided since 2011 \u2014 Apple enjoyed a disproportionate boost in its stock price.<\/p>\n<p>How so? During Jobs\u2019 second time as CEO \u2014 from 1997 to 2011, Apple revenue grew at a 21.5% average annual rate, to $108 billion\u2014 while its stock rose at a 36% annual rate. Since Tim Cook became CEO, Apple\u2019s revenue has moved up at a 12.5% average annual rate to $394.3 billion in 2022 \u2014 while its stock increased at a 23% annual rate.<\/p>\n<p>Does the $310 billion drop in its market capitalization make Apple stock a screaming buy? I see three reasons its shares could fall further:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Disappointing third quarter results and forecast.<\/li>\n<li>China IPhone sales are poised to drop.<\/li>\n<li>The company fails to create new products with high-growth potential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Warren Buffett \u2014 who likes the tech giant\u2019s $573 billion in stock buybacks since 2012 \u2014 should take his Apple profits. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has 45.6% of its portfolio in Apple stock, according to Yahoo! Finance.<\/p>\n<p>I requested a comment from Apple and will update this post if I receive a reply.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Disappointing Third Quarter Results And Forecast<\/h2>\n<p>Apple\u2019s top line is slowly shriveling. According to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/apple-aapl-q3-earnings-report-2023-46673f8f\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>, Apple\u2019s sales declined in its latest quarter (ending June 2023) for the third quarter in a row. Its biggest product, the iPhone, decreased 2.4% \u2014 falling $500 million below analyst expectations of $40.2 billion.<\/p>\n<p>While Apple happily pointed out its growing lines of business, they did not make up for the decline in iPhone sales \u2014 which account for half its revenue. For example, Apple\u2019s services revenue \u2014 from streaming music, TV products, and software bought in the App Store \u2014 \u201creached a new all-time high of $21 billion,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported. Sadly, at a little more than half the size of the iPhone, services growth could not offset Apple\u2019s top line fall.<\/p>\n<p>Apple did not provide specific guidance for its fourth quarter ending in September 2023. According to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/03\/apple-earnings-live-updates.html\">CNBC<\/em>, since 2020, the company has not provided guidance due to \u201cuncertainty.\u201d Its stock fell further last month after CFO Luca Maestri said Apple \u201cexpected revenue to decline in the September quarter,\u201d <em>CNBC <\/em>reported.<\/p>\n<p>Maestri told investors the tech leader \u201cexpects its iPhone and services businesses to accelerate year-over-year.\u201d Meanwhile analysts estimated Apple\u2019s fourth quarter revenue will increase less than 1% to $90.2 billion, wrote the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Apple\u2019s Growth In China<\/h3>\n<p>Cook was thrilled with Apple\u2019s performance in China \u2014 which is Apple\u2019s third largest geographic market. Revenue there grew 7.9% to $15.8 billion \u2014 $2.2 billion more than analysts estimated. Cook told investors Chinese consumers switching to the iPhone from a competitor were \u201cat the heart of our results there,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Cook also waxed eloquent about Apple\u2019s sales in India. While acknowledging Apple\u2019s low market share, he told investors India is the world\u2019s second largest smartphone market and the company is putting \u201call our energies\u201d into capturing a large share of the opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>Yet Apple\u2019s performance in both countries has room for improvement.<\/p>\n<p>In China, Apple\u2019s iPhone did not compete effectively against rival products. According to \u201cApple in China and India,\u201d a business school case I co-authored with Sam Hariharan, Apple forecast a 5% drop in total revenue in early 2019 due to a loss of market share in China. Compared to rivals such as Huawei, the iPhone was over-priced, lacked the popular WeChat app, and was missing other features Chinese consumers craved.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Apple\u2019s Improvement In India Does Not Move The Needle On Revenue Growth<\/h3>\n<p>In India, Apple also fell short. Its revenues there were far below the company\u2019s 2020 goal of $5 billion in revenue, according to <em>Apple in China and India<\/em>. Apple entered the Indian smartphone market in 2008 and a decade later it had a mere 2.5% share of the market. There are many reasons why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Overpriced product ($1,040).<\/strong> Apple\u2019s least expensive iPhone for the Indian market \u2014 the iPhone 9 \u2014 was priced way above the $150 average smartphone price there.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weak manufacturing strategy. <\/strong>The tech giant incurred a 20% tariff because it did not make its iPhones in India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short battery life.<\/strong> The iPhone battery was too short-lived for the long commutes in India.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Poor customer service. <\/strong>Apple\u2019s partners delivered terrible service.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High turnover.<\/strong> The company suffered high executive turnover. In 2019, Ashish Chowdhary became Apple\u2019s third India general manager since 2016.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Apple\u2019s smartphone market share in India improved over the next five years. In September 2023, Apple was poised to finish the year with a 7% share of the Indian smartphone market, according to <em>Business Insider India<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>In the first half of 2023, Apple iPhone shipments grew 68%. The company dominated the super-premium smartphone segment (priced between $600 and $1,200) with a 63% share of that high-end category, <em>Business Insider India<\/em> reported. Apple has made significant strides in its manufacturing in India initiative.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Apple\u2019s India business is a rounding error for the tech giant and its $394 billion in 2022 revenue. Corporate filings in the country suggest Apple\u2019s sales totaled around $4 billion in fiscal year 2022. In April 2023, <em>Bloomberg<\/em> reported Apple\u2019s revenue in India totaled nearly $6 billion in the year ending in March, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">China IPhone Sales Are Poised To Drop<\/h2>\n<p>The iPhone has recently enjoyed relatively high growth in China. However, last week, two significant news events suggested Apple\u2019s fortunes there are going to get worse.<\/p>\n<p>The first event was China\u2019s ban on the use of iPhones by central government employees. Through chat groups or meetings, staff in China learned from managers they should not bring their iPhones into work or use them for business.<\/p>\n<p>This ban \u2014 on which Apple has not commented as of this writing \u2014 also applies \u201cto a swath of employees at state-owned companies in the space and energy industries,\u201d the <em>Journal <\/em>reported.<\/p>\n<p>Xiaomeng Lu, a director at risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said Apple will probably try to understand the government\u2019s concerns and address them through \u201cbehind the scenes\u201d communication with the Chinese government. \u201cThey are very good at this game and Tim Cook is very proactive on this type of thing,\u201d Lu added, according to the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Dan Morgan, a senior portfolio manager at Apple investor Synovus, expressed concern the iPhone could join the chip industry in becoming a political football between China and India. Morgan said \u201cit would be worrisome if a similar dynamic emerged for Apple that exists in the chip industry, which has suffered a geopolitical tit-for-tat with trade sanctions being imposed by both countries,\u201d the <em>Journal <\/em>reported.<\/p>\n<p>The second piece of news was the surprisingly fast reemergence of Huawei as a rival to Apple in the Chinese smartphone market. Due to Western sanctions on critical chip technology in 2020, Huawei had to withdraw from China for several years. As a result, its market share in China fell from 27% in 2020 to 11% by September 2023, <em>Reuters<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>That worked out well for Apple \u2014 which was able to step in and dominate the premium smartphone market in China.<\/p>\n<p>All that appeared to be changing last week, when <em>Reuters <\/em>reported<em> <\/em>Huawei \u201cmade a surprising return\u201d to fast cellular wireless and began selling two more high-end models \u2014 the foldable Mate X5 and the Mate 60 Pro+. Huawei could ship 12 million Mate 60 phones in the next year, according to <em>Reuters<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>These models were equipped<em> <\/em>with chips from the Chinese semiconductor manufacturer, SMIC, noted the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/07\/business\/iphone-ban-apple-china.html\">New York Times<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>. Huawei\u2019s high-end models could compete with Apple\u2019s soon-to-be-released iPhone15, the <em>Journal <\/em>wrote.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Failure To Create New Products With High Growth Potential<\/h2>\n<p>After a revenue decline in 2023, can any new Apple products restore the nearly 22% average annual revenue growth over which Steve Jobs presided between 1997 and 2011? I don\u2019t know, but here is why I am skeptical:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Most of its upcoming product launches tweak existing ones \u2014 such as the Mac, iPhone, and iPad. Each of them experienced declining revenue in the latest quarter \u2014 drops of 7%, 2.4%, and 20% respectively, according to<em> CNN<\/em>. Due to the \u201cincremental nature\u201d of these products, investors do not expect them to lift Apple\u2019s stock, according to <em>Investor\u2019s Business Daily.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Its major new hardware product \u2014 the Apple Vision Pro, a virtual reality headset \u2014 is expensive ($3,499) and not expected to contribute meaningful revenue quickly. In July, Apple cut its 2024 production to 150,000 units, according to <em data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/siladityaray\/2023\/07\/03\/apple-will-reportedly-make-fewer-than-400000-vision-pro-headsets-next-year-due-to-production-snags\/?sh=5e1778f21f58\">Forbes<\/em><em> \u2014 <\/em>one-tenth of the company\u2019s original estimate.<\/li>\n<li>The long-rumored Apple Electric Vehicle, about which I co-authored a recently published case, appears likely to remain a rumor for the foreseeable future.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Apple Stock Goes From Here<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the absence of revenue growth drivers, Apple stock will rise in the view of analysts. How so? Thirty Wall Street analysts set a median price of $206.86 \u2014 a 16.1% increase from where Apple stock closed September 8, according to <em>TipRanks<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Low-growth forecasts are the best thing Apple investors have going for them. If Apple reveals faster than expected growth when it reports its results for the September-ending quarter, its shares will rise.<\/p>\n<p>The bad news for Apple\u2019s iPhone business in China and the lack of investor enthusiasm for its new products make that harder to pull off.<\/p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett should take heed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/09\/10\/why-apples-310-billion-market-value-decline-is-concerning-for-warren-buffett\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors have cut $310 billion \u2014 or 10% \u2014 from Apple\u2019s peak market capitalization of $3.1 trillion in late July. Two news items \u2014 China\u2019s ban on central government employees use of the iPhone and a surprise Chinese rival Huawei\u2019s new products aimed at the iPhone 15 \u2014 have contributed to the drop in Apple\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-59701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Apple&#039;s $310 Billion Market Value Decline Is Concerning For Warren Buffett | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investors have cut $310 billion \u2014 or 10% \u2014 from Apple\u2019s peak market capitalization of $3.1 trillion in late July. 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