{"id":5925,"date":"2023-05-08T18:28:16","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T22:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/cars-com-guides-to-tenuous-growth-as-credit-availability-questions-rise-nysecars\/"},"modified":"2023-05-08T18:28:17","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T22:28:17","slug":"cars-com-guides-to-tenuous-growth-as-credit-availability-questions-rise-nysecars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=5925","title":{"rendered":"Cars.com Guides To Tenuous Growth As Credit Availability Questions Rise (NYSE:CARS)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>A Quick Take On Cars.com<\/h2>\n<p>Cars.com Inc. (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:CARS<\/span>) reported its Q1 2023 financial results on May 4, 2023, beating revenue but missing EPS consensus estimates.<\/p>\n<p>The firm operates an online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> of used cars in the U.S. and providing other related value-add services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Given increasing economic slowdown risks, reduced credit availability concerns and an apparently mostly-full valuation of Cars.com Inc. at its current level, I\u2019m Neutral [Hold] on CARS stock in the near term.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Cars.com Overview &amp; Market<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Chicago, Illinois-based Cars.com was founded in 1998 to connect used car buyers with sellers in the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The firm is headed by president and CEO Alex Vetter, who has been with the firm since 1998 and was previously in business development at Classified Ventures and the Tribune Company.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The company\u2019s primary offerings<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> are aimed at integrating its consumer-facing website with automobile dealerships to enable customers to access advanced shopping features and value-added services, including financial services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to a 2022 market research report by Mordor Intelligence, the U.S. market for used automobiles was estimated at $196 billion in 2021 and is forecast to reach $302 billion by 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This represents a forecast CAGR of 7.51% from 2022 to 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">An important driver for this expected growth is a return to normalcy after supply chain shocks due to the pandemic and other factors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, a rising interest rate environment has reduced automobile affordability for certain consumers, leading to variability in demand and price in recent months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Major competitive or other industry participants include:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>CarGurus, Inc. (CARG)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarMax (KMX)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>TrueCar (TRUE)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarBravo<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AutoNation (AN)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AutoTrader.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>KBB.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Edmunds.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarsDirect.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarFinder.com.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Cars.com Recent Financial Trends<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Total revenue by quarter has risen moderately as the chart shows below:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681875791492.png\" alt=\"Total Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Total Revenue <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Gross profit margin by quarter has trended slightly lower:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681877172287.png\" alt=\"Gross Profit Margin\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Gross Profit Margin <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue by quarter have dropped slightly recently:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1683568187837236.png\" alt=\"Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Operating income by quarter has been variable but trending higher:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681877832015.png\" alt=\"Operating Income\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Operating Income <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Earnings per share (Diluted) have risen markedly in the last two quarters:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681879269838.png\" alt=\"Earnings Per Share\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Per Share <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(All data in the above charts is GAAP.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the past 12 months, CARS\u2019 stock price has risen 89.8% vs. that of CarGuru\u2019s drop of 45.37%, as the chart indicates below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681882447562.png\" alt=\"52-Week Stock Price Comparison\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">52-Week Stock Price Comparison <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For the balance sheet, the firm ended the quarter with only $18.8 million in cash and equivalents and $454.1 million in total debt, of which $15.4 million was categorized as the current portion due within 12 months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Over the trailing twelve months, free cash flow (&#8220;FCF&#8221;) was an impressive $106.9 million, of which capital expenditures accounted for $19.4 million. The company paid $23.1 million in stock-based compensation (&#8220;SBC&#8221;) in the last four quarters, the highest amount in the last eleven-quarter period.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation And Other Metrics For Cars.com<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Measure [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Amount<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>9.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Price \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>5.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>EBITDA %<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>24.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Market Capitalization<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$1,180,000,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$1,610,000,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$126,290,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$0.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Below is an estimated DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis of the firm\u2019s projected growth and earnings:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681896522403.png\" alt=\"Discounted Cash Flow Calculation\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Discounted Cash Flow Calculation <span>(GuruFocus)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Assuming generous DCF parameters, the firm\u2019s shares would be valued at approximately $19.23 versus the current price of $17.76, indicating they are potentially currently slightly undervalued, with the given earnings, growth, and discount rate assumptions of the DCF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As a reference, a relevant partial public comparable would be CarGurus; shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Metric [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>CarGurus<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Cars.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Variance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>173.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>10.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>9.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-2.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>74.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>5.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-92.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>11.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-68.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$256,110,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$126,290,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-50.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha.)<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Commentary On Cars.com<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In its last earnings call (Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha), covering Q1 2023\u2019s results, management highlighted the growth of average revenue per dealer [ARPD] of 4% year-over-year but continued low inventory levels and &#8220;dynamic fluctuating vehicle prices.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The St. Louis Federal Reserve\u2019s tracking of U.S. used auto and truck prices indicates a materially falling price index in recent months, from a high of around 215 to its current approximation of 183, a drop of nearly 15%, as shown in the chart below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1683568189003874.png\" alt=\"Used Auto And Truck Price Index\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Used Auto And Truck Price Index <span>(St. Louis Federal Reserve)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Management characterized its dealer customer churn as &#8220;some&#8221; in response to recent price increases, but indicated that once they explain the additional features coming with new option packages, the firm is &#8220;seeing good take rates.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Total revenue for Q1 rose 5.6% year-over-year, yet gross profit margin fell by 1.2 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">SG&amp;A as a percentage of revenue dropped 1.6 percentage points year-over-year while operating income rose 13.6%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking ahead, management reaffirmed its previous full-year 2023 revenue growth expectation of 4.5% at the midpoint of the range and expects to exit Q4 2023 &#8220;with margins approaching 30%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company&#8217;s financial position is a study in contrasts, with low liquidity, $454 million in debt but impressive free cash flow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Regarding valuation, the market has rewarded Cars.com Inc.\u2019s stock price in the past 12 months, but my discounted cash flow calculation suggests that the stock may be almost fully valued at its present level given generous valuation assumptions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The primary risk to the company\u2019s outlook is a macroeconomic slowdown which appears to be underway and made worse by contracting credit availability to consumers, which may reduce consumer ability to purchase used vehicles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From management\u2019s most recent earnings call, I prepared a chart showing the frequency of key terms mentioned (or not) in the call, as shown below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1683568193914545.png\" alt=\"Earnings Transcript Key Terms Frequency\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Transcript Key Terms Frequency <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I\u2019m most interested in the frequency of potentially negative terms, so management cited &#8220;Challeng[es][ing]&#8221; one time and &#8220;Drop&#8221; two times in various contexts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the past twelve months, the firm&#8217;s EV\/EBITDA valuation multiple has risen by over 22%, as the chart from Seeking Alpha shows below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16835681939249728.png\" alt=\"EV\/EBITDA Multiple History\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">EV\/EBITDA Multiple History <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given increasing economic slowdown risks, reduced credit availability concerns and an apparently most full valuation of CARS at its current level, I\u2019m Neutral [Hold] on Cars.com Inc. stock in the near term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4601660-carscom-guides-to-tenuous-growth-as-credit-availability-questions-rise?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Quick Take On Cars.com Cars.com Inc. (NYSE:CARS) reported its Q1 2023 financial results on May 4, 2023, beating revenue but missing EPS consensus estimates. The firm operates an online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of used cars in the U.S. and providing other related value-add services. Given increasing economic slowdown risks, reduced credit availability [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-5925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Cars.com Guides To Tenuous Growth As Credit Availability Questions Rise (NYSE:CARS) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Quick Take On Cars.com Cars.com Inc. 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