{"id":58636,"date":"2023-09-08T16:15:46","date_gmt":"2023-09-08T20:15:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/the-chances-of-a-u-s-recession-are-rising-says-former-goldman-sachs-strategist-abby-joseph-cohen\/"},"modified":"2023-09-08T16:15:48","modified_gmt":"2023-09-08T20:15:48","slug":"the-chances-of-a-u-s-recession-are-rising-says-former-goldman-sachs-strategist-abby-joseph-cohen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636","title":{"rendered":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

\n \u201c<\/span>While I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d<\/span>\n <\/p>\n


\n \u2014 Abby Joseph Cohen, former Goldman Sachs partner and Columbia Business School professor<\/span>
\n <\/small><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Those are the words of Abby Joseph Cohen, former chief U.S. strategist at Goldman Sachs, who discussed her forecasts for the U.S. economy over the next 12 to 18 months with CNBC\u2019s \u201cSquawk Box\u201d on Friday morning. <\/p>\n

While a recession may no longer be the base case for many investors and analysts, the likelihood of an economic downturn have actually been rising in recent months, Cohen said in a CNBC interview. <\/p>\n

\n

Cohen compared current economic conditions with 18 months ago when everyone was concerned about what would happen as the Federal Reserve started its campaign of raising interest rates to curb inflation, even as the economy held up well due to a strong consumer sector supported by savings from the government\u2019s stimulus payments and the suspension of student loan repayments during the pandemic while the labor market remained healthy. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut where are we now? The tailwinds quite frankly, have gotten weaker,\u201d she said. \u201cThat doesn\u2019t mean that we\u2019re heading into a recession anytime soon, but I think we are in a situation where things are not quite as easy as they might have been 18 months ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cohen also thinks it will be \u201cmore difficult\u201d to forecast the U.S. economy over the next 12 to 18 months as political issues during an election year may weigh on the outlook. <\/p>\n

See:<\/strong> Congress returns to face shutdown fears \u2014 here\u2019s what it means for markets<\/p>\n

For example, if the Sept. 30 deadline for the Congress to pass a new federal budget deal is not met there is a chance of a government shutdown. <\/p>\n

\u201cEven though the Republicans in the Senate and the Republican leadership in the House are saying they\u2019d like to come to terms and have a budget deal by the end of this month, there are a few Republicans in the House who say they\u2019d like to create a little bit of friction,\u201d Cohen said. \u201cIf we don\u2019t have a budget deal and the government shuts down, there are all kinds of consequences that are very hard to quantify.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cohen pointed to problems associated with social security payments and how the rest of the world would view U.S. Congress which could be \u201csomewhat dysfunctional again\u201d after the debt-ceiling standoff earlier this year. \u201cIt could be pressure for dollar, it could be pressure on the Treasury, for reasons not having to do with the economy,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Funding for the federal government is set to run out by the end of September unless action is taken by Congress. With less than a month to go until the deadline, the White House last week called on Congress to pass a short-term \u201ccontinuing resolution\u201d to keep the government funded past Sept. 30, avoiding the fourth shutdown in a decade.<\/p>\n

The last government shutdown occurred under former President Donald Trump from Dec. 2018 to Jan. 2019.<\/p>\n

See:<\/strong> Government shutdown could hurt Republicans\u2019 chances in 2024 election, analysts say<\/p>\n

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday as Wall Street managed to recover from four-session losing streak for the Nasdaq Composite
\n COMP.<\/span>
\n The S&P 500
\n SPX
\n logged 1.3% of weekly decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
\n DJIA
\n was off 0.8% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9% for the week, according to FactSet data.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph Cohen, former Goldman Sachs partner and Columbia Business School professor Those are the words of Abby Joseph Cohen, former chief U.S. strategist at Goldman Sachs, who discussed her forecasts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53866,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-58636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nThe chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1693223527_social.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"News Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\"},\"headline\":\"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\"},\"wordCount\":593,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\",\"name\":\"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00\",\"description\":\"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"description\":\"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"width\":558,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Repay Down\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\",\"name\":\"News Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"News Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld","description":"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld","og_description":"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph","og_url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636","og_site_name":"iFintechWorld","article_published_time":"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":640,"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1693223527_social.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"News Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"News Room","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636"},"author":{"name":"News Room","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61"},"headline":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen","datePublished":"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00","dateModified":"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636"},"wordCount":593,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Featured"],"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636","name":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen | iFintechWorld","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-09-08T20:15:46+00:00","dateModified":"2023-09-08T20:15:48+00:00","description":"\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months\u201d \u2014 Abby Joseph","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=58636#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The chances of a U.S. recession are rising, says former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","name":"Repay Down","description":"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization","name":"Repay Down","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","width":558,"height":90,"caption":"Repay Down"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61","name":"News Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","caption":"News Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com"],"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58636"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58636\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58637,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58636\/revisions\/58637"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/53866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}