{"id":5671,"date":"2023-05-08T08:01:36","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T12:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/buffett-predicts-a-downturn-inflation-data-and-earnings-will-indicate-its-severity\/"},"modified":"2023-05-08T08:01:37","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T12:01:37","slug":"buffett-predicts-a-downturn-inflation-data-and-earnings-will-indicate-its-severity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=5671","title":{"rendered":"Buffett Predicts a Downturn. Inflation Data and Earnings Will Indicate Its Severity."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"SB52171210309545174040404589606493894776298\">\n<p>The strength of the U.S. labor market continues to keep the threat of recession at arm\u2019s length, for now.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs in April, above the 185,000 expected. The stock market loved it.<\/p>\n<p>The employment data hit the sweet spot. Downward revisions to February and March employment data meant the jobs report wasn\u2019t strong enough to point to another Fed hike, while the hot April reading quelled recession fears.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>Concern still lingers though, particularly as the banking turmoil appears to be sticking around, although regional banks continued to rebound in premarket trading early Monday. <\/p>\n<p>Adding to the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve\u2019s job is getting increasingly difficult. The central bank has moved to a more data-dependent approach, which opens the door to multiple outcomes. <\/p>\n<p>The market is pretty convinced that last week\u2019s interest-rate hike will be the last of the current cycle. Inflation data due Wednesday\u2014April\u2019s consumer price index\u2014will play a key role in whether that proves to be the case.<\/p>\n<p>The latter stages of earnings season will provide further insight into the health of the economy, with PayPal, Airbnb, and Disney among those reporting this week.<\/p>\n<p>Warren Buffett sees a downturn coming, predicting earnings to decline at the majority of Berkshire Hathaway\u2019s businesses, at the company\u2019s annual meeting Saturday. Berkshire is considered an economic bellwether given the breadth of its U.S.-oriented exposure. <\/p>\n<p>First-quarter earnings in general appear to back up Buffett\u2019s forecast, though things have been nowhere near as bad as expected. S&amp;P 500 companies are having their best earnings season relative to analysts\u2019 expectations since the end of 2021, according to FactSet. The index is on track for a 2.2% annual earnings decline\u2014at the end of March analysts were predicting a 6.7% drop.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps more significantly, 58% of companies issuing full-year guidance have delivered a positive surprise. The economy is continuing to defy recession forecasts.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2014Callum Keown<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>*** Join Barron\u2019s senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when they speak with Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Try your hand at this morning\u2019s Barron\u2019s digital jigsaw, which is based on the week\u2019s cover story. For all games, including the daily crossword and sudoku, click here.<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Updates This Week: PayPal, Disney, Airbnb and More<\/h2>\n<p>This week features earnings from PayPal Holdings, Airbnb, and Walt Disney among other reports. The economic highlight will come Wednesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Economists forecast a 5% increase in the CPI for the month, matching the March gain. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5.4%, <strong>slightly less than previously<\/strong>. Both indexes are well below their peaks from last year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n        Disney<br \/>\n       reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results on Wednesday. Analysts expect earnings per share of 95 cents on revenue of $21.8 billion, including $14.1 billion from media and entertainment. The company\u2019s battle with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over a tax district continues with a <strong>lawsuit and countersuit<\/strong> filed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n        PayPal<br \/>\n       reports today after the closing bell. Analysts expect the payments firm to report EPS of $1.10 on revenue of nearly $7 billion. Active accounts are seen rising to 437.7 million, while total payment volume is expected <strong>to dip to $344.8 billion<\/strong> from the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n        Airbnb<br \/>\n       will report Tuesday. Analysts expect EPS of 21 cents on revenue of $1.79 billion. Gross booking value for the <strong>hosting and experiences site <\/strong>is expected to be $20.1 billion, up from the fourth quarter and last year\u2019s first quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for May on Friday. Economists forecast a dour 62.6 reading, about one point lower than in April, as inflation expectations remain high.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer and Barron\u2019s staff<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Lawmakers Wrestle With Debt Limit Ahead of Meeting<\/h2>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday there were \u201cno good options\u201d to resolve Washington\u2019s debt ceiling crisis other than Congress raising it in the next few weeks. Democrats are scrounging for alternatives as President Joe Biden plans to meet Tuesday with congressional leaders.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Biden is expected to <strong>bless bipartisan spending negotiations<\/strong>, but still ask Congress to raise the debt limit without other conditions, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the plans. Brian Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, said the meeting would kick-start more substantive negotiations behind the scenes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Yellen said the U.S. must act \u201cto avoid economic calamity.\u201d Last week, Yellen said the government\u2019s ability to maneuver around the $31.4 trillion limit, which it hit in January, could come to an end <strong>as early as June 1<\/strong>. Democrats want a bill that raises the ceiling without conditions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Some constitutional scholars have floated the idea of using the 14th Amendment of the Constitution as <strong>justification to continue to issue debt<\/strong>. A clause says the validity of public debts \u201cshall not be questioned.\u201d Yellen told ABC\u2019s <em>This Week<\/em> that could spark a constitutional crisis.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Forty-three Republican senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, signed a letter saying they <strong>won\u2019t support raising the limit<\/strong> \u201cwithout substantive spending and budget reforms.\u201d Their position makes a clean debt-ceiling lift less likely, because it would need 60 votes in the 100-member chamber.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Biden administration officials have begun exploring a short-term extension through Sept. 30. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) told NBC\u2019s <em>Meet the Press<\/em> he doesn\u2019t consider that a responsible alternative, but he didn\u2019t rule it out. \u201cWe have to avoid default. Period. Full stop,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer and Janet H. Cho<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Berkshire Hathaway\u2019s Warren Buffett Shares Investing Strategies, Advice<\/h2>\n<p>\n        Berkshire Hathaway<br \/>\n       CEO Warren Buffett told shareholders at Saturday\u2019s annual meeting that opportunities come from \u201cother people doing dumb things.\u201d In 58 years of running Berkshire, he and his lieutenant Charlie Munger have seen \u201ca great increase in the number of people doing dumb things.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The meeting showcased companies Berkshire acquired over six decades, including See\u2019s Candies, where costs jumped 30% over the past year but <strong>sales remain strong<\/strong>, CEO Pat Egan told <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em>. At Brooks Sports, sales hit a record of $1.3 billion in 2022, and should grow in the high-single digits in 2023. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      On the latest bank turmoil, Buffett said bank executives and board members <strong>should face consequences<\/strong> if a business encounters problems after taking risks they shouldn\u2019t have. Berkshire is cautious on the sector, holding shares of<br \/>\n        Bank of America<span>,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        Citigroup<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       and<br \/>\n        U.S. Bancorp<br \/>\n      after selling stakes recently.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Buffett said he was impressed with generative AI\u2019s abilities to summarize legal opinions, but <strong>worries about its potential consequences<\/strong>, saying: \u201cWe won\u2019t be able to uninvent it,\u201d The Wall Street Journal reported. Munger added: \u201cI think old-fashioned intelligence works pretty well.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Munger, who has previously criticized consultants and compensation specialists, <strong>took aim<\/strong> at the wealth management industry on Saturday, saying there are too many people pursuing careers in the business.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Although Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of<br \/>\n        Occidental Petroleum<br \/>\n       and<br \/>\n        Chevron<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       Buffett said it isn\u2019t going to buy control of Occidental. He praised<br \/>\n        Apple<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       Berkshire\u2019s biggest stock investment, as \u201ca better business than any we own,\u201d saying customers would rather give up their second car than their iPhones.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Nicholas Jasinski and Janet H. Cho<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>These Jobs Could Be Most Affected by AI Chatbots<\/h2>\n<p>The explosive rise of generative artificial intelligence chatbots has people wondering what jobs will be affected as companies as diverse as International Business Machines (IBM) and the education technology firm Chegg brace for the impact to their own operations.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n        IBM<br \/>\n       is pausing hiring in areas, such as human resources, where AI could <strong>replace human workers<\/strong>.<br \/>\n        Chegg<span>\u2019s<\/span><br \/>\n       shares were cut in half after it warned of slower growth and are down nearly 60% so far this year. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Professors from Princeton University, the University of Pennsylvania, and New York University analyzed the occupations that <strong>may be most vulnerable<\/strong> and listed telemarketers, loan officers, and law clerks, but also sociologists, political scientists, arbitrators, and mental health counselors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Interior designers are most exposed to AI\u2019s image generation skills, followed by architects, chemical engineers, and art directors. It doesn\u2019t mean these professions are over, however. The researchers are agnostic as to whether generative AI complements or <strong>substitutes certain labor<\/strong>. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n        Duolingo<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       which has been using AI since 2020 to deliver personalized language lessons for app users, has <strong>incorporated OpenAI\u2019s GPT-4<\/strong> in its newly launched subscription tier, Duolingo Max, which costs $30 a month compared with $7 for Super Duolingo.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> In a recent survey by business service platform Tidio, 64% of respondents think chatbots, robots, or AI can replace teachers in the future. Still, many believe certain qualities, such as empathy and good listening skills, may be difficult to substitute. <\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer and Evie Liu<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<h2>MarketWatch Wants to Hear From You<\/h2>\n<p>What could happen on June 1 if the U.S. debt ceiling isn\u2019t raised?<\/p>\n<p><em>A MarketWatch correspondent will answer this question soon. Meanwhile, send any questions you would like answered to thebarronsdaily@barrons.com<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<p><em>\u2014Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O\u2019Donnell, Rupert Steiner<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/articles\/what-to-know-today-a3d90a67?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The strength of the U.S. labor market continues to keep the threat of recession at arm\u2019s length, for now. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs in April, above the 185,000 expected. The stock market loved it. The employment data hit the sweet spot. Downward revisions to February and March employment data meant the jobs report [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-5671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Buffett Predicts a Downturn. Inflation Data and Earnings Will Indicate Its Severity. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The strength of the U.S. labor market continues to keep the threat of recession at arm\u2019s length, for now. 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