{"id":55942,"date":"2023-09-01T21:22:20","date_gmt":"2023-09-02T01:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/coinbase-stock-bitcoin-wont-lift-shares-problems-run-much-deeper\/"},"modified":"2023-09-01T21:22:23","modified_gmt":"2023-09-02T01:22:23","slug":"coinbase-stock-bitcoin-wont-lift-shares-problems-run-much-deeper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=55942","title":{"rendered":"Coinbase Stock: Bitcoin Won’t Lift Shares. Problems Run Much Deeper."},"content":{"rendered":"

A wager on crypto takes a strong stomach. Throw in uncertain court rulings and a battle royale with Wall Street giants, and it gets more treacherous.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For the foreseeable future, that\u2019s what investors are getting in the stock of
\n Coinbase Global
\n (ticker: COIN), the largest U.S.-based crypto trading platform. While there is a bull case on the stock, it isn\u2019t worth the gamble.<\/p>\n

\n

Coinbase has been a superstar this year, rising more than 135%. The gains have come on the back of
\n Bitcoin,<\/span>
\n up 65%, and a 35% rally in tech stocks. But Coinbase has also benefited from some key crypto legal rulings, including a federal court decision this past week that could open the door to a spot-based Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The prospect of a Bitcoin ETF tantalizes Wall Street and Coinbase bulls alike. Several fund companies, including Fidelity Investments and
\n BlackRock
\n (BLK), are clamoring to launch Bitcoin ETFs. If they get the green light, some experts say, it could funnel billions of dollars into crypto\u2014pushing up demand for Bitcoin and other tokens, and unleashing a gusher of fees. <\/p>\n

But investors shouldn\u2019t extrapolate the court wins and bout of exuberance into a long-term bull case for Coinbase. The Securities and Exchange Commission could still throw up roadblocks to a Bitcoin ETF\u2014indicating this past week that it would delay a decision until at least October. Coinbase\u2019s regulatory problems run deep, including a lawsuit filed by the SEC over its core trading business. Other revenue drivers look dicey. And more money flowing into crypto will heat up competition for investments, chipping away at trading fees.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe regulatory and litigation risk encompasses most of the business,\u201d says Berenberg analyst Mark Palmer. \u201cThe stock is really uninvestible at this stage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Founded in 2012, Coinbase now runs a multifaceted crypto business. Trading revenue brought in $327 million in the second quarter, about half its net sales. Coinbase also earned more than $200 million of interest income largely from its partnership with USDC, the second-largest stablecoin on the market. Smaller business lines\u2014but ones that analysts see as prime candidates for expansion\u2014include cloud services and a high-yield token \u201cstaking\u201d product.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve built critical infrastructure that\u2019s going to facilitate this growth and let a thousand flowers bloom,\u201d said Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas in an interview with Barron\u2019s<\/em>. <\/p>\n

Yet despite building a premier crypto platform, Coinbase has hardly been a winning stock. At about $83, it trades far below its opening price of $381 on its first day of trading in 2021. Its market cap is $20 billion, down from a closing high of $86 billion.<\/p>\n

The declines mirror the malaise in crypto, still reeling from the FTX scandal and a collapse in token prices. And a recovery in Bitcoin this year hasn\u2019t fueled a profit rebound for Coinbase. While the company boomed during the crypto rally of 2021\u2014posting net income of $3.6 billion\u2014it has since reported consecutive quarterly losses adding up to $2.8 billion as of June 30. Sales have gone from $7.8 billion in 2021 to an estimated $2.9 billion this year, according to consensus forecasts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Coinbase\u2019s trading volume remains depressed. Between the first and second quarter, volume on its platform declined 37% to $92 billion, leaving it 58% below the second quarter of 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Coinbase now faces two major headwinds: a hostile SEC, which has sued the company, and stiffer competition from fund companies and brokerages.<\/p>\n

As the SEC sees it, Coinbase is operating an unregistered securities exchange. The agency for years has said Bitcoin falls outside its purview. But virtually all other tokens, in SEC Chair Gary Gensler\u2019s view, are securities whose issuers need to register. The SEC\u2019s case, filed in June, centers on 12 such tokens, as well as Coinbase\u2019s staking service, but in essence, Gensler\u2019s argument is that the bulk of Coinbase\u2019s business violates the law.<\/p>\n

Coinbase and token issuers say there\u2019s no legitimate path to register with the agency. By extension, if courts side with the SEC, it could effectively shut down much of the U.S. crypto market. The industry would need to restructure how it does business and stop offering many products to U.S. customers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Muddying the waters, judges in related cases have made conflicting rulings. A federal judge in July, for instance, sided with crypto firm Ripple Labs, suggesting that most token transactions don\u2019t meet the legal test to qualify them as securities. Then, a judge in the same district a couple of weeks later directly contradicted the earlier judge\u2019s reasoning, in a case against a different crypto firm.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor most tokens, a fair-minded lawyer could write both sides of the case,\u201d says Philip Moustakis, a former SEC enforcement attorney whose clients now include crypto firms. \u201cSome of us may be retiring from the law before this is over.\u201d<\/p>\n

Coinbase is trying to move things along faster. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal says the company has asked the judge to quickly resolve the fundamental issue of what crypto transactions fall under securities laws. The company is also lobbying Congress to pass legislation that would clarify the rules.<\/p>\n

\u201cA multifront approach gets us to clarity sooner rather than later. But the process, regardless of how long it will take, we think will ultimately provide answers that we\u2019ve been asking for for some time,\u201d Grewal says.<\/p>\n

Coinbase, meanwhile, aims to operate business as usual, including plans to expand. The firm in August received regulatory approval to offer futures products to U.S. customers. It also launched its own blockchain, dubbed Base, that will pull in fees from crypto developers.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is going to evolve,\u201d says Haas, adding that the \u201cgoal is to be innovating, drive more users on our platform,\u201d and \u201cfollow how our customers behave.\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem is that the core trading business is suffering. Fees haven\u2019t fallen as fast as transaction volume, but that\u2019s because the company has been able to increase the \u201ctake rate\u201d it earns on trades. Some analysts think that can\u2019t last as competition heats up, especially since Coinbase already seems to be losing market share to lower-cost brokers like
\n Robinhood Markets
\n (HOOD).<\/p>\n

Company executives argue that Coinbase will make up for declining trading revenue by entrenching itself in the crypto ecosystem. Haas says many companies will bring on Coinbase as a partner rather than build blockchain apps and services from scratch. \u201cThere\u2019s just not enough crypto engineers, frankly, in the world that can rebuild all of this architecture at every single major financial institution,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

The stock still has its fans on Wall Street. MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis, for one, views Coinbase as a \u201cpicks and shovels\u201d play on crypto becoming a major part of the world economy. She expects the court case, while costly in the near term, will ultimately clarify U.S. crypto regulation, lifting the legal overhang on the stock. Wall Street\u2019s expansion into crypto, she adds, should lift all boats.<\/p>\n

For now, though, trading is the primary reason customers come to Coinbase. And without it coming back, the other services may not take off, says
\n J.P. Morgan
\n analyst Ken Worthington. \u201cIf trading isn\u2019t popular, the ancillary businesses are not going to grow over the longer term,\u201d says Worthington, who rates the stock Neutral with a $64 target.<\/p>\n

The stock still isn\u2019t cheap; it trades at more than seven times estimated 2023 sales, above its valuation before the crypto crash wiped out much of Coinbase\u2019s revenue and profits.<\/p>\n

Competition, meanwhile, is getting tougher. Fidelity recently launched retail crypto accounts to buy Bitcoin. Robinhood already earns more transaction revenue from crypto than it does from stocks. Fund companies like Cathie Wood\u2019s ARK Investment Management,
\n Invesco
\n (IVZ), and BlackRock could soon offer Bitcoin ETFs. If you want to buy a little Bitcoin directly, you can always go through
\n PayPal Holdings
\n (PYPL) or
\n Block\u2019s<\/span>
\n (SQ) Cash App.<\/p>\n

Even if Coinbase resolves its litigation, it \u201cwouldn\u2019t represent a permanent reprieve,\u201d says Berenberg\u2019s Palmer. \u201cIt would only invite competition from traditional players that are extremely well capitalized.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shorting the stock may be tempting, but it is high risk. Short interest is high, at about 14.5% of the stock\u2019s float. That makes it vulnerable to a squeeze, whereby prices shoot up on a whiff of positive news. Positive headlines regularly send the stock up by double digits. Don\u2019t expect those gains to last.<\/p>\n

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A wager on crypto takes a strong stomach. Throw in uncertain court rulings and a battle royale with Wall Street giants, and it gets more treacherous.\u00a0 For the foreseeable future, that\u2019s what investors are getting in the stock of Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN), the largest U.S.-based crypto trading platform. While there is a bull case […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-55942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nCoinbase Stock: Bitcoin Won't Lift Shares. Problems Run Much Deeper. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A wager on crypto takes a strong stomach. 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