{"id":55760,"date":"2023-09-01T11:36:20","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:36:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/pce-inflation-report-bang-on-expectations\/"},"modified":"2023-09-01T11:36:24","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:36:24","slug":"pce-inflation-report-bang-on-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=55760","title":{"rendered":"PCE Inflation Report Bang On Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>July\u2019s PCE headline and core inflation both ticked higher but in line with analyst predictions<\/li>\n<li>Investors are increasingly confident of a pause in interest rates from the Fed in September<\/li>\n<li>The three major markets were mixed at the data set, with more jobs stats to come on Friday<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It\u2019s that time of the month again: the inflation reports are coming out thick and fast, with the PCE inflation results the next in line. They revealed pretty much what economists and Wall Street analysts expected, with core inflation edging slightly higher and further cementing the view that inflation will be hard to tackle at this stage.<\/p>\n<p>What happens next with interest rates? As always, it\u2019s a delicate balancing act between helping and harming the economy for the Federal Reserve. With the markets again choosing to look at the bright side, it was a solid stock trading day. Here\u2019s the latest.<\/p>\n<p><em>In a world where inflation looms large, securing your portfolio is paramount. Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em> offers a smart selection of inflation-resistant assets, including TIPS, commodities and precious metals, to help cushion against market turbulence. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><em>With our AI engine crunching numbers and analyzing trends, you can rest assured that the Kit&#8217;s allocation remains optimized to weather the storms of inflation. It\u2019s not just about preserving capital; it\u2019s about helping your investments thrive, even when living costs increase.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/iXFUi8zoICb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What did the PCE inflation report say?<\/h2>\n<p>The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which is the Fed\u2019s preferred measure of inflation, reflected an inflationary environment fueled by resilient consumer spending. July\u2019s core inflation score, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.2% annually compared to 4.1% in June, in line with analyst estimates. Headline PCE arrived at 3.3% in July, a slight increase on June\u2019s 3% figure.<\/p>\n<p>Higher inflation is bad, right? It\u2019s more nuanced than that; if we dig into the details, it\u2019s not as damaging as it seems. Price growth was only at a slight 0.2% growth rate for July, which is good news because we\u2019re not looking for massive leaps upward.<\/p>\n<p>The breakdown between goods and services is also vital to note &#8211; a 0.4% increase in services primarily drove July\u2019s headline inflation result, while goods decreased 0.3% despite food and energy prices rising slightly during the month. Goods have now fallen for four out of the last five months.<\/p>\n<p>But the results weren\u2019t entirely free of concerns. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report recorded a $144.6 billion extra in consumer spending for July compared to the month before. Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.8% in total, up from the 0.7% forecasted by economists.<\/p>\n<p>Personal savings levels also fell to 3.5% in July, a sharp decrease from the 4.3% recorded in June. U.S. households clearly had that summer feelin\u2019 as they increased spending on recreational items, pharmaceuticals and groceries. Financial services and insurance drove the services uptick.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Are there any other inflation stats?<\/h2>\n<p>The path forward looks murkier once you add the PCE results to the broader inflationary picture. August\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index result came in at 106.1, which was sharply downwards from July\u2019s downwardly revised result of 114 and well below the 116 estimate analysts had predicted.<\/p>\n<p>Consumer sentiment towards the short-term health of the U.S. economy also wavered, with expectations dropping to 80.2 in August from 88 the month before. Volatile price fluctuations in food and energy, plus jobs being harder to come by, were the root causes for the decline named by respondents.<\/p>\n<p>After 18 months of showing surprising resilience, there\u2019s also evidence that the jobs market is finally succumbing to high interest rates and inflation pressures. U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest levels in two-and-a-half years in July, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report recording a 338,000 decline to 8.8 million job openings.<\/p>\n<p>The most significant drop was in the professional and business services sector, where nearly 200,000 fewer job openings were reported. Resignations have also dropped to their lowest levels since early 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Friday\u2019s jobs report is expected to further reflect this cooling off of the red-hot labor market. Consensus estimates suggest net job gains will be in the region of 170,000, and the unemployment rate will hold steady at 3.5%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The market reaction<\/h2>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly to 4.09% and the two-year yield declined to 4.88%, which left major growth stocks higher during Thursday trading. Amazon<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AMZN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/amazon\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  AMZN<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> climbed 2.2% and Tesla<fbs-ticker data-name=\"TSLA\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/tesla\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  TSLA<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> rose 0.4%.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones initially rose at the news during Thursday trading, but both finished the day lower at 0.16% and 0.48% down, respectively. The Nasdaq recorded a slight 0.11% gain.<\/p>\n<p>All three of the indexes posted a loss for August after a dismal mix of uncertainty over China\u2019s economy and fears around prolonged monetary tightening and higher bond yields sent stocks plunging. The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.8%, the Dow Jones dropped 2.4% and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What\u2019s happening with U.S. interest rates?<\/h2>\n<p>Interest rates are currently at a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, which is the highest level in 22 years. But there\u2019s a possibility these have peaked, pending the coming months\u2019 inflation data. The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks sentiment on where the Fed might take monetary policy, is now at an 89% possibility of holding interest rates steady in September.<\/p>\n<p>As for the rest of the year, investors are less confident about what might happen next. There\u2019s a current 53% probability of rates holding steady again versus a 42% possibility they could increase further.<\/p>\n<p>But bringing down inflation isn\u2019t going to happen quickly. In his speech at Jackson Hole last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasized that there\u2019s still a long road ahead. \u201cWe are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,\u201d Powell said.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>The latest PCE report wasn\u2019t much of anything &#8211; there wasn\u2019t a clear winner or loser, though it\u2019s positive for the Fed that the price of goods continues to drop. When you add the results to the bigger picture, it appears the monetary tightening policy is slowly making its way to consumer spending and jobs, both of which have remained red-hot until now.<\/p>\n<p>What comes next is a battle of wills. Wall Street wants to see interest rates come down as quickly as possible, but the Fed can\u2019t risk calling off the struggle too soon or risk inflation rising again. In short? None of this is over any time soon.<\/p>\n<p><em>Battling inflation&#8217;s erosive effects requires more than wishful thinking; it needs a calculated strategy. Q.ai&#8217;s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em> provides a portfolio rich in diversified assets typically known for inflation resilience, such as TIPS, commodities and even precious metals.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Our sophisticated AI algorithm operates like a financial sentry, monitoring market shifts and reallocating assets on a risk-adjusted basis to optimize for both capital preservation and growth. Consider this your financial shield to help you build wealth in an age of high inflation.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/vOn4KByoICb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/09\/01\/pce-inflation-report-bang-on-expectationswhere-does-that-leave-us-interest-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways July\u2019s PCE headline and core inflation both ticked higher but in line with analyst predictions Investors are increasingly confident of a pause in interest rates from the Fed in September The three major markets were mixed at the data set, with more jobs stats to come on Friday It\u2019s that time of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-55760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>PCE Inflation Report Bang On Expectations | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key takeaways July\u2019s PCE headline and core inflation both ticked higher but in line with analyst predictions Investors are increasingly confident of a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=55760\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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