{"id":54098,"date":"2023-08-28T18:03:11","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T22:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/why-i-believe-that-newmont-could-triple-nysenem\/"},"modified":"2023-08-28T18:03:16","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T22:03:16","slug":"why-i-believe-that-newmont-could-triple-nysenem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=54098","title":{"rendered":"Why I Believe That Newmont Could Triple (NYSE:NEM)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Introduction<\/h2>\n<p>It&#8217;s time to talk about <strong>Newmont Corporation (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:NEM<\/span>)<\/strong>, the world&#8217;s second-largest gold mining corporation.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past three years, shares have fallen 40% (excluding dividends), underperforming the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) by roughly 10 points. Gold prices are<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> down less than 2% during this period. In this case, I&#8217;m using the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (<\/span>GLD<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">) as a proxy.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_fcbadcb255b2eb5da9e9f3c543f737cf.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">More recently, gold miners have been hurt by falling gold prices, sticky inflation, and related mining risks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">While we&#8217;re likely stuck in a period of sticky inflation, the single biggest bull case is further deteriorating economic growth, which could force the Fed to cut rates. Once that happens, I expect a very steep increase in NEM&#8217;s stock price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Now, let&#8217;s dive into the details!<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">What&#8217;s Up With Newmont?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Newmont is a giant. In the second quarter, the company<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> produced 1.2 million ounces of gold and 256,000 gold equivalent ounces from various metals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This translated to nearly $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA and over $650 million in cash from continuing operations.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-16932343146293511.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Newmont Corporation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, the company has an attractive leverage ratio of 0.7x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Solid margins were sustained due to higher realized gold prices and consistent direct costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Despite these achievements, the company had to acknowledge challenges during the quarter and make four pivotal decisions.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Firstly, operations at Pe\u00f1asquito were suspended due to a dispute with the Union regarding a profit-sharing agreement, leading to strike action.<\/li>\n<li>Secondly, the \u00c9l\u00e9onore mine was evacuated due to wildfires, necessitating care and maintenance. As the map below shows, this mine is in Canada, where major wildfires are raging.<\/li>\n<li>Thirdly, safety inspections were carried out at Cerro Negro, temporarily pausing mining operations.<\/li>\n<li>Lastly, at Akyem, a decision was made to process lower-grade stockpiles earlier than planned for optimal mine plan execution.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-16932329316946468.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Newmont Corporation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Having said that, and with regard to the map above, while the company saw challenges, I like NEM&#8217;s assets, as it&#8217;s one of the best mines with limited geopolitical risks. Most of its gold is produced in Tier 1 mines, with major production in low-risk jurisdictions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company&#8217;s dominant position is also a result of the major A$28.8 takeover of Australian Newcrest Mining.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-16932331966729991.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It also comes with other major benefits in light of the energy transition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to Bloomberg (emphasis added):<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>Newmont\u2019s acquisition adds more exposure to gold at a time when bullion is testing a record high, and the deal <strong>will crucially also boost its resources of copper \u2014 a metal where demand is expected to outpace supply<\/strong> as the transition away from fossil fuels gathers pace.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, with regard to some of the challenges I mentioned in the introduction:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>Gold miners worldwide are facing the prospect of s<strong>tagnating production as they contend with harder-to-mine deposits and rising input costs<\/strong>. That\u2019s seen as a catalyst for more mergers and acquisitions, as companies seek to increase their size to boost volumes and improve efficiencies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Based on this context, Newmont believes it can ramp up production in the second half of 2023, primarily driven by increased grades and tonnes mined across various locations, including Subika underground and Ahafo open pit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Cerro Negro&#8217;s expansion and Tanami&#8217;s higher-grade ore also contribute to the positive outlook.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So, despite challenges, Newmont remains on track to meet its annual production guidance with the support of non-managed joint ventures Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking at its five-year outlook, the company is looking to boost production to the range of 6.1 to 6.7 million ounces per year, lowering all-in-sustaining costs to no more than $1,100.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-16932339918145971.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Newmont Corporation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With that in mind, NEM is also a source of income for many investors.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Dividend<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the second quarter, Newmont declared a dividend of $0.40 per share or $1.60 per share annually, consistent with the previous two quarters.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_e4209550bb6669bef5aff4202e429027.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This dividend translates to a 4.1% yield.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to the company, the dividend falls within the 2023 dividend payout range of $1.40 to $1.80 per share.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While its dividend isn&#8217;t very consistent, Newmont has maintained a dividend yield exceeding 3% for 11 consecutive quarters, maintaining its position with the highest dividend per share in the gold sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There&#8217;s also a lot of upside for the dividend if gold prices soar. Looking at the data below, we see that the company increases its free cash flow (operating cash flow after investments in its business) by $400 million for every $100 increase in the price of gold (per troy ounce).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-1693235187676422.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Newmont Corporation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking at the overview below, we see the aforementioned $1.40 to $1.80 dividend range again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this case, the company has a $1.00 base dividend, backed by a gold price of $1,400.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company adjusts its dividend based on $300 changes in the gold price. So, based on current gold prices (roughly $1,900), the dividend range is $1.40 to $1.80.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_2321155f0463e8dbb3f7087cfae8e15f.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That number is likely to rise significantly to the $2.00 to $3.00 range if gold rises $100 &#8211; and remains elevated.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Based on this context, I believe that NEM could see a scenario of much higher gold prices.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Why I&#8217;m Bullish On Gold<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I have a bullish view on gold prices for one major reason: the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While I&#8217;ve been contrarian in my belief that both rates and inflation will remain elevated\/sticky on a prolonged basis, we&#8217;re now at a point where economic growth might become so poor that the Fed may be forced to cut at some point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While housing and employment indicators are still holding up nicely, leading indicators like the ISM Manufacturing\/Services Indices are pointing at significant weakness down the road.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_b4aaac4bc609e0db6e45c63f03318a91.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">At this point, it&#8217;s important to note that one major driver of gold prices is future rate expectations. The chart below compares the gold price (black line) to the difference between March 2025 SOFR futures and one-month forward SOFR futures.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/31557165-16932364646122787.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>TradingView (Gold, SOFT March 25 &#8211; SOFT Next Month)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Essentially, SOFR is the replacement of LIBOR. It&#8217;s a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities in the repurchase agreement (&#8220;repo&#8221;) market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If the line increases, it means that investors expect borrowing costs in the future to decline relative to the short-term outlook.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This hints at easing financial conditions, which is bullish for gold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Gold took off shortly after this line accelerated last year. It&#8217;s also falling in tandem with the spread this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Hence, if economic growth reaches a point where the market prices in more aggressive rate cuts, gold is the place to be &#8211; according to this theory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In such a scenario, I expect gold prices to rise beyond $3,000 per troy ounce, which would be great for NEM and its dividend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">On top of that, NEM is currently in the worst period of underperformance versus its peers in more than a decade, which is fueled by M&amp;A uncertainty.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_ca7c399611730273a9ccabca594fe5d8.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I believe this offers opportunities &#8211; on top of my bullish view.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">NEM shares are currently trading at $39. The consensus price target is $55. I believe that NEM is a $120 stock if my thesis turns out to be correct. If gold rises to $3,000, the company could get an additional $6-$7 billion in incremental free cash flow. That would warrant this valuation, as it would indicate a high-double-digit free cash flow yield close to 20%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_NEMw113825295i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FINVIZ<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, that&#8217;s a longer-term outlook, which could take 2-3 years to unfold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Even if I&#8217;m less bullish, I believe that NEM shares are significantly undervalued at current prices.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Takeaway<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Despite recent challenges and underperformance, Newmont&#8217;s robust assets and strategic acquisitions position it for a promising future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A blend of consistent margins, prudent decisions, and solid production levels form a solid foundation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The potential for an economic downturn leading to rate cuts could prove to be the much-awaited trigger for NEM&#8217;s stock surge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amidst the complexities of gold prices and inflation, NEM also offers a promising income source with dividends and growth potential.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given the bigger picture, I believe NEM offers a tremendous long-term risk\/reward, which could lead to very high gains over the next 2-3 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I&#8217;m looking to add NEM to my trading portfolio soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4631600-why-i-believe-that-newmont-could-triple?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction It&#8217;s time to talk about Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), the world&#8217;s second-largest gold mining corporation. Over the past three years, shares have fallen 40% (excluding dividends), underperforming the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) by roughly 10 points. Gold prices are down less than 2% during this period. In this case, I&#8217;m using the SPDR Gold [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-54098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why I Believe That Newmont Could Triple (NYSE:NEM) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Introduction It&#039;s time to talk about Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), the world&#039;s second-largest gold mining corporation. 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