{"id":53058,"date":"2023-08-25T17:05:03","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T21:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/phillips-66-what-to-make-of-its-4-yield-nysepsx\/"},"modified":"2023-08-25T17:05:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-25T21:05:08","slug":"phillips-66-what-to-make-of-its-4-yield-nysepsx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=53058","title":{"rendered":"Phillips 66 – What To Make Of Its 4% Yield (NYSE:PSX)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/picture>
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Introduction<\/h2>\n

In May, I wrote an article titled Phillips 66: Harvesting Juicy Energy Dividends<\/em>. Since then, the stock has risen by 23%, almost hitting my first $120 target in recent days.<\/p>\n

\"Finviz<\/picture>
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FINVIZ<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Hence, in this article, we’ll take a closer look at the attractiveness of <\/span>Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX<\/span>)<\/strong> in light of the new risk\/reward. After all, the yield has now come down to 3.7%, which isn’t that juicy anymore.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, without further ado, let’s keep this intro short and get right to it!<\/p>\n

A Well-Diversified Downstream Giant<\/h2>\n

With a market cap of $50 billion, Houston-based Phillips 66 is one of America’s three major pure-play refinery stocks. Its main peers are Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC). I’m saying pure-play because it also has competition from integrated oil and gas companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and others.<\/p>\n

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\"Chart\"
Data by <\/span>YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

One of the reasons why PSX has lagged behind its peers is its focus on other areas. As I wrote in my prior article, the company generated 66% of its full-year 2022 revenues in the Marketing & Specialties segment, followed by Refining (25%) and Midstream (9%).<\/p>\n

As a result, it has one of the most well-diversified portfolios among its peers – anywhere in the world. This includes major operations on the Gulf Coast and a pipeline network connecting other facilities to customers. On the Gulf Coast alone, it has the capacity to process more than 520 thousand barrels of crude per day.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

With regard to its strategic priorities (as seen in the overview below), over the past year, the company returned 14% of its market capitalization ($5.4 billion) to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.<\/p>\n

The company is on track to achieve the goal of returning $10 to $12 billion over the 10-quarter period from July 2022 to year-end 2024.<\/p>\n

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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

The Refining segment contributed significantly to the cost savings that make this possible, with over $300 million of the $550 million run-rate savings attributable to Refining operations.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, according to the company (emphasis added):<\/p>\n

\n

We’re executing our NGL wellhead to market strategy and capturing DCP integration synergies faster than expected<\/strong>. Our current synergy run rate is over $200 million. We’ve been successful in identifying additional opportunities to increase our target from $300 million to more than $400 million by 2025. In June, we completed the acquisition of DCP Midstream’s public common units for $3.8 billion, increasing our economic interest from 43% to 87%<\/strong>. We ended the quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 35%<\/strong>. We expect leverage to be within our target range by year-end.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

A closer look at its balance sheet shows that the company has $8.6 billion in available liquidity, $3.0 billion of this coming from cash. Its net debt ratio is close to 1.2x (EBITDA) and is expected to remain subdued. Hence, it has an A3\/BBB+ credit rating.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Furthermore, in addition to advancing the renewable fuels project at its San Francisco refinery to produce 50,000 barrels per day of renewable fuels, the company is seeing improvements in its Chemicals segment.<\/p>\n

During its 2Q23 earnings call, the completion of the 1-hexene unit in Texas and the impending start of operations by the end of the third quarter were mentioned.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the new propylene splitter at the Cedar Bayou facility is expected to begin operations in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

Please note that the company’s chemical operations under CP Chemical are a joint venture between Phillips 66 and Chevron. As seen in the overview below, this segment is seeing a steep increase in CapEx to grow the segment more rapidly in the future – hopefully with economic tailwinds.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

The company is also actively engaged in joint ventures with Qatar Energy to establish significant petrochemical facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Qatar.<\/p>\n

PSX Dividends & Buybacks<\/h2>\n

Phillips 66 currently pays a $1.05 dividend per share per quarter. This translates to a yield of 3.7%.<\/p>\n

This dividend is protected by a 21% net income payout ratio, a healthy balance sheet, and a boatload of free cash flow.<\/p>\n

The company is expected to maintain a free cash flow yield of over 9% through 2025 – despite an expected moderation in free cash flow. Even including net debt (FCF\/EV), that ratio remains elevated.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Leo Nelissen (Based on analyst estimates)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

The chart below confirms this, as dividend payments are just a very small part of operating cash flow. The biggest part is spending on growth.<\/p>\n

Even sustaining CapEx is very low, which means once growth spending declines, free cash flow is likely to accelerate.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Additionally, the company has a history of buybacks. Since the spin-off from ConocoPhillips (COP), the company has spent more on buybacks than dividends, buying back close to 30% of its shares.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

The five-year dividend CAGR was 6.6%. The most recent hike was 8.2% on February 8, 2023.<\/p>\n

Recent Events & Valuation<\/h2>\n

Adjusted earnings decreased by $199 million during the second quarter, primarily due to lower results in Refining and Midstream.<\/p>\n

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\"Image\"<\/span>
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Phillips 66<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

While Refining’s adjusted pretax income decreased by $460 million, Midstream’s adjusted pretax income was down $52 million due to declining commodity prices in the NGL business.<\/p>\n

Chemicals’ adjusted pretax income decreased by $6 million.<\/p>\n

Marketing and Specialties, however, experienced a $218 million increase in adjusted second-quarter pretax income due to higher global marketing margins.<\/p>\n

Going forward, in Chemicals, a mid-90s global O&P utilization rate is expected in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

For Refining, a mid-90s worldwide crude utilization rate is expected, along with projected turnaround expenses of $110 to $130 million.<\/p>\n

Corporate and Other costs for the third quarter are estimated to be between $280 million and $300 million.<\/p>\n

During its earnings call, the company also mentioned that the full-year capital spend is expected to exceed the $2 billion budget due to additional spending on projects like Rodeo Renewed and the recent acquisition of West Coast marketing assets.<\/p>\n

While margin normalization is somewhat hurting refining income and slower economic growth should keep a lid on organic growth in chemicals, the company remains in a good spot.<\/p>\n

The company is trading at 8.9x 2024E free cash flow. Using the 10x multiple I applied in the past gives us a 13% upside.<\/p>\n

The current consensus price target is $127. That’s 12% above the current price, in line with my target.<\/p>\n

However, I wouldn’t jump into PSX at these prices. While I will apply a Buy<\/em> rating, the recent stock price jump has lowered the dividend yield to 3.7%. That’s not a lot, given the cyclical risks that come with it – despite consistent dividend growth.<\/p>\n

If I didn’t own Valero already, I would be looking to buy PSX for close to $100 per share.<\/p>\n

Given the weakness in economic growth, I do not rule out reaching that target.<\/p>\n

Takeaway<\/h2>\n

Phillips 66, with its diversified downstream portfolio and strategic priorities, stands as a significant player in the industry.<\/p>\n

The company’s well-managed balance sheet, commitment to shareholder returns, and ongoing projects underscore its resilience.<\/p>\n

However, the recent price surge prompts caution, as the cyclical nature of the energy sector calls for prudent evaluation of the risk\/reward.<\/p>\n

While my Buy<\/em> rating is maintained, the current dividend yield may not satisfy income-focused investors.<\/p>\n

Should the market offer an opportunity to buy shares around $100, the cyclical risks might be better cushioned.<\/p>\n

As economic uncertainties persist, the journey to that mark could well be worth the wait.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Introduction In May, I wrote an article titled Phillips 66: Harvesting Juicy Energy Dividends. Since then, the stock has risen by 23%, almost hitting my first $120 target in recent days. FINVIZ Hence, in this article, we’ll take a closer look at the attractiveness of Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) in light of the new risk\/reward. After […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-53058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nPhillips 66 - What To Make Of Its 4% Yield (NYSE:PSX) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Introduction In May, I wrote an article titled Phillips 66: Harvesting Juicy Energy Dividends. 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