{"id":52662,"date":"2023-08-24T20:25:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T00:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/heres-what-whartons-jeremy-siegel-expects-to-hear-from-powells-jackson-hole-speech\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T20:25:24","modified_gmt":"2023-08-25T00:25:24","slug":"heres-what-whartons-jeremy-siegel-expects-to-hear-from-powells-jackson-hole-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=52662","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s what Wharton\u2019s Jeremy Siegel expects to hear from Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech"},"content":{"rendered":"

As inflation-adjusted U.S. bond yields climb to their highest levels in nearly 15 years, some investors are wondering whether owning stocks is still \u201cworth it\u201d over the long haul. <\/p>\n

The answer, according to University of Pennsylvania Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel, is, \u201cYes, absolutely.\u201d <\/p>\n

\n

Long-term gains for stocks have historically outpaced those for bonds by a substantial margin, even during periods in markets history where yields were much higher than they are today. Siegel argued that\u2019s reason to ignore short-term price fluctuations, including the selloff that has caused the S&P 500
\n SPX
\n to trim its year-to-date gain by roughly five percentage points over the past three weeks, according to FactSet data. <\/p>\n

And with higher interest rates and stronger workforce productivity expected to become permanent features of the U.S. economy, Siegel says the outlook for stocks compared to bonds is becoming more compelling, not less.<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly the gap between bonds and stocks has narrowed from what it has been in recent years, but there\u2019s still a decided advantage to owning stocks,\u201d Siegel said Monday in a phone interview. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, as investors wait to hear from Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday, Siegel said he doesn\u2019t expect much of a market reaction, likely because the central bank still has a month\u2019s worth of economic data to digest before its next meeting. <\/p>\n

However, he\u2019s curious about whether Powell will weigh in on signs that economic growth in the U.S. is accelerating. <\/p>\n

The following is an edited and condensed version of MarketWatch\u2019s interview with Siegel:.<\/p>\n

MarketWatch:<\/strong> What do ordinary investors misunderstand about the long-term benefits of owning stocks compared with bonds?<\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> Let me mention that 2% a year [on inflation-protected 10-year Treasurys
\n 912828Z377
\n ] is good, it\u2019s the biggest in more than a decade. But at that rate, it takes 36 years to double your money. At a 20 price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, you get a 5% yield on real assets. That means with stocks, it will take 14 years to double your money after inflation. In other words, by the time you\u2019ve doubled your money in bonds, you\u2019ve multiplied it by nearly five times in stocks. So, people who tell me bonds are as good as stocks \u2014 there\u2019s just no way, for long-term wealth creation. <\/p>\n

Does that mean investors should ignore those big, fantastic yields on the 2-year note? 5% on the 2-year note comes out to 2%, or maybe 3%, after inflation. In two years, anything can happen. The stock market could go down by 10% or 20%. But I\u2019m not talking about the short term, I\u2019m talking about longer-term wealth building, particularly if you\u2019re young and you\u2019re building a retirement account. That\u2019s what really counts. <\/p>\n

And 2% after inflation is only attractive compared with recent history. When TIPS [Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities] first came out in 1997, they were at 3.5% and then went above 4%. While 2% is certainly better than five or 10 years ago, it\u2019s still not all that great compared with history. <\/p>\n

MarketWatch:<\/strong> What\u2019s the case for sticking with stocks through periods of elevated inflation? <\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> I think this is important because a lot of people are confusing yields on bonds, which are nominal yields, which means they do not factor in inflation, with stocks, which are based on real assets like land, property, machines, trademarks, copyrights, the value of which does rise with inflation.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re planning a long-term portfolio, a retirement portfolio, a portfolio for a young, working person or child, the advantage in stocks is still overwhelming.<\/p>\n

The two assets that will over the long run beat inflation are real estate and stocks, because they\u2019re both real assets. That\u2019s why both of them are viewed favorably now. I want to hold real assets, I don\u2019t want to hold paper assets. <\/p>\n

MarketWatch<\/strong>: Where do you think interest rates are heading over the long term? <\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> One of the things you learn is real interest rates do track real growth. With population growth falling, productivity over the last few quarters had been way down. But now productivity is improving, and rising productivity and stronger growth mean the Fed won\u2019t be able to cut rates as much as it would otherwise be able to. It may only be able to lower them to 2.5% or 3%, or maybe even 3.25% on Fed funds [the Fed\u2019s benchmark policy rate target]. When all this is over, then you might be seeing 3% or 3.25% long term on Fed funds.<\/p>\n

MarketWatch:<\/strong> What do you think we\u2019ll hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later this week when he speaks at Jackson Hole? <\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> There\u2019s a lot of tension and Powell has moved markets in the past. I do not think that the inflation scenario has changed that much from 3\u00bd weeks ago when we heard Powell in his news conference following the last FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s still a full month of inflation data, of payroll data, before the September meeting and Powell said they\u2019re going to be data dependent. As a result, his talk may disappoint those who are expecting a big market-moving event. <\/p>\n

See: <\/strong>Jackson Hole: Fed\u2019s Powell could join rather than fight bond vigilantes as yields surge<\/p>\n

I think he will basically say their work is not yet done. They\u2019re not down to where they need to be. However, they have made a lot of progress, the labor market has slowed but GDP hasn\u2019t because, as I mentioned, there\u2019s been a huge surge in productivity. <\/p>\n

And when productivity growth spurs GDP growth, it isn\u2019t inflationary, in fact, it\u2019s deflationary. <\/p>\n

We will see how Powell interprets the positive news on growth. I hope he doesn\u2019t fear it to be inflationary. I hope he recognizes that the rise in yields will slow certain industries, particularly housing\u2026that\u2019s further reason he shouldn\u2019t move up the short-term rate because the long-term rate is doing some of the work for him. <\/p>\n

MarketWatch: <\/strong>Speaking of Powell, how many more hikes do you expect we\u2019ll see from the Fed? <\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> Right now, Powell is very self-satisfied because even the Fed is surprised at the fact that the labor market has remained strong and GDP growth has remained strong, despite these rate hikes. If we get a negative jobs report, you know what the press will do with that. However, as long as these reports continue with 200,000 [jobs created a month], with unemployment remaining stable, there\u2019s no downside for him to keep on hiking if he wants to. The public doesn\u2019t see a connection until they see a connection. <\/p>\n

But in my opinion, if you ask the American public whether they would rather have 1 percentage point or two percentage points less on inflation for a year or two, or have a million or a million-and-a-half more unemployed, they\u2019re going to say that while they\u2019re not happy with the price increases, that that would be the better option. <\/p>\n

If we do see a slowdown and Powell keeps on going up and up, I think there will be a negative payroll report and that will grab headlines. Then, Powell\u2019s phone will be ringing off the hook with angry Democrats. They\u2019re riding on this fact that we\u2019re slowing inflation without unemployment. If that disappears, a major part of their case for re-election is threatened.<\/p>\n

My feeling is that, especially considering the rise in long-term rates, that the Fed shouldn\u2019t raise rates again. Then again, if they raise rates another quarter of a percentage point, would it be the worst thing in the world? No \u2014 so long as they\u2019re extremely responsive, and keep a close eye on the real-time indicators showing that things are slowing. These are the things that they ignored in 2021 \u2014 unforgivably, in my opinion \u2014 that should have told them that this was a permanent, not a transitory, rise in inflation. <\/p>\n

I\u2019m talking about commodity prices falling, home prices falling, initial jobless claims going up. These are the very early warning signs of a slowdown. And Powell has said he\u2019s become more appreciative of real-time data.<\/p>\n

MarketWatch:<\/strong> How do you feel about the notion that \u201cr-star\u201d \u2014 or the neutral rate of interest \u2014 has moved higher for good, and as a result, we won\u2019t be seeing rock-bottom interest rates again soon? The Wall Street Journal discussed the concept in a story published over the weekend. <\/p>\n

Siegel:<\/strong> I\u2019ve actually written a bit on this. There are several reasons for it. One of them is faster economic growth. Last December, almost nobody expected GDP growth of 2% or higher. The Fed was at 0.9%, optimistic people were at 1.5%. Now, of course, the expectation is for the third quarter we could see growth north of 2.5%.<\/p>\n

Faster economic growth, in and of itself, causes r-star to increase. Another reason r-star is rising is that bonds are not as attractive as they once were. For 40 years, bonds were a great hedge against financial risk and stock market risk. During the pandemic, when the market tanked, Treasurys rose. Same thing during the financial crisis [Editor\u2019s note: bond yields move inversely to prices, rising as yields fall]<\/em>.<\/p>\n

But as we saw last year, bonds are terrible hedges when the Fed has to fight inflation. Investors\u2019 perception of the quality of bonds as a hedge on stocks is important because that can raise r-star. <\/p>\n

During the bad old days of the 1970s, we had 9% to 10% inflation for a decade. We\u2019re nowhere near that now, but bouts like we just had could happen again, and it\u2019s not something you want to be holding bonds for. Plus, global supply-chain on-shoring, environmental requirements and other factors are going to probably add an upward bias to prices, as well as the federal deficit. After all, how do countries get out of debt problems? They don\u2019t default, they inflate.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As inflation-adjusted U.S. bond yields climb to their highest levels in nearly 15 years, some investors are wondering whether owning stocks is still \u201cworth it\u201d over the long haul. The answer, according to University of Pennsylvania Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel, is, \u201cYes, absolutely.\u201d Long-term gains for stocks have historically outpaced those for bonds […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":52663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-52662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nHere\u2019s what Wharton\u2019s Jeremy Siegel expects to hear from Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As inflation-adjusted U.S. bond yields climb to their highest levels in nearly 15 years, some investors are wondering whether owning stocks is still\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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