After enjoying the beaches, outdoor activities, and warm weather for a few months at a friend\u2019s house in Florida during the pandemic, Josh Strange and his family eventually moved from Northern Virginia to the Sunshine state. <\/p>\n
When Hurricane Ian hit Florida last summer, Strange, 42, learned how to put up sandbags to protect his home. \u201cI mirrored what my neighbor did,\u201d he says. \u201cIt was a surreal experience.\u201d Still, he doesn\u2019t regret relocating to an area prone to hurricanes. \u201cRisks are present in any decision\u2026.This is just one of those situations where we felt the benefits outweigh the risks.\u201d <\/p>\n
\n
Warming temperatures and rising sea levels are projected to bring more-frequent and severe natural catastrophes in the coming decades\u2014whether it\u2019s wildfires, extreme heat, hurricanes, or flooding caused by heavy rainfall. That will make living situations increasingly difficult in many places.<\/p>\n
Yet millions of Americans continue to move to areas exposed to high climate risks, drawn by affordable housing, booming local economies, family ties, and access to nature. Home builders continue developing to meet demand, while disaster-hammered communities keep rebuilding. Many of these areas have seen home prices rise higher and faster than the national average.<\/p>\n
For instance, Fort Myers and Cape Coral in Florida suffered some of the biggest losses during last year\u2019s Hurricane Ian\u2014in part because of rapid development. Population in Lee County, where the two cities are located, has increased more than 600% since 1970, ahead of the nation\u2019s 63% average. In the 12 months to July 2022, more than 30,000 new residents moved in, a 4% jump. <\/p>\n
In the next 30 years, about 16 million U.S. properties will be subject to extreme heat of more than 104 degrees in the hottest month of the year, and 15 million are likely to experience winds of over 77 miles an hour from hurricanes, according to climate analytics company First Street Foundation.<\/p>\n
Home values could also be at risk. Properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by as much as $237 billion, according to research published in February by monthly journal Nature Climate Change. \u201cA lack of consistent information and awareness regarding these risks means that markets have yet to fully price them in,\u201d wrote Capital Economics researchers in a separate report in July, referencing the journal\u2019s research.<\/p>\n
More people are recognizing the risk of the changing climate around them. A recent survey from the Insurance Information Institute, an industry association, found that 32% of homeowners said they have been affected by weather events in the past five years, and nearly 60% expect to be affected in the next 10 years.\u00a0<\/p>\n
When choosing where to live, however, there are many factors to consider. \u201cJust 10 years ago, climate wasn\u2019t even on people\u2019s radar,\u201d says Jesse Keenan, associate professor of real estate and urban planning at Tulane University. \u201cIt is now, but it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean it\u2019s shaping major life decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to a 2021 survey by real estate start-up PropertyNest, nearly two-thirds of home buyers said they didn\u2019t consider the impact of climate change when deciding where or what to buy. Some said the issue simply hadn\u2019t occurred to them, while others didn\u2019t see it as related to homebuying. More than 12% didn\u2019t believe in climate change.<\/p>\n
Of course, many people have moved away from high-risk areas, either on their own or with the help of the federal government, which has paid thousands of homeowners to leave their flood-prone properties and relocate.<\/p>\n
But climate\u2019s impact on migration is still in the early days, says Adam Kamins, senior director at
\n Moody\u2019s
\n Analytics, who has researched climate change and the U.S. economy. \u201cPeople are seemingly undeterred,\u201d he says. \u201cThe impact of affordability, availability of jobs, and economic health of an area just trumps [climate risks] by orders of magnitude.\u201d<\/p>\n
Phoenix recently experienced one of its hottest summers ever as temperatures stayed above 110 degrees for over a month. The region\u2019s water supply is also being squeezed, with its groundwater running low and the Colorado River drying up. <\/p>\n
But heat and drought haven\u2019t deterred people from seeking the desert life. Since 1970, the population in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, has more than quadrupled to 4.5 million. It is now the fourth most populous county in the nation. From July 2021 to July 2022, nearly 57,000 people moved in.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur lifestyle out here really is designed to stay cool. Everything is air-conditioned 24\/7,\u201d says Butch Leiber, a real estate agent who has lived in Phoenix for 30 years. \u201cYou get used to it. You adapt your life to it.\u201d While summer heat is hard to get through, milder winters are a big draw, he says.<\/p>\n
Climate is one of Florida\u2019s greatest assets when it comes to attracting new residents, says Aaron Buchbinder, a real estate agent based in Boca Raton, on the southeast coast\u2014but it\u2019s a double-edged sword. It\u2019s like one of those end-of-the-world movies, he says. \u201cYou see the tsunami coming, and I go: \u2019this could always happen to us.\u2019 But we chose to live here because we want this lifestyle.\u201d<\/p>\n
The desire to be closer to nature was accelerated during the pandemic as people spent more time at home. \u201cPeople continue to move to places where the environment\u2014such as oceanfront\u2014is considered an amenity,\u201d says Timothy Judge, head of modeling and chief climate officer at
\n Fannie Mae.<\/span>
\n \u201cThe problem is, it also puts you in some of the higher-risk areas.\u201d<\/p>\nMany move to climate-vulnerable areas for economic reasons. Despite strong growth in value in recent years, homes in Arizona and parts of Florida are much cheaper than in California and the Northeast\u2014places from which many transplants are departing. <\/p>\n
Their new destinations also have some of the lowest tax rates in the country. \u201cNot having state income tax is a pretty significant consideration for people with high earnings,\u201d says Strange, who works as a financial advisor in Florida.<\/p>\n
After New Orleans lost more than half of its population following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, people have been moving back. But the recovery is uneven. St. Bernard Parish, where the median home value is 22% lower than in nearby Orleans Parish, nearly tripled its population from 2006 to 2022, a much stronger bounceback than the latter\u2019s 60% growth in the same period.<\/p>\n
The areas where people move back quickly are often places where people don\u2019t have other options.\u00a0\u201cA lot of people knowingly move to high-risk areas because it\u2019s the cheapest place to live,\u201d says Tulane\u2019s Keenan. \u201cThey\u2019re just doing the basics to survive.\u201d<\/p>\n
Most people still aren\u2019t feeling the costs associated with climate change. The\u00a0<\/strong>population in Collin County, a suburban area northeast of Dallas, ballooned 17 times since 1970. From July 2021 to July 2022, it added more than 44,000 new residents. <\/p>\nDespite hotter Texas summers and high demand for air conditioning, utility costs aren\u2019t prohibitive to people\u2019s homebuying decisions, says Shana Acquisto, president of Collin County\u2019s Realtor association. \u201cI see more people concerned with the costs of a pool.\u201d<\/p>\n
There are some efforts to mitigate climate\u2019s impact. Florida has enforced stronger building codes, including roof-to-wall connections, hurricane shutters, and impact-resistant windows. In hotter places like Arizona and Texas, people are building more insulated and energy efficient housing, while conserving and recycling water with new technologies.<\/p>\n
But those measures are expensive and often apply only to newer houses. Many people will be left behind. \u201cWhat we see is a very clear picture throughout the U.S. of the haves and have-nots,\u201d says Keenan. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of rural America that simply does not have the institutional capacity or money to do anything other than begging the Congress for postdisaster recovery dollars.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Arizona, the scramble for water sources is driving a wedge between communities. In 2018, Queen Creek, a quickly developing suburban town southeast of Phoenix, paid millions of dollars for the water rights from a farm on the Colorado River. Three rural counties, worried about drought in their own areas, have sued the government for approving the deal. <\/p>\n
While private insurers have been pulling out of some high-risk areas, government-backed plans have stepped in to provide coverage. But the situation isn\u2019t sustainable, says Moody\u2019s Kamins. \u201cEventually, they are not going to have the revenue to do that and insurance costs will become prohibitively higher, and at that point, we will start to see some impacts on migration,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
There are signs of a tipping point:\u00a0According to a 2022 Redfin survey of people who plan to buy or sell a home in the next year, two in five said risk of natural disasters, extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels played a role in their decision to move, and nearly two-thirds said they are hesitant to move to high-risk areas. The rates are particularly high among Gen Zers, who grew up learning about climate change and will spend a longer portion of their lives dealing with it.<\/p>\n
New Orleans is already feeling the pain. Despite a decade of population growth, thousands of residents left the city last year after Hurricane Ida hit in 2021, and insurance costs soared. The recent restructuring of the federal flood insurance program will further boost rates in flood-prone areas\u2014leading more residents in those zones to leave, says Gary Wagner, an economics scholar at University of Louisiana at Lafayette. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Phoenix continues to attract tens of thousands of new residents each year. \u201cHopefully, people will keep moving here, we keep building, and prices continue to go up,\u201d says Leiber, the real estate agent. \u201cIf this is the first of a string of superhot summers, will we start to see an exodus? I don\u2019t know. I guess people don\u2019t want to deal with the future.\u201d<\/p>\n
Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com and Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After enjoying the beaches, outdoor activities, and warm weather for a few months at a friend\u2019s house in Florida during the pandemic, Josh Strange and his family eventually moved from Northern Virginia to the Sunshine state. When Hurricane Ian hit Florida last summer, Strange, 42, learned how to put up sandbags to protect his home. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":52335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-52334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\n
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