{"id":51289,"date":"2023-08-21T18:26:41","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T22:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/five-reasons-not-to-bet-on-wework-stock\/"},"modified":"2023-08-21T18:26:44","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T22:26:44","slug":"five-reasons-not-to-bet-on-wework-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=51289","title":{"rendered":"Five Reasons Not To Bet On WeWork Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>More than a dozen years ago, I gave thought to betting $1,000 on Bitcoin<fbs-ticker data-name=\"BTC\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/digital-assets\/assets\/bitcoin-btc\/\" data-type=\"crypto\"><br \/>\n  BTC<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> after its price dropped from $17.50 to pennies apiece in the wake of the June 2011 hacking of Mt. Gox, a Japanese BTC exchange.<\/p>\n<p>Since BTC struck me in that 2011 piece on Forbes.com as an easy-to-steal thought experiment whose anonymity made it useful for drug dealers and terrorists, I opted not to make the bet.<\/p>\n<p>If I had bet $1,000 back then \u2014 at, say, 5 cents\/BTC, my 20,000 BTC would have been worth a tidy $524.8 million as of Aug. 18, 2023. Whoops.<\/p>\n<p>That kind of missed investing opportunity comes to mind in considering WeWork, the workspace-sharing company, whose stock fell 11% to 14 cents a share on August 18. That drop came after announcing a 1-for-40 reverse stock split in a bid to remain listed on the New York Stock Exchange, noted AP.<\/p>\n<p>Does WeWork\u2019s low stock price \u2014 down 99% from its October 2021 peak \u2014 make it worth trying the kind of $1,000 bet I did not make 12 years ago on BTC? I see five reasons to pass:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Risk of losing its NYSE listing<\/li>\n<li>\u201cSubstantial doubt\u201d of continuing as a \u201cgoing concern\u201d<\/li>\n<li>New board members with bankruptcy expertise<\/li>\n<li>Weak financial condition<\/li>\n<li>Deeper cut to its credit rating<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>I asked WeWork for comment and will update this post if I receive a reply.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">WeWork\u2019s 40-for-1 Stock Split<\/h2>\n<p>WeWork announced August 18 it is moving forward with a 1-for-40 reverse stock split in a bid to maintain its NYSE listing, AP noted.<\/p>\n<p>The stock split will be effective September 1 \u2014 after which every 40 shares an investor holds will become a single share. WeWork\u2019s Class A stock will start trading on a post-split basis at the market open on September 5, AP reported.<\/p>\n<p>WeWork does not expect the reverse stock split to impact its current or future business operations.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Risk Of Losing NYSE Listing<\/h2>\n<p>On April 12, the NYSE issued WeWork a continued listing standard notice after shares \u2014 which had been trading below $1 a share since late March \u2014 closed below an average of $1 over a 30-day trading span.<\/p>\n<p>WeWork wants to remain listed on the NYSE \u2014 hence the reverse stock split. According to a WeWork SEC filing, \u201cThe Reverse Stock Split is being effected to regain compliance with the $1.00 per share minimum closing price required to maintain continued listing on the New York Stock Exchange.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While having no impact on WeWork\u2019s business operations, were its shares trading at 14 cents before the reverse stock split, the new shares \u2014 each equivalent to 40 of the pre-reverse-st0ck-split shares \u2014 would trade at $5.60 each.<\/p>\n<p>Were WeWork\u2019s new shares to trade above $1 a share for long enough, perhaps the NYSE would allow the company to maintain its listing there.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">There Are Doubts WeWork Can Continue As A Company<\/h2>\n<p>While the reverse stock split could give it some breathing room, WeWork\u2019s August 8 announcement suggests its stability is disappearing fast. According to CNBC, that\u2019s when the company said its \u201cmounting losses and dwindling cash \u2018raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.\u2019 \u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to a company statement, WeWork\u2019s \u201cability to continue as a going concern is contingent upon successful execution of management\u2019s plan to improve liquidity and profitability over the next 12 months, which includes, without limitation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Reducing rent and tenancy costs via restructuring actions and negotiation of more favorable lease terms;<\/li>\n<li>Increasing revenue by reducing member churn and increasing new sales;<\/li>\n<li>Controlling expenses and limiting capital expenditures; and<\/li>\n<li>Seeking additional capital via issuance of debt or equity securities or asset sales.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>WeWork is impressed with its revenue growth and profitability improvements. As Interim Chief Executive Officer David Tolley said in a statement, \u201cIn a difficult operating environment, we have delivered solid year-over-year revenue growth and dramatic profitability improvements.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>WeWork accomplished this in the face of significant co-working industry headwinds. \u201cExcess supply in commercial real estate, increasing competition in flexible space and macroeconomic volatility drove higher member churn and softer demand than we anticipated, resulting in a slight decline in memberships,\u201d Tolley stated.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">New Board Members With Bankruptcy Expertise<\/h2>\n<p>Earlier in August WeWork lost some of the talent Tolley extolled. According to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/wework-taps-directors-with-bankruptcy-chops-after-board-resignations-254aaca4\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>, three directors who disagreed with its governance and strategy quit WeWork \u2014 only to be replaced by three new people with extensive bankruptcy expertise.<\/p>\n<p>This shift does not inspire confidence. After all, Daniel Hurwitz, Vivek Ranadiv\u00e9 and V\u00e9ronique Laury \u2014 the directors who resigned earlier in August \u2014 made the move due to \u201ca material disagreement regarding board governance and the company\u2019s strategic and tactical direction,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>While the source of their disagreement is not clear, it could be WeWork\u2019s business model: The company makes what I think is a fundamental error \u2014 the workspace sharer leases office space long and sublets it short.<\/p>\n<p>More specifically, WeWork signs long-term office space leases and \u201ceffectively sublets desks to companies short-term\u201d forcing WeWork to pay rent whether its desks \u2014 which were 67% occupied in the second quarter \u2014 are full or not, the Journal noted.<\/p>\n<p>As I wrote in June 2023, WeWork\u2019s business model is particularly precarious with so much excess corporate real estate on the market as workers resist commuting to offices five days a week.<\/p>\n<p>Naturally, the addition of three directors with bankruptcy expertise does not make much sense unless there is a high likelihood WeWork is heading for a financial restructuring, which would likely wipe out shareholders.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Weak Financial Position<\/h2>\n<p>While WeWork\u2019s revenue increased and its losses declined \u2014 both fell short of expectations in the second quarter of 2023. What\u2019s more, WeWork\u2019s balance sheet does not look strong and it is burning through cash. Finally, its obligations for the second half of this year exceed the cash on its balance sheet at the end of June.<\/p>\n<p>Here are WeWork\u2019s key second quarter 2023 numbers from MarketWatch:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Revenue: $844 million<\/strong> \u2014 was up 3.6% from the year before and $6.2 million short of the FactSet analyst consensus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net loss: $397 million<\/strong> \u2014 a $180 million improvement over the company\u2019s Q2 2022 net loss.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Loss per share: 21 cents<\/strong> \u2014 55 cents less bad than the year before, but nine cents a share short of the analyst consensus.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>WeWork\u2019s financial condition does not look strong. Its balance sheet held a mere $205 million in cash and equivalents and $2.91 billion in long-term debt at the end of June 2023, CNBC reported.<\/p>\n<p>Could WeWork be heading for bankruptcy? At the end of June, WeWork\u2019s liabilities of roughly $18.6 billion exceeded its assets of $15.1 billion, according to an SEC filing, leaving it with negative equity of about $3.5 billion. In general, this is a sign of \u201casset deficiency and an indicator a company may default on its obligations and be headed for bankruptcy,\u201d according to Investopedia.<\/p>\n<p>WeWork burned through $646 million in free cash flow in the first half of 2023, according to the company\u2019s SEC filing. Were WeWork to continue to burn cash at that rate and not raise more, it would run out of money within a year.<\/p>\n<p>WeWork\u2019s contractual obligations for the second half of 2023 are more than six times the company\u2019s June cash balance. According to its SEC filing, between June 2023 and \u201c2028 and beyond,\u201d WeWork\u2019s total contractual obligations are nearly $29 billion \u2014 with about $1.3 billion due in the second half of 2023 and another $2.4 billion to be paid out in 2024.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Deeper Cut To Credit Rating<\/h2>\n<p>If WeWork needs to borrow more, it will probably come at a higher price. How so? On August 16, Fitch cut WeWork\u2019s credit rating \u201cfurther into junk territory,\u201d according to Financial Review. Lenders will expect to be compensated for the higher risk.<\/p>\n<p>In lowering WeWork\u2019s long-term issuer default ratings from \u201cCC\u2019 to \u2018CCC-,\u201d Fitch wrote, the decision follows \u201cworse than expected second-quarter financial results, a public warning that the company\u2019s ability to continue as a going concern over the next 12 months will be contingent on improving its liquidity, resignations of key executives and board members, and the replacement of board members with restructuring experts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In May, Fitch expressed optimism that WeWork would \u201ccontinue to exist.\u201d By August, the ratings agency noted \u201cthe necessary improvements\u201d had not materialized and \u201cWeWork continues to burn through cash,\u201d Financial Review reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Could WeWork Stock Rise?<\/h2>\n<p>To be sure, there are reasons in favor of buying WeWork shares now. There is a modest short interest \u2014 2.57% of its float is sold short, according to Morningstar. This could boost WeWork stock were the company to report expectations-beating results, which would force short sellers to buy the rising stock to cover their bearish positions.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, on August 8 WeWork expressed confidence in its future. As Tolley said, \u201cWe are confident in our ability to meet the evolving workplace needs of businesses of all sizes&#8230;The talent and energy of the WeWork team is extraordinary and we are resolutely focused on delivering for our members for the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>WeWork\u2019s \u201ctransformation continues at pace, with a laser focus on member retention and growth, doubling down on our real estate portfolio optimization efforts, and maintaining a disciplined approach to reducing operating costs,\u201d Tolley added.<\/p>\n<p>If you think Tolley\u2019s turnaround will enable WeWork to remain a going concern, buy the stock. But for these five reasons outline above, I am not persuaded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/08\/20\/five-reasons-not-to-bet-on-wework-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More than a dozen years ago, I gave thought to betting $1,000 on Bitcoin BTC after its price dropped from $17.50 to pennies apiece in the wake of the June 2011 hacking of Mt. Gox, a Japanese BTC exchange. Since BTC struck me in that 2011 piece on Forbes.com as an easy-to-steal thought experiment whose [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-51289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Five Reasons Not To Bet On WeWork Stock | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"More than a dozen years ago, I gave thought to betting $1,000 on Bitcoin BTC after its price dropped from $17.50 to pennies apiece in the wake of the June\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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