{"id":49733,"date":"2023-08-17T16:21:25","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T20:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/why-vinfast-stock-may-be-98-too-high\/"},"modified":"2023-08-17T16:21:27","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T20:21:27","slug":"why-vinfast-stock-may-be-98-too-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=49733","title":{"rendered":"Why VinFast Stock May Be 98% Too High"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Investors valued VinFast, a Vietnam-based electric vehicle maker with relatively little revenue, at $69 billion following its Tuesday market debut \u2014 higher than GM\u2019s and Ford\u2019s combined market capitalization.<\/p>\n<p>Here are four reasons VinFast shares could be 98% too high:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Poor reviews on a me-too product<\/li>\n<li>Weak capabilities for success in the U.S. EV market<\/li>\n<li>Excessive valuation<\/li>\n<li>Insiders control most of the stock<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A VinFast spokesperson said, \u201cWe are excited to be listed on the Nasdaq and believe we are well positioned to deliver on our ambition to create a greener future by developing a large offering of premium EVs at an inclusive price.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">VinFast\u2019s Market Debut<\/h2>\n<p>On August 15, VinFast \u2014 an EV manufacturer controlled by Vingroup, a Vietnamese conglomerate \u2014 listed on Nasdaq.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>VinFast currently manufactures EV SUVs in Vietnam and ships them to the U.S. The automaker opened its first U.S. showrooms in 2022 in California and plans to spend $2 billion to build an EV factory in North Carolina where it expects to begin production in 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast was founded in 2017 and in March 2023 began delivering the VF8, an all-electric SUV priced at $46,000 \u2014 slightly below Ford\u2019s Mustang Mach-E, the Journal noted. Since starting production in 2021 and the end of June 2023, VinFast has delivered 18,700 vehicles \u2014 740 to U.S. customers and most of the balance to Vietnamese buyers, the Journal noted.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast stock started off at a high valuation. After merging with Black Spade, a special-purpose acquisition company, VinFast shares opened at a roughly $86 billion valuation \u2014 a market capitalization exceeding GM\u2019s and Ford\u2019s combined.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast shares closed at $37 on their first day of trading \u2014 an improvement over Black Spade\u2019s last closing price of $10.45. VinFast dropped almost 19% to $30.11 a share and fell 10% to about $27 a share in August 17 pre-market, according to the Journal.<\/p>\n<p>A drop in the number of shares trading before the SPAC merger contributed to the stock\u2019s volatility. A VinFast spokesperson told the Journal around 84% of Black Spade investors withdrew their money ahead of VinFast\u2019s debut \u2014 resulting in fewer shares available for trading.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast\u2019s financial performance is not great \u2014 losses are growing and revenue is down. It lost $2.1 billion in 2022 and is on track to burn even more in the current financial year, according to the Guardian. At the end of the first quarter, VinFast had lost $598 million, up from a $411 million loss the year before. Revenue from vehicle sales fell \u201cby around half to $65 million in the first quarter,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast is thrilled with its U.S. listing. According to a statement, Madame Thuy Le, VinFast Global CEO, said: \u201cBecoming a U.S-listed company marks a significant milestone in VinFast&#8217;s global expansion. More than just transaction on the stock market, going public reflects a powerful vote of confidence in our vision and potential, as well as fulfills our pledge to make smart, safe and environmentally friendly electric vehicles accessible to everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Poor Reviews On Me-Too Product<\/h2>\n<p>Vinfast\u2019s VF8 has received \u201cterrible reviews.\u201d According to The Drive, \u201ccomplaints about the 2023 Vinfast VF8 run the gamut of hopeless suspension to spotty build quality, which has already resulted in a recall for screen failures. Vinfast&#8217;s planned EV battery subscription model has also been scuttled because nobody wants to pay for that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>VinFast\u2019s U.S. sales have been minuscule. As of July, Automotive News reported VinFast had sold 128 cars in the U.S. after five months on sale. According to VinFast, 45 of those were on the first day.<\/p>\n<p>Vinfast does not respond politely to bad press. The Drive notes the company \u201callegedly tried to sic the police on one negative reviewer.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Weak Capabilities For Competing In U.S. EV Market<\/h2>\n<p>VinFast faces competition from Tesla<fbs-ticker data-name=\"TSLA\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/tesla\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  TSLA<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, auto industry incumbents such as Ford, GM, BMW, and VW, and startups such as Nikola, Lucid, and NIO.<\/p>\n<p>According to Apple\u2019s Electric Vehicle, a business school case I co-authored with Sam Hariharan, the capabilities needed to win the EV industry pose significant barriers to entry. Here\u2019s why I think VinFast needs to improve its performance on the required capabilities:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Battery Design, Manufacturing, and Distribution: <\/strong><em>Fair<\/em>.<strong> <\/strong>Consumers did not want to pay for VinFast\u2019s initial strategy \u2014 to offer a battery subscription model. So the company is selling EVs with batteries included. Michael Dunne, CEO of EV consulting firm, ZoZoGo, said, \u201cThey set out to have battery leasing as a market differentiator, but the feedback from customers was that it was too confusing,\u201d the Journal noted.<\/li>\n<li><strong>EV Design, Manufacturing and Distribution:<\/strong> <em>Needs improvement. <\/em>Customers complained about about suspension, manufacturing quality, and screens, noted The Drive. Moreover, VinFast does not plan to manufacture vehicles in the U.S. for years \u2014 putting the company at a disadvantage to rivals with local manufacturing.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Supercharger Network Design, Construction and Operation: <\/strong><em>Unclear<\/em>. In February 2023, TechCrunch reported VinFast \u201cmay have been pursuing an EV charging network in the States.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Software Development and Distribution: <\/strong><em>Needs development<\/em>.<strong> <\/strong>VinFast had to do a recall to \u201cfix display screens that could go blank while driving, preventing owners from seeing warning lights or control icons,\u201d noted the Journal. The problem \u2014 which led to recalls in May 2023 \u2014 were due to software, according to AutoWeek.<\/li>\n<li><strong>EV Branding: <\/strong><em>Needs development<\/em><strong>. <\/strong>VinFast CEO Thuy told Reuters, VinFast had originally planned to mimic Tesla with its own showrooms; however, it concluded partnering is faster \u2014 having opened 122 showrooms as of July 2023 \u2014 concentrated on the U.S. West Coast. As the Journal reported, reviews of VinFast\u2019s EV \u201chaven\u2019t been great\u201d and the starting price is too high compared to rivals \u2014 resulting in slow U.S. sales.<\/li>\n<li><strong>EV Customer Service: <\/strong><em>Needs development<\/em><strong>. <\/strong>VinFast is offering to pay customers in the U.S., Canada, and Vietnam if their vehicle breaks down or suffers a serious quality issue. The payment would amount to $300 or more, depending on the terms of the service contract, according to Carscoops. This may be of little comfort to owners who would simply like their EV to get them where they want to go.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given the number of well-funded competitors vying over the EV market, VinFast has a significant opportunity to improve its strategy and capabilities.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Excessive Valuation<\/h2>\n<p>VinFast stock appears way overvalued. Its price\/sales ratio is excessive and its 2023 revenue forecast appears wildly optimistic. A more reasonable valuation would be $1.2 billion.<\/p>\n<p>How so? As the Journal reported, prior to its SPAC merger, VinFast and Black Spade agreed on a valuation of $23 billion by multiplying a 2023 revenue target of $1.875 billion \u2014 more than three times its 2022 revenue \u2014 by a discount to Lucid\u2019s trading multiple.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast ended August 16 with a price-to-sales ratio of 37 \u2014 that is over four times higher than Tesla\u2019s 8.4. The Journal wrote VinFast is more like Chinese companies such as NIO and Li Auto \u2014 which trade at around two times 2023 revenue forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>How do I arrive at $1.2 billion? Since VinFast revenue fell about 50% in the first quarter of 2023, I think it is generous to assume the company will meet its 2022 revenues in 2023 \u2014 which were $634 million.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast is confident about the $1.875 billion revenue forecast. \u201cThe ballpark numbers that our chairman indicated for this year are still on track,\u201d CFO Dave Mansfield told Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>If we apply a price-to-sales ratio of two, VinFast\u2019s market capitalization would be $1.26 billion \u2014 about 98% below its August 16 market capitalization of $69 billion.<\/p>\n<p>VinFast is comfortable with its valuation. As CEO, L\u00ea Th\u1ecb Thu Th\u1ee7y told CNBC August 16, \u201cYou saw how the market reacted when we opened today, right? I think it\u2019s just a way for us to get listed in the U.S. We didn\u2019t think of the reputation of SPACs.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Insiders Control Stock<\/h2>\n<p>Investors in the publicly-traded VinFast shares are at a significant information disadvantage. That\u2019s because one person controls most of VinFast shares.<\/p>\n<p>Pham Nhat Vuong, chairman of VinFast\u2019s parent company in Vietnam, controlled at a minimum 99.1% of the carmker\u2019s shares before it merged with Black Spade. The company declined to \u201csay what exact percentage of shares outstanding are currently publicly traded,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What\u2019s Next For VinFast Stock<\/h2>\n<p>VinFast stock seems likely to go down. David Whiston, an auto- industry analyst at Morningstar, said, \u201cI thought the EV SPAC bubble was over, but I guess not. It makes no sense to me that it\u2019d be worth something approaching BMW and more than GM and Ford.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The best hope for VinFast investors is to exceed investor expectations for growth and profitability.<\/p>\n<p>Given its ambitious objectives, weak financial performance, and significant competitive disadvantages, I see no rush to buy VinFast shares.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/08\/17\/why-vinfast-stock-may-be-98-too-high\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors valued VinFast, a Vietnam-based electric vehicle maker with relatively little revenue, at $69 billion following its Tuesday market debut \u2014 higher than GM\u2019s and Ford\u2019s combined market capitalization. Here are four reasons VinFast shares could be 98% too high: Poor reviews on a me-too product Weak capabilities for success in the U.S. EV market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35229,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-49733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why VinFast Stock May Be 98% Too High | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investors valued VinFast, a Vietnam-based electric vehicle maker with relatively little revenue, at $69 billion following its Tuesday market debut \u2014\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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