{"id":48183,"date":"2023-08-14T10:53:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/up-970-fold-since-its-ipo-amgen-stock-could-be-overvalued\/"},"modified":"2023-08-14T10:53:05","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:53:05","slug":"up-970-fold-since-its-ipo-amgen-stock-could-be-overvalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=48183","title":{"rendered":"Up 970-Fold Since Its IPO, Amgen Stock Could Be Overvalued"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Over 41 years ago, Amgen<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AMGN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/amgen\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  AMGN<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, the Thousand Oaks, Calif.-based biopharma company formerly known as Applied Molecular Genetics, went public.<\/p>\n<p>From a split-adjusted 27 cents a share in June 1983, shares of Amgen have risen at an 18.2% average annual rate to $262 on August 11, 2023 \u2014 beating the S&amp;P 500\u2019s 8.3% average increase during that period.<\/p>\n<p>Can shares of Amgen \u2014 which sports a 3.25% dividend yield \u2014 keep rising? After going nowhere so far in 2023, there is good news in Amgen\u2019s most recent financial report and CEO Robert Bradway\u2019s confidence in closing Amgen\u2019s $28 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics by December.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, my August 10 interview with Salveen Richter, a Goldman Sachs Managing Director, suggest Generative AI could boost the productivity of Amgen\u2019s drug discovery operation \u2014 possibly raising the odds of faster organic growth.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, a looming patent cliff for Amgen\u2019s significant drugs means it may need more new patented drugs soon. Without faster growth, the stock could disappoint.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Amgen\u2019s Expectations-Beating Q2 2023 Results<\/h2>\n<p>While Amgen reported modest growth in the second quarter, the biopharma giant exceeded revenue and profit expectations and lifted its full-year guidance.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the key numbers from to MarketWatch:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q2 Revenue: $6.99 billion<\/strong> was up 6.9% \u2014 $30 million ahead of analysts\u2019 forecast. Amgen\u2019s \u201c11% growth in volume offset a 2% decline in net selling prices and 1% lower inventory levels,\u201d noted MarketWatch.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q2 Adjusted Earnings Per Share: $5.00<\/strong> \u2014 51 cents a share above the FactSet consensus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2023 Revenue Guidance Range: $26.6 billion to $27.4 billion<\/strong> \u2014 the midpoint of which is up about 1% from its previous guidance range.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2023 Adjusted EPS Guidance Range: $17.80 to $18.80<\/strong> \u2014 the midpoint of which is about 1% higher than its previous guidance range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Amgen\u2019s established products declined while some of its best-selling drugs enjoyed growth. According to MarketWatch, sales of established products \u2014 Epogen, Aranesp, Parsabiv and Neulasta \u2014 droped 17% in the wake of lower net selling prices and declining volume. Best sellers Amjevita\/Amgevita and Prolia enjoyed sales increases \u2014 2% to $1 billion and 11% to $1.03 billion, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Amgen\u2019s fastest growth came from smaller drugs \u2014 Blincyto, Evenity and Repatha, according to Investor\u2019s Business Daily. Here are the highlights:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Blincyto<\/strong>, a cancer drug, enjoyed 48% sales growth to $206 million<\/li>\n<li><strong>Evenity<\/strong>, an osteoporosis treatment, generated 47% sales growth to $281 million<\/li>\n<li><strong>Repatha<\/strong>, a migraine treatment, saw a 36% jump to $424 million in sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Moreover, Amgen announced progress in its cancer drugs. Specifically, IBD<fbs-ticker data-name=\"IBD\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/investment-funds\/ibd\/\" data-type=\"etf\"><br \/>\n  IBD<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> reported Amgen \u201cunveiled promising results for two treatments in lung cancer and advanced colon cancer.\u201d Tarlatamab, a small cell lung cancer treatment, achieved an overall response rate substantially higher than the 23% rate seen during its Phase 1 tests.<\/p>\n<p>Amgen also said a combination of its drugs Lumakras and Vectibix extended the lives of patients with advanced colon cancer \u201cwithout the disease progressing,\u201d noted IBD.<\/p>\n<p>Amgen was happy with its results. Bradway said in a statement, \u201cWe had a very strong quarter, serving more patients across all geographies and therapeutic categories and delivering record revenues and [adjusted] earnings per share.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Will Amgen Complete Its Horizon Therapeutics Takeover?<\/h2>\n<p>In December 2022, Amgen made a roughly $28 billion bid to acquire Horizon Therapeutics which the FTC is trying to block. On August 3, Bradway expressed confidence the merger would be completed by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n<p>In its lawsuit, the FTC argued Amgen could use its drug portfolio to \u201centrench the monopoly positions\u201d of Horizon\u2019s thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza and gout treatment Krystexxa. The agency argued Amgen has engaged in such drug \u201cbundling\u201d in previous negotiations with payers.<\/p>\n<p>Amgen said it would not follow that strategy with Horizon drugs and expects the deal to be completed in December. \u201cSimply put, there are no competitive overlaps and no incentives to bundle our drugs with theirs. We look forward to making our case in court in September and I am confident, rather, that we will prevail,\u201d Bradway told investors in an August 3 conference call.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How AI Could Help Amgen Grow Faster<\/h2>\n<p>Biopharma companies are using Generative AI to speed up drug development and to design new drugs that better target specific diseases. As Richter said, \u201cCompared to traditional AI, Generative AI has exciting potential of creating new content \u2014 synthetic data for designing new drugs, developing diagnostic tools, and crafting personalized care plans.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ChatGPT can make administrative tasks more efficient. As she explained, these include developing detailed treatment plans in real time, responding more quickly to questions from the Food and Drug Administration, and putting proposals together.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Amgen stands out among biopharma companies in its use of AI. \u201cThere has always been some level of AI in healthcare since the early days. Machine learning has been used for computational biology to develop drugs more effectively, and to validate targets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Amgen has become better at developing drugs since it adopted Google\u2019s<fbs-ticker data-name=\"GOOG\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/google\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  GOOG<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> DeepMind which shortens drug development timelines and lowers costs. \u201cAmgen stands out among large biopharma companies in using AI for computational biology,\u201d Richter told me.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Amgen\u2019s Patent Cliffs<\/h2>\n<p>Amgen faces significant challenges, According to the Wall Street Journal, the Internal Revenue Service is going after Amgen for \u201cbillions of dollars\u201d in back taxes and Amgen lost a patent-infringement ruling in the Supreme Court for Repatha, a new Amgen cholesterol drug.<\/p>\n<p>Yet its biggest growth threat by the end of the decade could be its patent cliffs \u2014 important Amgen drugs poised to lose their patent protection. For example, Enbrel \u2014 a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases comes off patent in 2029. AbbVie<fbs-ticker data-name=\"ABBV\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/abbvie\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  ABBV<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> \u2014 facing biosimilar competition \u2014 is slashing the price of its rival drug Humira to pharmacy benefit managers.<\/p>\n<p>Brian Skorney, a Baird analyst pointed out Enbrel first quarter 2023 revenues of $579 million fell 29% short of analyst estimates from Visible Alpha.<\/p>\n<p>While two Amgen bone health drugs \u2014 Prolia and Xgeva \u2014 have helped offset the potential for lower revenue, the Journal noted another Amgen drug \u2014 Otezla \u2014 also missed first quarter \u201cestimates due to competition from a Bristol-Myers Squibb,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile analysts are concerned Horizon\u2019s Tepezza works so well that should Amgen complete its bid, the product\u2019s revenues will fall short of Amgen\u2019s expectations.<\/p>\n<p>How so? In 2022, Tepezza generated $2 billion in revenue and Horizon forecast $4 billion in peak sales. However, in the first quarter, Horizon reported Tepezza sales fell 19% \u2014 prompting SVB<fbs-ticker data-name=\"VB\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/investment-funds\/vb\/\" data-type=\"etf\"><br \/>\n  VB<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> Securities analyst David Risinger to lower his peak annual sales estimate 9% to $3.1 billion because Tepezza works so well that \u201cfewer U.S. patients are being treated than he had anticipated,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>The FTC is concerned Amgen could try to boost Tepezza\u2019s sales after acquiring Horizon by bundling it \u2014 a strategy Bradway said Amgen would not follow.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Amgen Stock Is Heading<\/h2>\n<p>Amgen is over-valued according to 13 Wall Street analysts. As TipRanks noted, their average 12-month price target is $247.67 \u2014 about 6% below its August 14 price.<\/p>\n<p>Morningstar is slightly more optimstic \u2014 setting a price target of $268. Karen Andersen wrote she is maintaining the target \u201cfollowing solid 6% product sales growth in the second quarter, driven by 11% volume growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She wrote Amgen\u2019s biggest growth drivers in the quarter \u2014 asthma drug Tezpire, osteoporosis drugs Evenity and Prolia, and Repatha \u2014 countered \u201crelatively flat sales of immunology drugs Enbrel and Otezla\u201d and dropping sales of \u201csupportive care drugs like Epogen and Neulasta.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She expects the Horizon deal to go through and approval of Tarlatamab, the small cell lung cancer drug, in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>To revive the growth in its stock price \u2014 Amgen needs faster growth from new, patented drugs. It is unclear when that will happen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/08\/14\/up-970-fold-since-its-ipo-amgen-stock-could-be-overvalued\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over 41 years ago, Amgen AMGN , the Thousand Oaks, Calif.-based biopharma company formerly known as Applied Molecular Genetics, went public. From a split-adjusted 27 cents a share in June 1983, shares of Amgen have risen at an 18.2% average annual rate to $262 on August 11, 2023 \u2014 beating the S&amp;P 500\u2019s 8.3% average [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-48183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Up 970-Fold Since Its IPO, Amgen Stock Could Be Overvalued | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Over 41 years ago, Amgen AMGN , the Thousand Oaks, Calif.-based biopharma company formerly known as Applied Molecular Genetics, went public. 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