{"id":47868,"date":"2023-08-13T06:25:23","date_gmt":"2023-08-13T10:25:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/three-surprises-for-argentinas-presidential-election\/"},"modified":"2023-08-13T06:25:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-13T10:25:25","slug":"three-surprises-for-argentinas-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868","title":{"rendered":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has forced the whole political ecosystem to hit the brakes and reassess what\u2019s at stake. As the political discussion centered on who would take the primary in Juntos por el Cambio, whether Uni\u00f3n por la Patria would be competitive, and how many votes the far-right ultra-libertarians would get, a cold shower has forced everyone to wake up and acknowledge the deep socio-economic problems the country is immersed in, starting with the troubling levels of poverty and anomie that defines the <em>Conurbano <\/em>or urban-ring of municipalities skirting the more affluent neighbourhoods that make up the Buenos Aires Metropolitan region (AMBA). Ultimately, the rise of structural poverty and associated violence and drug-trafficking is everyone\u2019s problem given the unitary nature of the country and the size of the <em>Conurbano<\/em>, which together with AMBA represents nearly 40 percent of the Argentine population. Morena Dom\u00ednguez\u2019s death occurred after she was assaulted while defending her cell phone from \u201c<em>motochorros<\/em>\u201d or \u201cmotorbike crooks\u201d who flood Greater Buenos Aires who on their rundown scooters pillaging mainly their neighbors, in this case in the municipality of Lan\u00fas. They are part of a degraded urban landscape where the poor feed off the poor, public services are few and far between and criminality has become the norm. It happened in a district where Patricia Bullrich\u2019s candidate for Buenos Aires Province governor N\u00e9stor Grindetti is on leave as mayor and in the region where Peronist Governor Axel Kicillof is seeking re-election, a neighborhood named Villa Diamante that sits on the border with Buenos Aires City. That what happens in the <em>Conurbano <\/em>impacts the whole country explains why every major candidate for the Presidency decided to cancel or tone down their end-of-campaign rally.<\/p>\n<p>Dubbed, \u201ca black swan in this campaign season that has paralyzed candidates on both sides\u201d by Ariel Maciel in <em>Perfil<\/em>, the harrowing nature of the crime, the fact that it was caught on security cameras and broadcasted nationally almost in real time, and its proximity to the PASO primaries could have a lasting impact on the political field by modifying the expected outcome of the election. For this to happen, Morena\u2019s death would have to drag the focus of the campaign from political infighting and the economic debate to one of insecurity and poverty. Would this benefit Bullrich, seen as a hardliner in her primary battle with coalition rival Horacio Rodr\u00edguz Larreta, and libertarian lawmakerJavier Milei? Could it lead to a further disillusionment with the political class that further tanks the participation rate?<\/p>\n<p>The iterations of these counterfactual scenarios could be endless. Yet, beyond Morena\u2019s murder and its potential impact on the primaries, the issue of potential black swan events can be put on the table and analyzed. At a recent private conversation with one of Argentina\u2019s most revered political strategists with top businessmen, the question of potential surprises was raised. The expert mentioned three: that Milei could have a much stronger election than expected, that Grabois also looked solid, and that all three main political spaces remained competitive going into the general elections.<\/p>\n<p>A good electoral showing for the ruling coalition, Uni\u00f3n por la Patria, now led by Sergio Massa, a relatively unpopular politician not directly associated with Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, seems intuitively unlikely. Yet that\u2019s what opinion polls suggested up until last week when the electoral ban on publishing surveys came into effect. Can Uni\u00f3n por la Patria really head into the general election looking competitive with Massa, the economy minister who\u2019s seen inflation spiral into triple digits as the pesodollar exchange rate appears out of control, and Juan Grabois, a left-wing social leader whose plan for Argentina is based on a Soviet-style agrarian redistribution of lands? While logic suggests it is difficult to imagine a solid showing, it feels like even the best result will be absolutely underwhelming under historical standards, forcing the pan-Peronist front to double down on its efforts if it aspires to make it into the ballotage.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Another seemingly unexpected scenario would be a Rodr\u00edguez Larreta victory in the opposition primaries. This appears counterintuitive in that the mayor of Argentina\u2019s richest city, a bastion of the PRO party and the Juntos por el Cambio coalition \u2013 where Rodr\u00edguez Larreta remained incredibly popular over his past eight years in office and previously as Mauricio Macri\u2019s Cabinet chief \u2013 appeared like the obvious victor only a year ago. That Patricia Bullrich has become a serious contender, and toward the end of the race the front-runner, was unfathomable not too long ago, when it seemed like society was looking for a centrist moderate to end decades of polarization (\u201c<em>la grieta<\/em>\u201d). Yet Bullrich hardened her stance in the heat of a mentor vs. prot\u00e9g\u00e9 battle for supremacy, aligning herself with Macri and moving closer to Milei. Toward the end of last week the figures suggested Rodr\u00edguez Larreta was inching closer, but on average he appeared well outside of the confidence intervals, yet for some reason there\u2019s still a feeling that he\u2019ll pull a rabbit out of the hat.<\/p>\n<p>The third question mark has to do with Milei, the rockstar economist who went from talking-head to potential presidential contender. He grew as time went by, consolidating his candidacy by attracting a large group of potentially angry voters that are tired of the status quo. The outspoken lawmaker\u2019s eccentricity and mannerisms turned him from laughing stock to mad genius in the eyes of his electorate, appearing passionate and decisive, even if most of his supporters don\u2019t understand Austrian economic theory. At one point Milei was on track to become the single-most voted candidate in the PASO primaries. When he was the center of attention, Milei also attracted political attacks from his rivals, with his mistakes blown up for everyone to see. He\u2019s been accused of selling candidacies on his legislative lists and franchising his brand for regional elections. The deputy\u2019s plan to dollarize the economy was repudiated by both major coalitions. And his stature in polls began to slide. According to <em>Perfil\u2019s <\/em>Gustavo Gonz\u00e1lez, Milei\u2019s potential voting intention in surveys went up and then down before the cut-off. Not only is there a question about whether his followers will turn up to vote, and then effectively vote for him, but also where he counts with the territorial capacity to ensure his ballots are actually there all over the country, and that his votes are actually counted. The intricacies of the Argentine system.<\/p>\n<p>Back to the violent murder of Morena Rodr\u00edguez and its impact: it\u2019s everything but an unlikely situation. At the same time, these levels of poverty and insecurity are compatible with a land of opportunity that could get its act together and, taking advantage of external tailwinds, live through a decade of prosperity. Sunday\u2019s vote will take us one step closer to answering whether this is Argentina\u2019s long-awaited moment<\/p>\n<p><em>This <\/em>piece <em>was originally published in the <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/\">Buenos Aires Times<\/em><em>, Argentina&#8217;s only English-language newspaper.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/afontevecchia\/2023\/08\/13\/three-surprises-for-argentinas-presidential-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has forced the whole political ecosystem to hit the brakes and reassess what\u2019s at stake. As the political discussion centered on who would take the primary in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-47868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1691922324_0x0.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"News Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\"},\"headline\":\"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\"},\"wordCount\":1219,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\",\"name\":\"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00\",\"description\":\"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"description\":\"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"width\":558,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Repay Down\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\",\"name\":\"News Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"News Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld","description":"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld","og_description":"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has","og_url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868","og_site_name":"iFintechWorld","article_published_time":"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":672,"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1691922324_0x0.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"News Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"News Room","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868"},"author":{"name":"News Room","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61"},"headline":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election","datePublished":"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868"},"wordCount":1219,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Featured"],"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868","name":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election | iFintechWorld","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-08-13T10:25:23+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-13T10:25:25+00:00","description":"In an election that is drowning in uncertainty, the murder of an 11-year-old girl who was on her way to school when she was attacked by petty thieves has","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47868#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Three Surprises For Argentina\u2019s Presidential Election"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","name":"Repay Down","description":"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization","name":"Repay Down","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","width":558,"height":90,"caption":"Repay Down"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61","name":"News Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","caption":"News Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com"],"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47868"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47870,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47868\/revisions\/47870"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/47869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}