{"id":47249,"date":"2023-08-11T11:54:15","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T15:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/are-we-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-miracle-or-will-we-succomb-to-decrepitude\/"},"modified":"2023-08-11T11:54:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T15:54:17","slug":"are-we-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-miracle-or-will-we-succomb-to-decrepitude","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47249","title":{"rendered":"Are We On The Verge Of An \u201cEconomic Miracle\u201d Or Will We Succomb To Decrepitude?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>A few days separate the Argentine electorate from the transcendental PASO primaries. The electorate appears to be living in a paradoxical moment of euphoria, with a boom in financial assets and consumption, while the country teeters on the verge of default and potential hyperinflation. This fractured reality is both cause and consequence of the extreme levels of uncertainty generated by the complicated macroeconomic situation of the nation and the breakdown of the hegemony of the two leading coalitions, which have fractured internally while giving rise to a third competitive political alternative incarnated by ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei. It isn\u2019t clear whether we are living in an Argentina that is on the cusp of a revolution that will see the nation finally thrive or if the weight of its problems are such that even the grace of fortune, filling the land with precious natural resources, will be insufficient to create the \u201cArgentine miracle\u201d that has remained elusive for decades. In that context, Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich are fighting tooth and nail for a spot in the presidential ticket in what is truly a competitive primary, the likes of which the country hasn\u2019t seen in the past few decades, if ever, but which could erode Juntos por el Cambio\u2019s competitive advantage, while Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner has allowed Sergio Massa to take the lead in order to avoid a disastrous third place in the general election that will leave Uni\u00f3n por la Patria out of the run-off. Milei, who up until recently was seen as the frontrunner in the individual vote for the primaries, has seen his star begin to fade as accusations of financial foul play pile up against him.<\/p>\n<p>As the first veil of uncertainty was lifted with the formal presentation of the electoral tickets just over a month ago, the situation has become even more complex. Counter-intuitively, the economy minister\u2019s emergence to lead the ticket by displacing colleague Eduardo \u2018Wado\u2019 de Pedro (Argentina\u2019s interior minister) gave a massive boost to Uni\u00f3n por la Patria\u2019s voting intentions, despite Massa\u2019s massive levels of public rejection. From a potentially fatal third place, the pan-Peronist coalition inched closer to nearly 30 percent of the vote, according to a poll aggregator put together by political scientist Federico Tiberti from Princeton University a few weeks ago. This sudden and unexpected surge is mirrored by the expected voting intention of their main political rivals, Juntos por el Cambio, which could get close to the 35-percent mark through the sum of Rodr\u00edguez Larreta and Bullrich\u2019s votes. Milei\u2019s incredible rise to around 25 percent, potentially displacing the Peronists and threatening their capacity to make it to the run-off vote, stalled somewhere between April and May and is now showing a steep decline, potentially falling below the 20-percent line. The libertarian vote, seen as an anti-system reaction by a portion of the electorate that is sick and tired with the political \u201ccaste,\u201d along with the blank and undecided vote, and whatever C\u00f3rdoba Province Governor Juan Schiaretti could scrape, seems to be finding its way back to the leading coalitions as the election draws closer.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone\u2019s fighting a different battle, the most interesting of which can be seen in the opposition coalition. The Buenos Aires City mayor has been preparing for this moment all his life, and appeared as the clear frontrunner. Unexpectedly he found a tough competitor in Patricia Bullrich, the former security minister who was up until recently Mauricio Macri\u2019s placeholder PRO party president. Rodr\u00edguez Larreta\u2019s slide in voting intention has thrown his campaign off-balance, moving back from a message of master consensus-builder with the proven experience of running an executive to a combative tough guy who has what it takes to fix the country. It\u2019s not as credible as Bullrich\u2019s message, which touches an anti-Kirchnerite nerve among Juntos por el Cambio\u2019s core voters, along with an image of toughness that is appealing to some of the same people that like Milei. She\u2019s already garnered the support of an important sector of the business elite and has begun to behave like the future president of the country, toning down her rhetoric. It remains to be seen whether Rodr\u00edguez Larreta, who counts with the advantage of controlling the City government\u2019s communications machine, can pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat or whether he\u2019ll have to succumb to his internal rival.<\/p>\n<p>That struggle is intimately tied to what Massa and Uni\u00f3n por la Patria are facing. For months they\u2019ve been suspected of propping up Milei\u2019s campaign, particularly in the Buenos Aires Province, in order to debilitate Rodr\u00edguez Larreta, seen as a tougher opponent in a potential runoff than Bullrich. Massa had to jump through the Peronist hoops to knock-down the \u2018Kirchnerite\u2019 ticket, which was formally announced but never acknowledged by Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, the true seat of power. She quickly handed over her prot\u00e9g\u00e9\u2019s head on a plate, giving Massa and nemesis Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez their picks on the presidential ticket, while keeping for herself the leading spots in the legislative lists, including runs for Wado and son M\u00e1ximo in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies representing Buenos Aires Province, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>After having received Cristina\u2019s blessing, Massa needs to demonstrate that his tenure at the Economy Ministry hasn\u2019t been an all-out disaster. After failing to control inflation, he\u2019s seen two consecutive months of declines to June. The figures, the last before the PASO, showed a slowing of price increases to six percent, the \u201clowest\u201d figure since January but well above the monthly three percent promised last year. July&#8217;s figures will be released after the vote and are expected to converge back toward higher numbers. The Central Bank has effectively run out of hard currency and is thought to be using deposits to face obligations as Massa\u2019s team negotiated a new round of program exemptions and disbursements with the International Monetary Fund that will come after the election. The economy, which Massa supposedly controls, is contracting, meaning he will have to face a situation of his own making in a tough campaign. The expectation, though, was never to win.<\/p>\n<p>Milei also appears to be fighting a battle wth the consequences of his own actions. He saw his voting intention rise from scratch to some 25 percent in just a few years, potentially displacing the Peronists and giving his followers the hope that he could make it to the Casa Rosada. He\u2019s plummeted since as accusations his party are selling spots on the lists have mushroomed. It\u2019s an unspoken truth in the Argentine political system that it is impossible to run a presidential campaign within the limits of the law. Even the supposed anti-corruption activists within Juntos por el Cambio have had to deal with dark money. Now, Milei is in the spotlight for what his advisors apparently did in order to construct a national liberal coalition that could present candidates in every province and municipality. Selling spots on the lists for thousands of dollars and even sexual favors, which is what they are accused of, didn&#8217;t look good for Milei coming into the election. He looks too much like the \u201ccaste\u201d he wants to eliminate. In the same way that his ascent seemed exaggerated, his fall from grace appears excessive, as has his support from certain sectors of the media \u2014 that are also said to be monetizing their spotlight in the heat of the electoral season \u2014 has waned.<\/p>\n<p>The clock is ticking and the Argentine paradox is becoming more explicit than ever, making the political rate race extremely uncertain, and interesting.<\/p>\n<p><em>This <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/opinion-and-analysis\/the-argentine-paradox-becomes-ever-more-explicit.phtml\">piece <\/em><em>was originally published in the <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/\">Buenos Aires Times<\/em><em>, Argentina&#8217;s only English-language newspaper.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/afontevecchia\/2023\/08\/11\/argentine-elections-are-we-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-miracle-or-will-we-succomb-to-decrepitude\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A few days separate the Argentine electorate from the transcendental PASO primaries. The electorate appears to be living in a paradoxical moment of euphoria, with a boom in financial assets and consumption, while the country teeters on the verge of default and potential hyperinflation. This fractured reality is both cause and consequence of the extreme [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-47249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are We On The Verge Of An \u201cEconomic Miracle\u201d Or Will We Succomb To Decrepitude? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A few days separate the Argentine electorate from the transcendental PASO primaries. 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