{"id":47145,"date":"2023-08-11T07:01:58","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T11:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/if-americas-debt-spiral-gets-worse-heres-the-stock-that-may-benefit-says-fund-manager\/"},"modified":"2023-08-11T07:02:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T11:02:00","slug":"if-americas-debt-spiral-gets-worse-heres-the-stock-that-may-benefit-says-fund-manager","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=47145","title":{"rendered":"If America\u2019s debt spiral gets worse, here\u2019s the stock that may benefit, says fund manager"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street is undecided about trying for another rally on Friday, according to early trading in futures. That\u2019s in keeping with the struggle it has been of late, with the S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX<br \/>\n       down six of the last eight sessions amid August\u2019s bearish tendencies.<\/p>\n<p>Some technical factors are causing concern. The Nasdaq 100<br \/>\n        NDX<br \/>\n       is in danger of decisively falling back below its 50-day moving average support trend. Apple<br \/>\n        AAPL,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/202934861\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-0.12%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       did so a week ago, and now its relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, has swiftly dropped to 30, signaling the stock may soon enter short-term oversold territory.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Over the same short period, the yield on the 10-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<br \/>\n       has twitched within a range of roughly 4% to 4.2% as investors try to get a handle on varying inflation and economic growth readings.<\/p>\n<p>So, what\u2019s an investor to do amid such uncertainty? Well, buy the companies that help traders to trade it, reckons VGI Partners, the Australia-based fund manager. In it\u2019s semi-annual investor letter, covering performance to the end of June, VGI highlighted the top ten long investments in its Global Investments fund , three of which provide, to varying degrees, what may be termed the plumbing of the financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>With a weighting of 7% is the London Stock Exchange<br \/>\n        LSEG,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/206625606\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-1.01%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       which VGI is keen to point out has transformed from a traditional exchange into a data and analytics group. After its purchase of data group Refinitiv in 2021, the LSE now generates only 3% of revenues from its legacy cash equities exchange.<\/p>\n<p>Deutsche B\u00f6rse represents about 8% of the portfolio and is deemed atractive says VGI because it provides trading, clearing, pre\/post-trading and data and analytic services in four key operating segments: Trading &amp; Clearing, Fund Services, Security Services and Data &amp; Analytics.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>          <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>DB is a \u201cwell-diversified exchange group whose activities touch on most aspects of European capital markets, offering a blend of transactional and non-transactional revenue exposure,\u201d VGI adds.<\/p>\n<p>But top holding is CME Group<br \/>\n        CME,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210449693\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-0.83%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       with a 9% weighting.  CME operates futures and derivatives exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, and the Dow Jones Index Services.<\/p>\n<p>VGI particularly likes CME\u2019s \u201ceffective monopoly\u201d of trading in interest rate derivatives. \u201cDemand for interest rate derivatives is driven by volatility in interest rate markets, whose effect is compounded by the number of bonds held by those looking to manage interest rate risk and, by extension, market liquidity,\u201d the fund manger notes. And the chart below illustrates this strong relationship. <\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>          <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>VGI expects the growth in the size of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly in relation to privately held US treasuries as the Fed undergoes a balance sheet unwind, to provide important support to a CME\u2019s interest rate derivatives business. CME should also benefit \u2014 as are other exchanges \u2014 from a boost to net interest income from the collateral balances it holds. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe believe that CME\u2019s assets are critical pieces of market infrastructure and will be recognized as such in the future,\u201d VGI concludes.<\/p>\n<h2>Markets<\/h2>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>          <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>U.S. stock-index futures<br \/>\n        ES00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209948968\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.09%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        YM00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210407078\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.01%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        NQ00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210219788\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.22%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       are little changed as benchmark Treasury yields<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<br \/>\n       dip. The dollar<br \/>\n        DXY<br \/>\n       is lower, while oil prices<br \/>\n        CL.1,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/211629951\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.31%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       slip and gold<br \/>\n        GC00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210034565\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.07%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       gains.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Try your hand at the Barron\u2019s crossword puzzle and sudoku games, now running daily along with a weekly digital jigsaw based on the week\u2019s cover story. To see all puzzles,\u00a0click here.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>The buzz<\/h2>\n<p>Economic data on Friday, include the July producer price index report, due at 8:30 a.m., and the August consumer sentiment reading at 10 a.m.. Both times Eastern.<\/p>\n<p>UBS Group<br \/>\n        UBS,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/206172872\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+0.73%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       has terminated a 9 billion Swiss franc ($10.27 billion) loss-protection agreement and a CHF100 billion public-liquidity backstop guaranteed by the Swiss government that were put in place at the time of its takeover of troubled rival Credit Suisse.<\/p>\n<p>The pound<br \/>\n        GBPUSD,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210561263\/realtime\/sampled\" class=\"positive\">+0.34%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       rose back above $1.27 after data showed the U.K. economy grew 0.5% in June, more than twice the 0.2% expected.<\/p>\n<p>Country Garden shares<br \/>\n        2007,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/201681083\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-5.77%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       fell nearly 6%  to below HK$1 for the first time as China\u2019s biggest homebuilder warned of a loss and suffered another ratings downgrade of its debt.<\/p>\n<p>Shares of Cano Health Inc.\u00a0<br \/>\n        CANO,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/219327901\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-0.65%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       are down more than 50% in Friday\u2019s premarket after the primary-care provider and health-management platform said there was \u201csubstantial doubt\u201d about its ability to keep operating.<\/p>\n<h2>Best of the web<\/h2>\n<p>Countries must unite to stave off the threat of a deep-sea resource grab.<\/p>\n<p>Diamonds are on sale. They won\u2019t be forever.<\/p>\n<p>Regulators open floodgates for driverless taxis in San Francisco, whether they\u2019re wanted or not.<\/p>\n<h2>The chart<\/h2>\n<p>Just a reminder from Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, of why some investors are getting twitchy about the recent rally in oil pries because of how it may clobber the happy narrative that major central banks can soon stop raising interest rates. <\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>          <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>\u201cThe correlation between the Brent crude oil price and the five-year forward inflation expectation rate has been 0.88 since 2011,\u201d says Wood. \u201cThis is potentially an awkward development in the context of the prevailing narrative that both the Federal Reserve and the ECB are all but done in this tightening cycle even if the official mantra in both cases remains \u2018data dependent\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Top tickers<\/h2>\n<p>Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Ticker<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Security name<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        TSLA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/203558040\/lastsale\" class=\"positive\">+1.30%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Tesla<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        MULN,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/204868203\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+0.32%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Mullen Automotive<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        AMC,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/200235402\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+1.63%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      AMC Entertainment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        NIO,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/204905836\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-1.56%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Nio<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        WE,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/222085303\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+43.44%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      WeWork<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        NVDA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/200467500\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-0.39%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Nvidia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        GME,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/203755179\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+1.30%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        TTOO,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/206664517\/lastsale\" class=\"negative\">-4.50%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      T2 Biosystems<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        AAPL,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/202934861\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-0.12%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Apple<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n        NKLA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/208704275\/composite\" class=\"positive\">+1.03%<\/bg-quote>\n      <\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Nikola<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Random reads<\/h2>\n<p>A nice new home for Jeff.<\/p>\n<p>Eight legs, nasty bite, big embarrassment.<\/p>\n<p>The theoretical physicists are at it again: something may exist.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but<\/strong><strong> sign up here<\/strong><strong> to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Listen to the <\/strong><strong>Best New Ideas in Money podcast<\/strong><strong> with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/if-america-debt-spiral-gets-worse-heres-the-stock-that-may-benefit-says-fund-manager-537570ff?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street is undecided about trying for another rally on Friday, according to early trading in futures. That\u2019s in keeping with the struggle it has been of late, with the S&amp;P 500 SPX down six of the last eight sessions amid August\u2019s bearish tendencies. Some technical factors are causing concern. The Nasdaq 100 NDX is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-47145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>If America\u2019s debt spiral gets worse, here\u2019s the stock that may benefit, says fund manager | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wall Street is undecided about trying for another rally on Friday, according to early trading in futures. 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