{"id":46903,"date":"2023-08-10T15:49:36","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T19:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/yield-curve-continues-to-warn-of-coming-recession\/"},"modified":"2023-08-10T15:49:39","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T19:49:39","slug":"yield-curve-continues-to-warn-of-coming-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=46903","title":{"rendered":"Yield Curve Continues To Warn Of Coming Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That\u2019s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion.<\/p>\n

The model has a robust track record in calling recessions The Federal Reserve too suspects that economic growth may need to cool, in order to bring down annual inflation to their 2% goal, though recent CPI data has seen inflation cooling. The Fed\u2019s own economists suspect that a recession could be near. However there is hope that a so-called \u201csoft landing\u201d is possible. That said, the S&P 500 has rallied so far in 2023, shrugging off recession fears.<\/p>\n

Other Recession Indicators<\/h2>\n

Aside from the yield curve and the stock market itself, there are plenty of other recession indicators available. Despite this host of metrics, calling recessions accurately is challenging.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Conference Board\u2019s Economic Leading Indicators is declining, potentially giving another recession signal. That said, the leading indicators do include the yield curve and stock market as inputs.<\/p>\n

<\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n

Economist, Claudia Sahm, looks for a near-term increase in the unemployment rate as a clearer signal that a recession is imminent. We haven\u2019t seen that. Unemployment has remained at low levels in 2023 despite some monthly volatility. Still, in a just a few months it\u2019s possible that the picture changes. For example, jobless claims appear to be moving up, although it\u2019s a volatile series.<\/p>\n

Fed Actions<\/h2>\n

Often the Fed raising rates can prompt a recession. Though the Fed have increased interest rates relatively dramatically since 2022, rates may stay higher for longer on the Fed and markets\u2019 current assessment. Short-term interest rates are over 5% currently and could remain around 4% even at the end of 2024 according to the latest implied forecast of the bond market. High short-term interest rates could mean that the yield curve remains inverted for some time. If that happens, then the recession debate too, may go on for many more months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That\u2019s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling recessions The Federal Reserve too […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-46903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nYield Curve Continues To Warn Of Coming Recession | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. 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