{"id":45931,"date":"2023-08-08T11:43:15","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T15:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/goldman-sees-1-5-trillion-flowing-to-ai-heres-where-to-invest\/"},"modified":"2023-08-08T11:43:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T15:43:17","slug":"goldman-sees-1-5-trillion-flowing-to-ai-heres-where-to-invest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=45931","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sees $1.5 Trillion Flowing To AI. Here\u2019s Where To Invest"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The economists at Goldman Sachs have concluded that more than a trillion dollars could be invested in generative artificial intelligence over the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research.<\/p>\n<p>To get your share of that money, you can start a company, invest in a startup, or buy stock in a publicly-traded company likely to benefit most from Generative AI.<\/p>\n<p>Companies likely to enjoy higher revenues from Generative AI \u2014 such as Nvidia and Microsoft<fbs-ticker data-name=\"MSFT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/microsoft\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  MSFT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> \u2014 are pretty well known. Their stock prices could already reflect optimistic assumptions about how much Generative AI will improve their business.<\/p>\n<p>There could be better investment opportunities in less well-known stages of the Generative AI ecosystem. For example, investors may wish to consider shares of companies \u2014 such as Accenture<fbs-ticker data-name=\"ACN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/accenture\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  ACN<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, Snowflake, and ServiceNow<fbs-ticker data-name=\"NOW\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/servicenow\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NOW<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> \u2014 which have introduced Generative AI-related products and services \u2014 but have not quantified their future revenues.<\/p>\n<p>This uncertainty could provide considerable upside if Generative AI helps the companies grow faster than investors expect.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Goldman Sachs Sees Significant Investment In Generative AI<\/h2>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Significant capital will flow into Generative AI. According to Goldman Sachs Economics Research, by 2025, the capital investment could total $200 billion. By 2033 \u2014 combining Goldman Sachs\u2019 assumptions about Generative AI investment as a percent of GDP and a Congressional Budget Office GDP forecast \u2014 I estimate Generative AI investment in the U.S. could top $1.5 trillion by 2033.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman wrote it \u201clooked at previous world-changing innovations Innovations in electricity and personal computers\u201d which sparked investment as high as \u201c2% of U.S. GDP as the technologies were adopted into the broader economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>By enhancing worker productivity, Goldman sees Generative AI eventually having an even bigger impact. As Joseph Briggs, a Goldman Sachs Economist, explained in an August 7 interview, \u201cThe return on investment in Generative AI will come mostly from freeing up the time of workers to perform more productive activity, and less from displacing workers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Generative AI investment could peak at a range between $980 billion to $1.57 trillion by 2033. How so? According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. GDP is forecast to reach $39.2 trillion by 2033. Goldman Sachs envisions AI-related investment could to peak \u201cas high as 2.5 to 4% of GDP in the U.S.\u201d in the next decade.<\/p>\n<p>Why does Goldman see Generative AI as having the world-changing potential of the PC or the electric motor? As Briggs told me, there are three reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>It\u2019s generalized.<\/strong> While AI has been around for decades and was used for specialized domains, only recently has AI been generalized.<\/li>\n<li><strong>It\u2019s original.<\/strong> GAI can produce original results \u2014 in the form of text, images, and multimedia \u2014 that are indistinguishable from human output.<\/li>\n<li><strong>It\u2019s easy to use. <\/strong>Finally, in a big change from last year, Generative AI is so approachable using natural language. Non-technical employees no longer need data scientists to mediate their information requests.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It will take time for the investment in Generative AI to reach its peak as it flows from technology providers to corporate end-users. \u201cBy 2025, some $200 billion will be invested in Generative AI. First the money will have a direct benefit for hyperscalers \u2014 including cloud services providers and Nvidia \u2014 who are developing the technology. After that initial investment has been made, Generative AI will be widely deployed throughout the economy which will boost global productivity by more than one percentage point a year in the decade following widespread usage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Among the end-users some industries will be early adopters. As Briggs said, \u201cWe also looked at business surveys and studied how transformative technologies such as the PC and electric motors were deployed. We don\u2019t expect the biggest changes to be on the next three years \u2014 it is in the three to 10 year period after the initial launch \u2014 between 2o25 and 2030 \u2014 that we will see a significant impact. In the initial period, larger firms in industries \u2014 such as information, professional, scientific, and educational \u2014 that have already adopted AI are most likely to adopt Generative AI first.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Goldman sees Generative AI as being a hot buzzword as ChatGPT catalyzed conversations between companies and investors. \u201cMarket interest in AI has already increased rapidly, with more than 16% of companies in the Russell 3000 mentioning the technology on earnings calls, up from less than just 1% of those firms in 2016,\u201d Briggs wrote.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Companies With Quantified Generative AI Revenue Forecasts<\/h2>\n<p>Since May 24, when Nvidia published its eye-popping revenue forecast for the current quarter, investors have bid up shares of the most obvious beneficiaries of GAI investment.<\/p>\n<p>Two companies whose shares have soared since then may already reflect much of that upside in their share prices:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Nvidia Stock Up 48% Since May 24<\/h3>\n<p>Nvidia\u2019s GPU chips and its software and services give it a leadership position in helping companies use Generative AI. On May 25, Nvidia reported on its April 2023-ending first quarter \u2014 including a Q2 revenue forecast of $11 billion \u2014 54% above estimates.<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia\u2019s stock has risen considerably and is highly valued. At a price\/earnings ratio of 57.2, Nvidia is quite expensive compared to rivals\u2019 average P\/E of 21.5, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>. Nvidia\u2019s 12-month price target of $504.46 is some 11% higher than its August 7 price of $454.17, <em>TipRanks<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Microsoft Stock Up 4.5% Since May 24<\/h3>\n<p>Microsoft famously invested some $10 billion in OpenAI in January, which developed ChatGPT. Moreover, Microsoft plans to launch CoPilot, a ChatGPT fueled assistant for users of Excel, PowerPoint, and Word I estimated in April could add $40 billion to the company\u2019s revenue. In July, Macquarie estimated CoPilot could add $14 billion to Microsoft\u2019s revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Microsoft stock has not risn much since May and its valuation is reasonable. At a price\/earnings ratio of 30, Microsoft is expensive compared to its industry peers which trade at an average P\/E of 28.2, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>. Microsoft\u2019s 12-month price target of $392.97 is about 19% above its August 7 price of of $330.11, <em>TipRanks<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Companies With Uncertain GAI Revenue<\/h2>\n<p>Other firms may present more upside for investors looking to risk buying stock in companies which have not made specific forecasts of how much revenue AI will add to their top lines.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Accenture Stock Up 9% Since May 24<\/h3>\n<p>Companies will hire consultants to help them evaluate whether and how to use Generative AI. Accenture \u2014 while not providing an estimate of how much additional revenue it will generate \u2014 has invested $3 billion and is hiring 40,000 people \u2014 doubling its staff to help clients with AI, according to the company.<\/p>\n<p>Accenture stock has increased modetately while its valuation is a bit elevated. At a price\/earnings ratio of 27.2, Accenture trades above its industry peers which trade at an average P\/E of 23.9, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>. Accenture\u2019s 12-month price target of $344.55 represents a 10.29% change from its August 7 price of $312.40, <em>TipRanks<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">ServiceNow Stock Up 9% Since May 24<\/h3>\n<p>ServiceNow is introducing AI-powered services and has declined to quantify how much they will add to its revenue. For example, as CEO Bill McDermott told me in a July 26 interview, ServiceNow is developing AI Lighthouse \u2014 in collaboration with Nvidia \u2014 which will use Generative AI to develop services to boost productivity for specific industries.<\/p>\n<p>ServiceNow stock has risen modestly while its valuation is high compared to peers. At a price\/earnings ratio of 55, ServiceNow is expensive compared to its industry peers which trade at an average P\/E of 39.2, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>. ServiceNow\u2019s 12-month price target of $638.24 represents 16.76% upside from its August 7 price of $546.62, according to TipRanks.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Snowflake<fbs-ticker data-name=\"SNOW\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/snowflake\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  SNOW<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> Stock Down 11.3% Since May 24<\/h3>\n<p>Snowflake is developing new products and has formed a partnership to help companies benefit from large language models (LLMs), according to my May 2023 interview with CEO Frank Slootman. While declining to discuss how much additional revenue these would add, a spokesperson told me generative AI market is worth \u201chundreds of billions of dollars.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Snowflake shares have fallen and its valuation is very high compared to peers. At a price\/earnings ratio of 273.2, Snowflake is expensive compared to its industry peers which trade at an average P\/E of 69.5, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>. Snowflake\u2019s 12-month price target of $190.27 is 21.08% above its August 7 price of $157.15, <em>TipRanks<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>If you are patient and willing to risk that these three companies will win a significant piece of the Generative AI pie, you could invest in their shares and wait until they execute on that vision.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/08\/08\/goldman-sees-15-trillion-flowing-to-ai-heres-where-to-invest\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The economists at Goldman Sachs have concluded that more than a trillion dollars could be invested in generative artificial intelligence over the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research. To get your share of that money, you can start a company, invest in a startup, or buy stock in a publicly-traded company likely to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-45931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Goldman Sees $1.5 Trillion Flowing To AI. 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