{"id":45862,"date":"2023-08-08T08:49:18","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T12:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/sofi-technologies-strong-q2-is-a-step-toward-q4-profitability\/"},"modified":"2023-08-08T08:49:21","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T12:49:21","slug":"sofi-technologies-strong-q2-is-a-step-toward-q4-profitability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=45862","title":{"rendered":"SoFi Technologies: Strong Q2 Is A Step Toward Q4 Profitability"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Since my last article, SoFi Technologies (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:SOFI<\/span>) has climbed more than 45%. I still believe the second half of the year will be the pivotal point for the digital bank due to the return of student loan payments<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> next October. While the Q2 earnings were a mixed bag for me, the company still had a pretty decent quarter with a revenue beat, adding members at an above-average rate, and impressive growth in loan originations. Looking at the bigger picture, the digital bank quadrupling its market share of new checking accounts opened is a great indicator of its future growth, especially since it outpaced other digital banks, which is why I\u2019m reiterating my SoFi strong buy rating.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">SoFi\u2019s Growth<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">According to a study released by Cornerstone Advisors, American digital banks have increased their share of new checking accounts opened in 2023<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> to 47%, while regional banks and megabanks have declined to 21% and 17% respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_EL_HQuHoP9lfYVStgkAtM87a4gN-6bcnQPKkdSY4QCZRPuoXKhjnompA1YjsuC-78mRuQIenX0oKjjl-lU_5cu5CQqY9qGW7lWP3O-KWthK4P-iTQAsF9wYcyJC5iI6SUAQxbtEhGQdcJfKLUY_c7-4.jpeg\" alt=\"Percentage of New Checking Accounts Opened by Type of Institution\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Cornerstone Advisors<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While this by itself would be a great indication of the future of SoFi and digital banking, what is more impressive is SoFi quadrupling its market share from 1% in 2020 to 4% in 2023. With that, SoFi would\u2019ve bypassed Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), which has seen its share of accounts opened drop from 8.1% to 3.5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While this doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that people are ditching mega banks in favor of digital banks since you can have an account in more than one bank, it indicates that people are more open to the idea of digital banks. That is probably due to the bulk of new accounts belonging to relatively young customers, with 72% of new checking accounts belonging to Gen Z and Millennials. With more than 28.87 million Gen Z Americans under the age of 18, this number will further increase since 4 million Gen Z-ers open bank accounts per year.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Q2 Overview<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td> <\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Q2 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Members Added<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>584<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Members<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>6,240<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Adjusted Net Revenue<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$488<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue\/Member<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.080<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Expenses<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$547<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>EPS<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-0.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">SoFi achieved $488 million in adjusted revenue, added 584 thousand new members in Q2 2023 and met analysts EPS estimate of -$0.06. The $488 million adjusted net revenue came more than $8 million above the management\u2019s high end forecast of $480 million. At the same time, the 580 thousand added members stopped a starting trend of a slower sequential members growth that the digital bank was suffering from since Q1 2022.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_m1UfyGdxGbvWuwvWz9cLMIWMk7Bu66t8y8jXl-y_SdmmT7XezfBvqged2bVsiS-sFwbXBwnRCs_fYHn_2EHSkACZAVuovk_4S4hQt580MsYnab_9NS_Y_3YaZTs1WDsI9vvNK6J3HtatM4pbvghpfpo.png\" alt=\"SOFI's Quarterly Members Growth\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SEC Filings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While the revenue beat is good news for SoFi, I believe it should\u2019ve realized more revenue based on the 580 thousand members added, since there\u2019s a strong correlation between its total members and its revenue.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_T4dmjKjkK-fZB6I27_IYlQMdXPBHwOeWtXUnh-TrK11VmjCEs-KPe51JDC2_JKGKmJw1CQ8PpgezK2zSxvUz3j__pc5-DmjSu5sCI_fNLQd3fuUuKBhMR_xf6rGX-12Z-PMZucMRrOky1UPpd7CEuyo.png\" alt=\"Net revenue vs members\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SEC filings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, In Q2 2023 SoFi recorded its lowest revenue per member since Q1 2020 and it represents the third consecutive quarter of decline in revenue per member. A similar trend can be seen in the revenue per product chart.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_ZqVb3BqJ-G3S7623RDIBpqwIFCp3pV7XG6Rbwd7IffQD4RKn2JBRyWzTnbwJp7rSnq2wqkAd1H7seqaEplnXKqrt0m7ndKNUz7Y-EC2phJFr4-NmBIC4tve_0uDdtnuGrMrkj2NE31pjX4aKDdrVO5U.png\" alt=\"Revenue\/member per quarter\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SEC Filings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_l_5-165x9UBTPVTjeHej8HZTdI0YgO1Abc-_cyOUBbDK07MLitvZGLBSh2RX_0JaAvqdJUhOPGy51xmBkldIBdtTMQfXb8aASRJ2hhmHuIHtQJpS_QDpVotI0KZDaPXaycWXPtPvAJtsl6bsr-YC0Fk.png\" alt=\"Revenue\/product per quarter\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SEC Filings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That said, I believe that the decline can be attributed to the rising interest rates, from 3.25% at the start of Q4 2022 to 5.25% at the end of the second quarter. So I believe the revenue per product or member should start improving again if the Fed starts to cut interest rates in the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With that out of the way, we can talk about SoFi\u2019s loan originations for the quarter which for me is one of the quarter\u2019s highlights. SoFi grew its total loan originations YoY by a whopping 37%. While home loan originations declined by 37%, it isn\u2019t really a big deal since it only makes around 5% of its loan originations. What is impressive is the digital bank maintaining the 50% growth in personal loan originations for the third consecutive quarter now and reaching a record personal loan originations of $3.7 billion.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_AIcmdVEUuUcnd__9C4WzKtLYam3JETzDtuxDJTY1P5fnsAd1xrnvvsYPnHUbHKOe5wS14-YwFoWGBNtJQVIXiscPM8VBgd83mSo7jNpD2GJh4d-6zu5SNPaenF757c1dUnZqlvjcHyaBzLTBPPPrLB0.png\" alt=\"Personal loan originations by quarter\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SEC Filings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Student loan originations remained relatively flat at $395 million, which makes sense as student loan payments are yet to resume and we should see its effects starting from Q3 2023, since people should start refinancing their student loans in late Q3 with payments starting in October.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Second Half Surprise?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I believe the second half could bring a surprise for SoFi with the return of student loan payments. I project SoFi\u2019s member growth numbers to stay relatively flat due to the natural YoY deceleration being offset by the possible increase in members due to the return of student loan payments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A 44% YoY growth would see SoFi\u2019s members at 6.8 million. Since we already established that there\u2019s a strong correlation between SoFi\u2019s members and its net revenue, we can project its Q3 net revenue to be around $555 million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, SoFi has maintained its noninterest expenses growth in the low 20s for the past three quarters, so we can project Q3 noninterest expenses growth to be around 22.16%, which would make the noninterest expenses projection around $589 million.<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Quarter<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Noninterest expense(million)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Noninterest expense growth<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Q4 2022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$480<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>23.71%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Q1 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$500<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>21.95%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Q2 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$547<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>22.37%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Q3 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$589<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>22.16%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With these numbers, we can then project SoFi\u2019s net loss to be around -$34 million or an EPS of -$0.05.<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td> <\/td>\n<td>\n<p>All in millions except EPS<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Members<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>6.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Revenue<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$555<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue\/Member<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.081<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Expenses<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$589<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>EPS<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$0.035<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I believe SoFi will reach profitability in Q4 as the student loan payments will resume in October with Q3 providing a nice setup for this goal.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Risks<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">One of the biggest risks facing any bank is the delinquency rate of its customers. Delinquency rates have been climbing since the start of 2022 and are approaching pre-pandemic levels; if that continues, it will put banks&#8217; revenue at risk. While SoFi\u2019s personal loan borrowers have a pretty high average income of $164,000 and a high weighted average FICO score of 769, delinquency is still a risk to take into consideration.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_Hj3S5d0mCeMkTY5tyRl_OH6YQK1WBU9OLo6xMqA7syLlTOkDg6v7-wkTkrLj3aca976A4_lrGEiHL7_8VtKgiIScf5c3mORL4MhizubCDIoVGfiOevydXvFXG0oGIvoysKQg8Ggpe7f1Ok4Du5wmdrs.png\" alt=\"Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Fred<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Another risk is the Fed\u2019s Chair Jerome Powell saying that he doesn\u2019t see inflation reaching 2% before 2025. This may imply that the Fed won\u2019t cut interest rates before 2025 meaning that SoFi\u2019s revenue per member could continue to slide even further.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/saupload_H3-VpTJNHD37CJOq3TP5XBXslaFysrvDCuXEVhPswb8t_hn9zrHUuNNsAvz9D7BRdgsQCdkWEdMMrLUG1r8a38yJc7v5Iq9XeY89qrjGPD2Kjx-2-QfeYvL08q0kbCA_3yACd3iP80Gb-z05D-Y6mzQ_thumb1.png\" alt=\"Tradingview Chart\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Tradingview Chart<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking at the daily chart, SoFi\u2019s trend is neutral, with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $7.81 and $10.23. As for the indicators, the stock is trading above the 21, 50, and 200 MAs, which is a bullish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is overbought at 75 and the MACD is bullish. It is also worth noting that SOFI has broken its $10.23 resistance after the release of its Q2 earnings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since I expect SoFi to have a decent Q3 and turn profitable in Q4, retests of the 21 MA and the $8.86 support would be good entry points ahead of Q3 earnings.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I believe SoFi can increase its market share as more young people become able to open checking accounts. Furthermore, SoFi had decent Q2 earnings with revenue beat and breaking the deceleration in members growth. While the lower revenue per member can be concerning, I believe it is a temporary decline and the revenue per member numbers will start normalizing if the Fed starts rate cuts. That said, I still believe the second half of the year will be the true turning point for the digital bank since I think it will achieve profitability in Q4 with the resumption of student loan payments. The decent Q2 SoFi had and my projection of it reaching profitability in Q4 due to the resumption of student loan payments in October make it hard to see SoFi stock as anything but a strong buy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4625107-sofi-strong-q2-step-toward-q4-profitability?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since my last article, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) has climbed more than 45%. I still believe the second half of the year will be the pivotal point for the digital bank due to the return of student loan payments next October. While the Q2 earnings were a mixed bag for me, the company still had a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45863,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-45862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>SoFi Technologies: Strong Q2 Is A Step Toward Q4 Profitability | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Since my last article, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) has climbed more than 45%. 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