{"id":44963,"date":"2023-08-05T20:54:04","date_gmt":"2023-08-06T00:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/the-bear-market-has-been-nearly-erased-heres-what-comes-next\/"},"modified":"2023-08-05T20:54:06","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T00:54:06","slug":"the-bear-market-has-been-nearly-erased-heres-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963","title":{"rendered":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

How bullish is that the S&P 500
\n SPX,
\n -0.53%<\/bg-quote>
\n is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with dividends reinvested (total return) is just 2.0% below its January 2022 all-time high. Even a modestly good week in the stock market could push this benchmark over the top.<\/p>\n

If this does happen soon, the recovery from the 2022 bear market would be one of the quickest in history. It\u2019s been less than 10 months since the S&P 500\u2019s bear market low last Oct. 12.<\/p>\n

\n

Unfortunately for the bulls, the market\u2019s future can\u2019t be judged on the speed of this recovery. Quick recoveries don\u2019t necessarily presage better subsequent stock market performance than longer recoveries.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

To reach this conclusion, I analyzed all bear markets since 1900 in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In each case, I calculated how long it took for the U.S. stock market to rise above the level at which it stood when that bear market began. I then measured the correlations between that recovery time and the stock market\u2019s performance over the one-, two- and three years subsequent to that recovery.<\/p>\n

None satisfied traditional standards of statistical significance. Sometimes, as was the case after the February-March 2020 bear market, a quick recovery time (just five months in that case) was followed by strong subsequent market performance. But the market also performed extremely well subsequent to the four-year recovery from the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n

This result is what we should expect, given the stock market\u2019s efficiency. One of the hallmarks of that efficiency is that the market is forward-looking. How it will perform in coming months is a function of whether the news will be better or worse than currently expected \u2014 not how the stock market performed prior to now.<\/p>\n

Imagine for a moment if a quick recovery time did increase the odds of strong subsequent performance. In that case, traders would rush in to buy stocks, and by doing that would bid up prices until the market\u2019s expected future return is no better than average.<\/p>\n

The bottom line? We can all celebrate the stock market\u2019s recent strength. But celebration is not an investment strategy. Our job as investors will return to what it always is: analyzing whether the news is coming in better or worse than expected.<\/p>\n

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with dividends reinvested (total return) is just 2.0% below its January 2022 all-time high. Even a modestly good week in the stock market could push this benchmark over the top. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-44963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nThe bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1691283245_social.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"News Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\"},\"headline\":\"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next.\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\"},\"wordCount\":441,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Investing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\",\"name\":\"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00\",\"description\":\"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next.\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"description\":\"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"width\":558,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Repay Down\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\",\"name\":\"News Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"News Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld","description":"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld","og_description":"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with","og_url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963","og_site_name":"iFintechWorld","article_published_time":"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":640,"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1691283245_social.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"News Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"News Room","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963"},"author":{"name":"News Room","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61"},"headline":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next.","datePublished":"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963"},"wordCount":441,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Featured"],"articleSection":["Investing"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963","name":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next. | iFintechWorld","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-08-06T00:54:04+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-06T00:54:06+00:00","description":"How bullish is that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% is close to completely recovering from its 2022 bear market losses? The benchmark U.S. stock index with","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44963#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The bear market has been nearly erased. Here\u2019s what comes next."}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","name":"Repay Down","description":"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization","name":"Repay Down","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","width":558,"height":90,"caption":"Repay Down"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61","name":"News Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","caption":"News Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com"],"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44963"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44963\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44965,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44963\/revisions\/44965"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/44964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}