{"id":44035,"date":"2023-08-03T12:50:57","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T16:50:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/my-18-months-of-being-correct-but-lonely-in-calling-no-recession\/"},"modified":"2023-08-03T12:50:59","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T16:50:59","slug":"my-18-months-of-being-correct-but-lonely-in-calling-no-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44035","title":{"rendered":"My 18 Months Of Being Correct (But Lonely) In Calling No-Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Expressing optimism can be difficult: there is a wide tendency to regard doomsayers as \u201csophisticated\u201d and silver-lining-finders as \u201cna\u00efve.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bank of America\u2019s<fbs-ticker data-name=\"BAC\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/bank-of-america\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  BAC<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> announcement yesterday reversing its prediction of a coming recession prompted me to revisit the statements I\u2019ve published over the past 18 months, during which I consistently pushed against the dominant recession-is-coming narrative.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2022Q1 Quarterly Markets Report: \u201cA few economists, most prominently those at Deutsche Bank, have already forecast a U.S. recession in 2023. \u2026 Three related sources of strength suggest that overall economic conditions are likely to remain favorable: labor markets, personal incomes, and consumer spending.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary April 1, 2022: \u201cThe yield curve inversions this week would have worried me if yesterday\u2019s Personal Income &amp; Outlays report or today\u2019s Employment Report had been weak, but they weren\u2019t\u2014so I think the right thing to do, at least for now, is to treat it as a false alarm.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary April 27, 2022: \u201cWhile some are crying out that \u2018a recession has started,\u2019 I think that&#8217;s completely wrong.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary July 8, 2022: \u201cIn a recession we generally see weakness in employment, income, and consumption. I\u2019m still waiting for data that convinces me we\u2019re seeing genuine weakness in any of those three, never mind all three.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>LinkedIn article August 12, 2022: \u201cTaken together, the data continue to reinforce the idea that the U.S. is NOT in a recession.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>2022Q3 Quarterly Markets Report: \u201cThe fact that all three pillars of macroeconomic strength remain firm means that we simply are not in a recession, technical or otherwise.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary November 11, 2022: \u201cIn general, macroeconomic conditions reinforce the fact that the economy is <em>not<\/em> currently in a recession.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary November 23, 2022: \u201cThe general consensus remains that there is likely to be a mild recession next year, but data like these are increasingly causing me to question whether even a mild recession will materialize.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary December 2, 2022: \u201cI\u2019ve been continuing to develop my own inflation forecasting model, and it still isn\u2019t providing a strong signal of a coming recession.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>2022Q4 Quarterly Markets Report, which attached 50% chance to a mild recession, 30% to a soft landing, and 20% to a significant recession: \u201cThe simple question is this: with the conditions for recession having been in place for some six months, why haven\u2019t the recessionary conditions actually materialized?\u201d<\/li>\n<li>LinkedIn article January 6, 2023: \u201cMy model still doesn\u2019t predict a recession: the probability sits as just 22% following this morning\u2019s employment report.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Forbes.com article February 3, 2023: \u201cit\u2019s important to understand that the jobs market now looks Nothing. Like. The Great Recession.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary March 3, 2023: \u201cThere is still a solid chance that the economy will enter a recession toward the end of this year. The continued resilience, however, has reduced the likelihood: my latest recession probability model puts it at just 37% by next January.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>2023Q1 Quarterly Markets Report: \u201cWhile some market participants have been forecasting for more than a year that the U.S. economy will go into a recession\u2014with most foreseeing a mild one but a few calling for a severe one\u2014actual economic conditions have stubbornly refused to comply.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Widely distributed internal commentary May 5, 2023: \u201cI think there\u2019s a solid chance that we may end up seeing the very first example of a solidly negative [Near-Term Forward Spread] that <em>doesn\u2019t<\/em> lead to a recession.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Forbes.com article May 16, 2023: \u201cthe U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession altogether.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Forbes.com article June 30, 2023: \u201cthe strength in housing construction brought the probability of a recession down by about 17 percentage points according to my forecasting model.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>2023Q2 Quarterly Markets Report: \u201cthe likelihood of any recession has diminished sharply in favor of the increasingly convincing prospect of a soft landing.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Forbes.com article August 1, 2023: \u201cthe likelihood of a recession has plummeted. \u2026 [U]pdating the model using data through June (that is, the latest data available by the end of July) brings the probability down to just 15%.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To be clear, I have never said that a recession could not or would not occur. Instead, I have consistently said that there was not an adequate basis for making a clear-eyed recession prediction. And that remains my position.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/bradcase\/2023\/08\/03\/my-18-months-of-being-correct-but-lonely-in-calling-no-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expressing optimism can be difficult: there is a wide tendency to regard doomsayers as \u201csophisticated\u201d and silver-lining-finders as \u201cna\u00efve.\u201d Bank of America\u2019s BAC announcement yesterday reversing its prediction of a coming recession prompted me to revisit the statements I\u2019ve published over the past 18 months, during which I consistently pushed against the dominant recession-is-coming narrative. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-44035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>My 18 Months Of Being Correct (But Lonely) In Calling No-Recession | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Expressing optimism can be difficult: there is a wide tendency to regard doomsayers as \u201csophisticated\u201d and silver-lining-finders as \u201cna\u00efve.\u201d Bank of\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=44035\" 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