{"id":43103,"date":"2023-08-01T12:46:07","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T16:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/carvana-stock-up-892-redditors-cheer-as-shorts-get-squeezed\/"},"modified":"2023-08-01T12:46:09","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T16:46:09","slug":"carvana-stock-up-892-redditors-cheer-as-shorts-get-squeezed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=43103","title":{"rendered":"Carvana Stock Up 892%, Redditors Cheer As Shorts Get Squeezed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Carvana stock has had a nice run so far in 2023 \u2014 soaring 892%.<\/p>\n<p>With plunging revenue, a negative net worth, and a debt restructuring deal with considerable weaknesses, this Tempe, Arizona-based online used car dealer\u2019s stock ended July down 88% from its July 2021 all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>That is not stopping the meme crowd from squeezing the short sellers \u2014 47.1% of the used car vendor\u2019s shares are sold short, according to the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>. Is it too late to buy Carvana stock? Analysts see the stock as over-valued.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Carvana\u2019s Second Quarter Financial Condition<\/h2>\n<p>In the second quarter, Carvana reported better than expected results \u2014 though mixed when compared to the year before. According to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/07\/19\/carvana-deal-to-reduce-debt-shares-soar.html\">CNBC<\/em><em>, <\/em>here are the key numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Revenue down 24%<\/strong> to $2.97 billion \u2014 exceeding the Refinitiv estimate by $380 million<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net loss down 76% <\/strong>to ($105 million) compared to the year before\u2019s ($439 million)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gross profit per unit up 94%<\/strong> to $6,520 compared to the year before<\/li>\n<li><strong>Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and interest: $155 million <\/strong>\u2014 an improvement over Carvana\u2019s negative EBITDA of $216 million the year before<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Carvana was pleased with the results. Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia said in a statement, \u201cOur strong execution has made the business fundamentally better, and combined with today\u2019s agreement with noteholders that reduces our cash interest expense and total debt outstanding, gives us great confidence that we are on the right path to complete our three-step plan and return to growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How Carvana Got Into A Pickle<\/h2>\n<p>Unfortunately, Carvana\u2019s liabilities ended the second quarter at $9.25 billion \u2014 $1.4 billion more than its assets, according to the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>In early December 2022, Carvana\u2019s stock lost 33% of its value when Wedbush cited a risk of bankruptcy. <em>Bloomberg<\/em> reported creditors who controlled about 70% of Carvana\u2019s unsecured debt had agreed to act together in negotiations. This deal prompted Wedbush to set a $1 price target for Carvana \u2014 then trading at $4 a share \u2014 citing rising bankruptcy risks at Carvana.<\/p>\n<p>How did Carvana get in so much trouble? As <em>CNBC<\/em> reported, demand for Carvana\u2019s used car service was robust during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers opted for online purchasing rather than in-person visits to dealerships.<\/p>\n<p>Carvana was unable to keep up with the surge in demand and lacked sufficient people to process the vehicles it had in stock. In response, Carvana paid $2.2 billion to acquire ADESA\u2019s physical auction business and a record number of vehicles at very high prices, noted <em>CNBC<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Last November Carvana faced numerous problems \u2014 some of which remain and others on which the company is making progress. These two problems remain:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Declining industry demand. <\/strong>Demand was softening for Carvana and CarMax<fbs-ticker data-name=\"KMX\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/carmax\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n   KMX<br \/>\n  <\/fbs-ticker> and large franchised new and used vehicle dealers such as Lithia Motors<fbs-ticker data-name=\"LAD\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/lithia-motors\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n   LAD<br \/>\n  <\/fbs-ticker> and AutoNation<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/autonation\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n   AN<br \/>\n  <\/fbs-ticker>. The 24% decline in Carvana\u2019s second quarter revenue suggests this problem remains.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gloomy forecast.<\/strong> Carvana was not optimistic about 2023. Garcia described 2023 as \u201ca difficult one.\u201d As he told investors in November 2022, \u201cCars are an expensive, discretionary, often-financed purchase that inflated much more than other goods in the economy over the last couple years and it is clearly having an impact on people\u2019s purchasing decisions.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These have improved:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Weaker cash position. <\/strong>Between June and September 2022, Carvana\u2019s cash balance declined by $734 million \u2014 leaving Carvana with a mere $316 million in cash. By June 30, 2023, the company\u2019s cash had increased to $1 billion.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Lower profits from selling loans.<\/strong> Before 2022, Carvana\u2019s gains from selling loans along with other ancillary fees accounted for more than half of Carvana\u2019s gross profit per unit. But gross profit per unit from selling loans and other fees dropped 23% from $2,500 to $1,921 in the third quarter of 2022, noted <em>Financial Times. <\/em>This figure has since increased over three-fold.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Carvana\u2019s July Debt Restructuring Deal<\/h2>\n<p>Carvana spent about a year working on a deal to restructure its debt. On July 19, it announced the terms \u2014 which reduced its debt by $1.2 billion. Carvana stock rose 40% thereafter, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>The deal will eliminate \u201cover 83% of its 2025 and 2027 unsecured note maturities and lower its required cash interest expense by more than $430 million per year for the next two years,\u201d noted the <em>Journal<\/em>. Shareholders will be diluted by a separate deal to sell as many as $1 billion worth of its common shares.<\/p>\n<p>Carvana was happy with this deal. Carvana CFO<fbs-ticker data-name=\"CFO\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/investment-funds\/cfo\/\" data-type=\"etf\"><br \/>\n  CFO<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> Mark Jenkins said in a statement, \u201cThis transaction significantly increases our financial flexibility by reducing our total debt, extending maturities, and lowering near-term cash interest expense as we continue to execute our plan of driving significant profitability and returning to growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The deal covers roughly $5.2 billion of senior, unsecured bonds and includes Apollo Global Management, its largest bondholder. The deal gives creditors new secured notes which will come due later than the old notes.<\/p>\n<p>The new notes have very high interest rates \u2014 yet Carvana will not pay the $430 million worth of interest in cash for two years. Instead, the interest will increase the principal amount of the loan, according to the New York Times<fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>Apollo Global Management is comfortable with the terms. John Zito, deputy chief investment officer of credit at Apollo, said in a statement, \u201cApollo is pleased to support this debt exchange agreement, which stands to significantly strengthen Carvana\u2019s financial position while providing creditors with new first lien debt.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Carvana\u2019s Popularity With The Meme Crowd<\/h2>\n<p>Carvana\u2019s stock has risen so much thanks, in part, to a short squeeze. Short sellers borrow stock, sell it in the open market, and hope to repay the shares they borrowed at a lower price after the stock falls.<\/p>\n<p>When shares of such a stock go up, the lenders of shares often demand the short sellers immediately repay their loans. This forces the short sellers to buy shares \u2014 driving them up even further.<\/p>\n<p>According to Finbold, Carvana\u2019s rally reflects such a short squeeze \u2014 sparked by traders who share their views on Reddit. In July, Carvana was the seventh most-trending stock on Reddit.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Carvana Stock Is Going<\/h2>\n<p>Wall Street analysts expect Carvana stock to fall.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Jefferies\u2019 Carvana Pessimism<\/h3>\n<p>Jefferies is pessimistic about Carvana \u2014 lowering its rating from underperform to hold. According to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/carvanas-stock-downgraded-once-more-as-analyst-says-wall-street-overlooks-these-risks-79c2bcae\">MarketWatch<\/em>, analyst John Colantuoni wrote in a weekend note to clients, Carvana\u2019s strong increase in GPU reflects transitory tailwinds such as \u201cwider wholesale\/retail spreads and the timing of loan sales\u201d that will not continue.<\/p>\n<p>He expects unit growth to resume in 2024, putting downward pressure on GPU. Further, he expects \u201can acceleration in unit growth [in 2024] leading to inefficiencies that further negatively impact per unit economics.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Colantuoni cut his price target to $30 from $55 in his latest report, while warning concerns about the \u201cviability\u201d of Carvana\u2019s business model could return, noted <em>MarketWatch<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Morgan Stanley Questions Carvana\u2019s Business Model<\/h3>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees significant challenges facing Carvana management. According to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/news\/article\/carvana-stock-why-morgan-stanley-says-its-time-to-sell\">TipRanks<\/em>, Jonas praised Carvana for cutting costs and restructuring its debt.<\/p>\n<p>He also sees significant challenges for used car consumers and \u201cthe viability of CVNA\u2019s long term business model.\u201d Jonas wrote Carvana\u2019s current stock price already factors in \u201ca transition back to growth.\u201d He questions whether Carvana can grow while maintaining the high GPU the company reported in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p><em>TipRanks<\/em> reports analysts who have set a 12-month price target see Carvana stock falling about 14% to $37.69 in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/08\/01\/carvana-stock-up-892-redditors-cheer-as-shorts-get-squeezed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Carvana stock has had a nice run so far in 2023 \u2014 soaring 892%. With plunging revenue, a negative net worth, and a debt restructuring deal with considerable weaknesses, this Tempe, Arizona-based online used car dealer\u2019s stock ended July down 88% from its July 2021 all-time high. That is not stopping the meme crowd from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-43103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Carvana Stock Up 892%, Redditors Cheer As Shorts Get Squeezed | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carvana stock has had a nice run so far in 2023 \u2014 soaring 892%. 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