{"id":43065,"date":"2023-08-01T11:08:07","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T15:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/10-year-treasury-yield-back-above-4-on-signs-of-tight-u-s-labor-market\/"},"modified":"2023-08-01T11:08:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T15:08:08","slug":"10-year-treasury-yield-back-above-4-on-signs-of-tight-u-s-labor-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=43065","title":{"rendered":"10-year Treasury yield back above 4% on signs of tight U.S. labor market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002347360\" role=\"document\">\n<p>Two- through 30-year Treasury yields rose Tuesday morning, pushing the benchmark 10-year rate back above 4%, after U.S. data pointed to a still-strong labor market.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<h2>What\u2019s happening<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The yield on the 2-year Treasury<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD02Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">4.907%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       rose 2.6 basis points to 4.9% from 4.874% on Monday.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 10-year Treasury<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">4.048%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       jumped 8.3 basis points to  4.039% from 3.956% Monday afternoon.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 30-year Treasury<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD30Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">4.098%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       advanced 7 basis points to 4.086% from 4.016% late Monday.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What\u2019s driving markets<\/h2>\n<p>Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings were little changed at around 9.6 million in June, and that the number of workers who quit in June decreased to 3.8 million from 4 million in May \u2014 signaling that the labor market remains quite tight.<\/p>\n<p>A strong jobs market is seen as likely to contribute to inflationary pressures and put pressure on the policy-setting Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated. More U.S. labor-related data is expected to arrive over the next few days, including Wednesday\u2019s ADP private-sector jobs report for July, weekly initial unemployment claims on Thursday, and July\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. <\/p>\n<p>In other data released on Tuesday, S&amp;P Global\u2019s final U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers\u2019 index reading for July came in at 49.0, the same as the initial reading. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 46.4% in July from 46% previously, yet indicated that manufacturers remain mired in a slump. And construction spending was up 0.5% in June after a revised 1.1% gain in the prior month<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Markets are pricing in a 79.5% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.5% on Sept. 20, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to a range of 5.5%-5.75% at the subsequent meeting in November is priced at 31.2%.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank is most expected to take its fed funds rate target back down to around 5% or lower by next May.<\/p>\n<h2>What analysts are saying<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cOur base case scenario for the next few weeks is that the debate will shift beyond whether the FOMC will pause in September as the data provides confirmation of the merits of skipping the next meeting,\u201d said BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery. \u201cThis dynamic will put November 1 into focus and in doing so serve as a reminder that there is a lot of data between now and the final two Fed decisions of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTranslating this into any meaningful direction for U.S. rates is complicated by the trajectory of the global economy and building concerns that while the U.S. economy might be on strong enough footing to endure elevated policy rates for an extended period of time other regions will prove more vulnerable,\u201d they said in a note.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/treasury-yields-stalled-ahead-of-jobs-data-barrage-da8298f0?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two- through 30-year Treasury yields rose Tuesday morning, pushing the benchmark 10-year rate back above 4%, after U.S. data pointed to a still-strong labor market. What\u2019s happening The yield on the 2-year Treasury TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.907% rose 2.6 basis points to 4.9% from 4.874% on Monday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 4.048% jumped 8.3 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-43065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>10-year Treasury yield back above 4% on signs of tight U.S. labor market | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Two- through 30-year Treasury yields rose Tuesday morning, pushing the benchmark 10-year rate back above 4%, after U.S. data pointed to a still-strong\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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