{"id":4230,"date":"2023-05-04T15:52:08","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T19:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/kenvue-ipo-profitable-company-expensive-stock\/"},"modified":"2023-05-04T15:52:09","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T19:52:09","slug":"kenvue-ipo-profitable-company-expensive-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=4230","title":{"rendered":"Kenvue IPO: Profitable Company, Expensive Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Kenvue (KVUE), the consumer health spin-off from Johnson &amp; Johnson<fbs-ticker data-name=\"JNJ\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/johnson-johnson\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  JNJ<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, is expected to start trading May 4, 2023 at a ~$40 billion valuation. At the midpoint of its IPO price range, Kenvue earns a neutral rating. Note that most IPOs earn a unattractive or very unattractive rating.<\/p>\n<p>Kenvue has been profitable in each of the three years for which I have financial data. With some of the most well-known consumer brands in its stable, it will likely be profitable for many years to come. However, the company lacks the margins of its competitors, and a profitable company is not always a good stock. At its expected valuation, KVUE looks fully valued and does not provide investors with much upside potential, as I\u2019ll illustrate with my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model below.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Revenue and Profits Are High, If Not Always Rising<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>As a provider of some of the largest consumer health products in the world, Kenvue generated nearly $15 billion in revenue in 2022 and $2.3 billion in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT). In 2022, NOPAT was up 8% year-over-year (YoY) while revenue was down 1%, per Figure 1.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 1: Kenvue\u2019s Revenue &amp; NOPAT: 2020 \u2013 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Industry Has Many Tailwinds to Drive Steady Growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In its S-1, Kenvue notes that the consumer health market grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2019 to 2022, and management believes the market will continue to grow at a CAGR of 3 to 4% globally through 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Other industry analysts estimate the overall market could grow even faster \u2013 at a 7% CAGR through 2028. Either way, the growth in the overall industry is supported by long-term tailwinds, including but not limited to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>More health-conscious consumers.<\/li>\n<li>More preventative-care focused healthcare providers.<\/li>\n<li>More retailers recognizing the growth in consumer healthcare and emphasizing such products in stores.<\/li>\n<li>Aging population across the globe.<\/li>\n<li>A growing middle class in emerging markets, which will provide more financial flexibility to buy more consumer health products.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Product Line Is Impressive<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Kenvue refers to itself in its S-1 as \u201cthe world\u2019s largest pure-play consumer health company by revenue\u201d, and it\u2019s hard to contest that claim. Many of Kenvue\u2019s top 10 brands in 2022 (listed below) also hold the number one ranking in each respective market:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tylenol \u2013 #1 pain brand globally<\/li>\n<li>Nicorette \u2013 #1 smoking cessation brand globally<\/li>\n<li>Zyrtec \u2013 #1 allergy brand globally<\/li>\n<li>Motrin<\/li>\n<li>Neutrogena \u2013 #1 facial care brand in the U.S.<\/li>\n<li>Aveeno<\/li>\n<li>OGX \u2013 #1 premium hair care brand in the U.S.<\/li>\n<li>Listerine \u2013 #1 mouthwash brand globally<\/li>\n<li>Johnson\u2019s \u2013 #1 baby toiletries brand globally<\/li>\n<li>Band-Aid \u2013 #1 adhesive bandage brand globally<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>And Kenvue Is Geographically Diversified<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In 2022, Kenvue generated 55% of its revenue in regions outside of the United States. While the United States is still the largest market by revenue, Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) each represent 21% of revenue in 2022, per Figure 2. Such geographic diversity positions the company to grow strongly as consumers in emerging markets attain greater spending power.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 2: Kenvue Sales by Region: 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Competition Is Plentiful, and Kenvue is Less Profitable<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>There is no shortage of competition in the consumer health market, from industry stalwarts to startups and private labels in between. Given the breadth of Kenvue\u2019s product offerings, it faces competition from a multitude of firms. Kenvue categorizes it competitors in five different groups:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Consumer healthcare businesses, either independent or part of larger pharmaceutical groups<\/li>\n<li>Global consumer packaged goods companies<\/li>\n<li>Regional companies that operating in similar end markets<\/li>\n<li>Generic over-the-counter and private label brands<\/li>\n<li>Emerging niche-oriented brands with distribution through traditional retail or online direct to consumer.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>More specifically, Kenvue\u2019s competitors include the likes of Bayer Consumer health, Procter &amp; Gamble<fbs-ticker data-name=\"PG\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/procter-gamble\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  PG<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> , Sanofi Consumer Healthcare (SNY), L\u2019Or\u00e9al, Unilever<fbs-ticker data-name=\"UL\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/unilever\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  UL<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> , Colgate-Palmolive<fbs-ticker data-name=\"CL\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/colgate-palmolive\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  CL<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> , Kimberly Clark (KMB), and more.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately for investors, the company has not turned its high brand recognition into greater profitability. In fact, Kenvue\u2019s return on invested capital (ROIC) ranks nearly last among its competition. Only The Clorox Company<fbs-ticker data-name=\"CLX\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/clorox\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  CLX<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> has a lower ROIC of the companies in Figure 3.<\/p>\n<p>This low ROIC is driven by Kenvue\u2019s 0.5 invested capital turns ratio, a measure of balance sheet efficiency, and is tied for last amongst competitors in Figure 3.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 3: Kenvue\u2019s Profitability Vs. Competition: 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Valuation Implies Optimistic Profit Growth Rates<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>When I use my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to analyze the future cash flow expectations baked into KVUE, I find that shares, even at the midpoint, require optimistic assumptions about margins and growth, and look fully valued.<\/p>\n<p>To justify the midpoint of its IPO valuation, my model shows Kenvue would have to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>immediately improve NOPAT margin to 15.7% (3-year average, compared to 15.3% in 2022) through 2029 and<\/li>\n<li>grow revenue by 7% compounded annually (equal to the high end of industry projections through 2028) through 2029.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this scenario, Kenvue would earn $24.0 billion in revenue in 2029, or 1.6x its 2022 revenue, and $3.8 billion in NOPAT, or 1.3x its 2022 NOPAT. This scenario implies Kenvue grows NOPAT by 7% compounded annually through 2029. For reference, Kenvue\u2019s NOPAT has actually fallen 5% compounded annually since 2020. This scenario also implies Kenvue grows revenue at the industry growth rate, i.e. 7%, which is much higher than the 2% compound annual revenue growth rate Kenvue has achieved since 2020.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>16% Downside if Growth Matches Management Industry Projections<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>I present an additional DCF scenario to highlight the downside potential in the stock should Kenvue grow sales at management\u2019s expectation, which is lower than third-party estimates.<\/p>\n<p>If I assume Kenvue\u2019s:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NOPAT margin immediately improves to 15.7% through 2029 and<\/li>\n<li>revenue grows 4% compounded annually (high end of management\u2019s market estimate through 2025) through 2029, then<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>KVUE would be worth just $18\/share today \u2013 a 16% downside to the midpoint IPO price range. In this scenario, Kenvue\u2019s revenue would still grow to $19.7 billion in 2029, or 4% compounded annually. This scenario also implies the company would earn $3.1 billion in NOPAT and grow NOPAT 4% compounded annually through 2029. For reference, Kenvue\u2019s NOPAT has fallen 5% compounded annually since 2020. In other words, even if Kenvue improves margins and grows revenue at the high end of management\u2019s estimate, the stock is worth only $18\/share. For reference, Kenvue\u2019s economic book value, or no growth value, is $14\/share.<\/p>\n<p>Figure 4 compares Kenvue\u2019s implied future NOPAT in these scenarios to its historical NOPAT. For reference, I also include the TTM NOPATs for competitors Colgate-Palmolive and Kimberly Clark.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 4: Midpoint IPO Price Looks Fully Valued<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Red Flags for Investors<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Despite a less aggressive valuation relative to the IPOs of 2021 (with share prices that implied &gt;100% of market share), investors should be aware that Kenvue\u2019s S-1 also has some other red flags.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Public Shareholders Have No Rights<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson, after spinning off Kenvue, will continue to own 92% of the voting power in the newly formed company. This structure means that Johnson &amp; Johnson, not new shareholders, will be able to control the outcome of matters submitted to shareholders for approval.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, this IPO will take investors\u2019 money while giving them almost no voting power or control of corporate governance.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Talc-Related Legal Proceedings Are Still a Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>As noted in the company\u2019s S-1, a significant number of personal injury claims alleging that talc causes cancer have been made against Johnson &amp; Johnson prior to the formation of Kenvue. As part of the separation agreement, Johnson &amp; Johnson has agreed to indemnify Kenvue for \u201cTalc-Related Liabilities\u201d and any costs associated with resolving such claims. On April 4, 2023, Johnson &amp; Johnson agreed to pay $8.9 billion over 25 years to claimants in a proposed settlement that will require bankruptcy court approval.<\/p>\n<p>However, the S-1 also warns that Kenvue \u201ccannot assure that the indemnity from Johnson &amp; Johnson will be sufficient to protect us against the full amount of these liabilities or that Johnson &amp; Johnson will be able to fully satisfy its indemnification obligations\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The company also warns investors that it may continue to be subject to claims that fall outside of the previously indemnified Talc-Related Liabilities given that Kenvue still sells talc products in countries around the globe. The sale of these products will be discontinued in 2023, but the company still warns that litigation that isn\u2019t covered by the indemnity remains a possibility and could adversely impact the newly-formed business.<\/p>\n<p><em>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Italo Mendon\u00e7a receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/05\/04\/kenvue-ipo-profitable-company-expensive-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kenvue (KVUE), the consumer health spin-off from Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ , is expected to start trading May 4, 2023 at a ~$40 billion valuation. At the midpoint of its IPO price range, Kenvue earns a neutral rating. Note that most IPOs earn a unattractive or very unattractive rating. Kenvue has been profitable in each [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-4230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kenvue IPO: Profitable Company, Expensive Stock | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kenvue (KVUE), the consumer health spin-off from Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ , is expected to start trading May 4, 2023 at a ~$40 billion valuation. 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