{"id":40294,"date":"2023-07-25T13:09:11","date_gmt":"2023-07-25T17:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/generative-ai-views-of-mit-prof-and-goldman-cio-bode-well-for-microsoft\/"},"modified":"2023-07-25T13:09:13","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T17:09:13","slug":"generative-ai-views-of-mit-prof-and-goldman-cio-bode-well-for-microsoft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=40294","title":{"rendered":"Generative AI Views Of MIT Prof And Goldman CIO Bode Well For Microsoft"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Generative AI \u2014 the technology behind ChatGPT \u2014 is all the rage.<\/p>\n<p>Since late May, when it forecast expectations-beating revenue, chip designer, Nvidia\u2014 one of the biggest winners in the GAI brain rush \u2014 has added 47% to its market capitalization \u2014 which totaled nearly $1.1 trillion on July 24.<\/p>\n<p>With Microsoft<fbs-ticker data-name=\"MSFT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/microsoft\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  MSFT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> poised to report Q4 earnings July 25, is GAI a soon-to-fade fad or is it the next big thing? For answers, I interviewed experts including Danielle Li, MIT Sloan School professor and Marco Argenti, Goldman Sachs Chief Information Officer.<\/p>\n<p>Their answers suggest that GAI is on the rise \u2014 which bodes well for Microsoft\u2019s ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>While uncertain how it will evolve, they envision an optimistic scenario in which GAI saves people time, helps boost business productivity, and possibly enables companies to increase revenue while abiding by humanistic values.<\/p>\n<p>To become widely adopted, Li and Argenti agree GAI must create tangible business value, avoid violating social norms, and comply with an organization\u2019s policies and regulations.<\/p>\n<p>Argenti \u2014 who considers GAI an innovation as significant as the printing press \u2014 describes how Goldman is experimenting with many applications to find the ones most likely to add value over the long term.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman\u2019s process strikes a balance between widespread idea generation and effective investment aimed at achieving high \u201creturn on attention.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">High-Value Uses Of GAI Will Succeed And Spread<\/h2>\n<p>Argenti rates Large Language Models among history\u2019s most important innovations. As he told me in a July 20 interview, \u201cFrom what I\u2019ve seen, [LLMs] are the largest, most profound revolution in technology since the invention of the printing press. [LLMs] are a revolution in how we manage and deal with knowledge in a scalable way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>LLMs break two barriers that previously separated knowledge from people. As Argenti said, \u201cBefore the printing press, people needed to travel to be in physical proximity to books and be educated well enough to read and understand them. The printing press made it possible to copy books and spread them to libraries that were closer to people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While the printing press made books more physically available, they were no easier to understand \u2014 until LLMs \u2014 which \u201cbreak the comprehension barrier.\u201d As Argenti explained, \u201cThey explain something difficult in simpler terms. They put the reader and the writer at the same level. This doesn\u2019t just happen \u2014 it depends on how you ask questions. It works better if you break it down in steps.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>To succeed, GAI must pass the test of any successful business \u2014 it creates so much value for people they are willing to pay for it. As Li wrote in a July 17 email, GAI will be judged on the same basis as \u201cany business \u2014 whether it\u2019s contributing to a technology or product that people actually value. From the business side of it, [that means] a use that enables the company providing it to be paid in a sustainable way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Another important test is whether GAI applications offer unique value. \u201cIf you use (say) OpenAI tools to provide a product that anyone else with access to OpenAI tools can also build, you are really just a commodity service provider and won\u2019t stay in business long if you don\u2019t add something unique,\u201d noted Li.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, GAI will not succeed if it merely makes gauzy promises not grounded in reality. As she noted, \u201cOne can imagine thinking about socially valuable things like combating climate change.\u201d Business leaders should view appealing sounding buzz phrase \u2014 such as \u201cgenerative AI for sustainability\u201d with a skeptical eye to discern whether it will result in a \u201cconcrete\u201d solution.<\/p>\n<p>The most transformative GAI applications will do things that could not be done before. Many will begin their GAI journies by speeding up something they already do \u2014 such as \u201ccoding, making small talk, drawing something cute, or brainstorming by combining old ideas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yet Li sees the most potential value coming from using GAI to create \u201csomething we couldn&#8217;t have done before.\u201d In her view, GAI \u201cwill be used and normalized.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Goldman is focused on GAI applications that enables its professionals quickly to deliver clients the most insight. As Argenti said, \u201cWe are a digital business and aim to provide information that is pertinent for a context. Time is the most valuable currency. We aim to invest in GAI applications that provide a return on attention.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As he explained, such applications include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Helping developers write code<\/strong> \u2014 which \u201clowers the barriers to entry\u201d for developers to code using Java, Python, and Slang.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Instrumenting complex operations <\/strong>\u2014 for example, enabling a portfolio manager to \u201cquery a basket of stocks \u2014 applying criteria such as \u201ctechnology companies that will benefit from AI, are not exposed to China, and have diverse boards.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Empowering brokers talk to clients about market moving events.<\/strong> For example, when a market-moving event occurs, the application enables the broker to see how the event will change the value of a client\u2019s portfolio and provide a list of talking points the broker can use in conversing with each client.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Companies Must Invest To Build Effective GAI Applications<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman is actively testing use cases while making sure they are consistent with its governance standards \u2014 such as accuracy and intellectual property protection. Goldman enables \u201csafe experimentation before rolling out applications more broadly,\u201d Argenti said.<\/p>\n<p>While Goldman brainstorms hundreds of use cases, it invests resources in those that satisfy criteria such as:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Is GAI the right technology for solving this problem?<\/li>\n<li>Does the application help augment talent?<\/li>\n<li>Will the application have a long-term impact?<\/li>\n<li>Will iterative feedback make the application better?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The economic value of a generative AI chatbot can be significant. It can make call center people more efficient, provide a better customer experience, and spurring customers to return more frequently.<\/p>\n<p>As Li explained, \u201cA reasonable short term positive outcome might be that you handle calls faster and can divert more routine calls to the bot and save the time of your best human performers for more difficult tasks. A great scenario is that your customers are so pleased with these faster better interactions that they call more often and you have a way of doing customer discovery this way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Such positive outcomes are more likely if a company\u2019s culture puts a high value on happy employees and customers. The consequences of developing GAI applications with the opposite culture, are predictably bad.<\/p>\n<p>As Li noted, \u201cYou could train [the chatbot] poorly \u2014 then you lose customers who are frustrated or you end up facing huge liabilities. You could also adopt [GAI] in a way that alienates your best employees and leaves them looking for ways to leave. Then you have employees that want to leave and your bot is not good enough to actually replace them.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">GAI\u2019s Benefits Will Exceed Its Costs And Risks<\/h2>\n<p>Li envisions the benefits of GAI could contribute to significant economic growth, Whether its benefits exceed its costs depends, she said, \u201cOn circumstance and also policy and management decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Policies can shape whether GAI\u2019s benefits exceed its costs. As Li noted, \u201cOne can imagine various policies that both firms and regulators can take regarding how to address how AI is used as well as policies related to how profits from growth are redistributed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Another determinant of GAI\u2019s ultimate success depends on how job productivity is defined. As she wrote, \u201cGenerative AI learns on examples. If I provide a good example of how to interact with a worker, and the machine learns from that, do I get paid for it? The writer\u2019s strike in Hollywood right now relates to \u2018residuals\u2019 and I think the idea of residual value will become more important in other jobs as well.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How Companies Can Get Value From GAI<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman Sachs expects GAI\u2019s benefits to exceed its costs as long as the bank makes the right decisions. As Argenti said, \u201cIn theory, a company can spend hundreds of millions of dollars building a large language model. However, a company can get much more value by pursuing the right policies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These include using constitutional AI \u2014 which articulates an AI\u2019s goals and the values that bound how those goals are pursued. A company can train an AI with a combination of external searches and company specific data. \u201cYou don\u2019t need to build a fully pre-trained model\u2014 you can build your application on top. And you can engineer your prompts to gain better insights,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Implications For Microsoft Stock<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft \u2014 whose stock is up over 43% in 2023 \u2014 is expected to post 7% revenue growth for its fiscal fourth quarter to $55.5 billion, according to <em>Yahoo! Finance, <\/em>while adjusted earnings are forecast to rise to $2.55 \u2014up 14.3% from the year before.<\/p>\n<p>Microsoft could add $14 billion a year to its revenue from CoPilot \u2014 the software giant\u2019s ChatGPT-powered assistant for Microsoft Office products like PowerPoint, Word, and Excel. Macquarie Equity Research made this revenue estimate by assuming 10% of Microsoft\u2019s 382 million customers will pay CoPilot\u2019s $30 a month fee.<\/p>\n<p>If Li and Argento\u2019s optimism about GAI is right, the payoff from Microsoft\u2019s $10 billion investment in OpenAI could make its outlook very bright \u2014 boding well for those who own its stock.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/07\/25\/generative-ai-views-of-mit-prof-and-goldman-cio-bode-well-for-microsoft\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Generative AI \u2014 the technology behind ChatGPT \u2014 is all the rage. Since late May, when it forecast expectations-beating revenue, chip designer, Nvidia\u2014 one of the biggest winners in the GAI brain rush \u2014 has added 47% to its market capitalization \u2014 which totaled nearly $1.1 trillion on July 24. With Microsoft MSFT poised to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-40294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Generative AI Views Of MIT Prof And Goldman CIO Bode Well For Microsoft | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Generative AI \u2014 the technology behind ChatGPT \u2014 is all the rage. 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