{"id":38195,"date":"2023-07-20T10:57:37","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T14:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/endeavour-silver-a-production-growth-story-tsxedrca\/"},"modified":"2023-07-20T10:57:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-20T14:57:39","slug":"endeavour-silver-a-production-growth-story-tsxedrca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=38195","title":{"rendered":"Endeavour Silver: A Production Growth Story (TSX:EDR:CA)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Endeavour Silver (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:EXK<\/span>) is a production growth story with two large projects in their pipeline. Terronera is under construction, with production targeted for Q4 2024. Pitarrilla is several years away from production, but will become their focus in 2025. Parral<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> is their third potential development project that will likely add production.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">There are many interesting silver growth stories today. We have Avino, which will steadily add production over the next five years. Then there is GoGold, which has two mines to build at Los Ricos. Also, Discovery Silver, with its huge project. Bear Creek has Corani, which is construction-ready.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">All of these projects are in Mexico except Corani. In fact, all of Endeavour\u2019s properties are in Mexico. There are several things I like about Endeavour versus these other projects. First, I think they have the best management team in the group. They are very good<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> mine builders and operators. Plus, Terronera is already funded and under construction. That said, I\u2019m the type of investor that would own them all. I don\u2019t know which company will be the best performer. But I like the risk-reward the best with Endeavour.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The one thing I don\u2019t like is the long wait until Pitarrilla gets to production. It could easily be 4 years away. So, that\u2019s a long wait. But it is on my favorites list, and I consider it a must-own stock. Why? Because I know it will participate with higher silver prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I know from experience that I don\u2019t want to watch a silver mining stock scream higher with silver prices, and I don\u2019t own them. Been there, done that. It\u2019s no fun. There are certain silver miners that we know are going to participate. This is one of them. Why? Because there simply are not many quality pure silver plays out there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>One thing I always like to point out is that investing in PM miners is speculating<\/strong>. We are gambling since so many things can go wrong. Keep your allocations low and expect to lose money on some of your PM mining stocks. What we are really betting on is PM prices going higher. If silver prices rise, then Endeavour will be in a strong position. If silver prices languish, then bad things can happen.<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Stock Name<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Symbol (US)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Type<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Category<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Share Price (US)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>FD Shares<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>FD Mkt Cap (7\/19\/2023)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Endeavour Silver<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>EXK<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Silver<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Mid-Tier Producer<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$3.78<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>195M<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$737M<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Company Overview<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Endeavour Silver is a silver\/gold producer in Mexico. They have 2 high-grade silver\/gold producing mines, with expected production of 6 million oz in 2023. They have high cash costs ($10 per oz) and high all-in costs (free cash flow) around $22 per oz. But their next mine (Terronera) has low cash costs ($1 per oz) and will reduce their all-in costs significantly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>They have about $60 million in cash and $12 million in debt. I&#8217;m somewhat surprised that their share price has held up with their high costs. But investors like their growth potential, and they are one of the few pure silver\/gold miners with no base metals. Their next project (Terronera) will add 3 million oz of silver production in 2024 (Q4). All-in costs (break-even) are projected to be only about $8 per oz at Terronera. That will fix their high-cost problem and increase silver production by 50%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">They recently acquired the large Pitarrilla project from SSR Mining. This is a game-changer for the company. However, will take at least 4 years to develop a starter mine. It is a 500M oz silver deposit (about 150M oz silver underground), but is constrained by water issues. They have enough water to potentially produce 6-8 million oz a year (both open-pit and underground). They plan to focus on an underground mine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>In 2016, SSR Mining did a PFS for an underground mine at Pitarrilla to produce 6 million oz of silver. They also did a feasibility study in 2012 to produce 15 million oz of silver from an open pit. However, water issues forced them to abandon the open pit strategy. If Endeavour can find more water, this could be a huge mine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>I am only valuing Pitarrilla as a 150 million oz underground mine with 6 million oz of future production. This is a very conservative approach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>They also will develop Parral, which has a target of around 50 million oz. This could easily add an additional 2 million oz a year of silver production. This total is not included in my future valuation, since it is likely more than 5 years away.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>Strong silver producers like Endeavour could really fly if we have a mania in mining stocks because there are so few pure silver producers. Look for Endeavour to use their cash flow and exploration to grow production. The other wild card is growing production growth via an acquisition. Companies of this size are always looking for ways to grow. The one thing we don\u2019t want is for them to get swallowed up by a much larger company. Hopefully, that won\u2019t happen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>The main thing that could hurt them is sub $20 silver prices for an extended period. However, they can raise money from equity financing or use debt to survive. They can also put a mine on care and maintenance. Note that Terronera has low costs and can survive any silver price. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>I&#8217;m not that concerned about them surviving for the long term. I like the fact that management has kept their debt low. Plus, this is a company that should thrive with silver prices over $25. They plan to grow production to at least 15 million oz of silver. I consider them a growth stock. If I knew the timeline until production for Pitarrilla, I would be more excited about their long-term potential.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Pitarrilla Resource<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>M&amp;I: 491 million oz silver grading 96 gpt, 1.1 million lbs of lead grading 0.31%, 2.6 million lbs of zinc grading 0.74% for a total of 693 million oz silver AgEq grading 136 gpt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>Inferred: 99 million oz silver grading of 87 gpt, 281 million lbs of lead grading 0.36%, 661 million lbs of zinc grading 0.85% for a total of 151 million oz AgEq grading 132 gpt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>Total: 850M oz AGEQ at 134 gpt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span>Note: I\u2019m only including 150M oz of silver in my valuation due to water issues.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Company Info<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Cash: $61 Million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Debt: $12 million<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Current Silver Resources: 350 million oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Estimated Future Silver Reserves: 250 million oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Estimated Future Silver Production: 15 million oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Estimated Future Silver All-in Costs (breakeven): $25 per oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Estimated Future FCF Multiple: 10<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Scorecard (1 to 10)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Properties\/Projects: 8<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Costs\/Grade\/Economics: 7<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">People\/Management: 7.5<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Cash\/Debt: 7.5<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Location Risk: 6.5<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Risk-Reward: 7.5.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Upside Potential: 8<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Production Growth Potential\/Exploration: 8<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Overall Rating: 7.5<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Strengths\/Positives<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Production growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Significant upside potential.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Strong management.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Pure silver play.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Strong brand name.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Good balance sheet.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Risks\/Red Flags<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Long wait for Pitarrilla production.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Dependence on higher PM prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Location risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Could be acquired.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Speculation stock (high risk).<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Estimated Future Valuation ($75 silver)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Silver production estimate for the long term: 15 million oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Silver All-In Costs (break-even): $25 per oz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">15M oz. x ($75 &#8211; $25) = $750 million annual FCF (free cash flow).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">$750 million x 10 (FCF multiplier) = $7.5 billion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Current FD market cap: $737 million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Upside potential: 900%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Future Valuation Explained<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is an estimated return and will only occur if all assumptions are correct. A more likely outcome will be something less than this amount, although it is not crazy talk to expect silver to exceed $75 or the FCF multiple to reach 10.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">My All-In Costs are the expected costs that will generate FCF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I used a future FCF multiplier of 10, which I think is conservative for my expectations. I expect them to receive at least a 15 multiple.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I used a future PM price of $75 silver because I am a long-term investor who plans to wait for higher silver prices. I expect to see this level reached within 3-5 years. In fact, I use $100 silver for valuations on my website since that is my expected future price. I tone it down a bit to $75 on Seeking Alpha, which I think is more reasonable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It is my opinion that gold drives the silver price and that macroeconomics drives the gold price. The only reason I expect to see $100 silver is that I expect to see at least $3,000 in gold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A $75 or $100 silver price may seem like pie-in-the-sky fantasy, but silver traded at $49 in 2011 when gold was at $1,935. If gold rises 50% from its current level, there is a good chance that silver will rise 150%. This is usually what happens as the GSR gets squeezed. Of course, this is an assumption.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Balance Sheet\/Share Dilution<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">They currently have a strong balance sheet with $60 million in cash and only $12 million in long-term debt. However, large mines are expensive to develop. They may dilute shares to advance Pitarrilla. The capex for Pitarrilla will likely require debt, but that is a few years away.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Risk\/Reward<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As I mentioned at the beginning, <strong>investing in PM miners is speculating<\/strong>. Why? Because one of your assumptions is bound to get flipped. The biggest risk is that PM prices won&#8217;t rise, or inflation will cause costs to rise significantly, reducing expected margins. Many things can go wrong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">One thing that could go wrong is our expectation of margins. I\u2019m expecting large margins as silver prices rise, which will drive up their FCF. Several things could hinder large margins, one of which is Mexican politics. They could raise taxes or even do some type of nationalization, such as requiring partial government ownership of all silver mines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While the risk is high, the reward for Endeavour is enticing if silver prices rise substantially and they build Pitarrilla. We are betting on the future and on several assumptions, which is never a sure bet.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Investment Thesis<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I see Endeavour Silver as a potential slam dunk. Why? Because of my belief that silver prices are headed higher and that Endeavour is well-positioned to participate in that outcome. Sure, silver prices might not rise, but if they do, then Endeavour is where I want exposure for silver miners.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">By the end of 2024, they will increase their production to 9M oz of silver, with break-even costs per oz of around $20 (after Terronera lowers their costs). If silver is over $30, that will give them margins of around $10 per oz. Then as silver trends from $30 to $50, their margins will explode higher. If silver reaches $50 in 2025, their margins will be around $25 to $30 per oz. They will become a cash flow machine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Then in 2025, investors will begin to look at the potential of Pitarrilla, pushing their FCF multiple higher in anticipation of future production.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Strategy to Manage Risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/314355-16898115806929996.jpg\" alt=\"Investing Strategy\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>www.goldstockdata.com<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I use a pyramid approach (as discussed in my book) to manage risk, along with low allocations (normally less than 1% per individual stock), whereby I use less risky assets at the base of the pyramid and riskier stocks as I move up the pyramid.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As the shape of a pyramid implies, the bulk of my portfolio is on the lower half. This means that I hold fewer riskier stocks as a portion of my cost basis. Also, the base of the pyramid should be strong enough to withstand major corrections when the riskier stocks (exploration and development) higher up on the pyramid get obliterated (sometimes down 70% or more).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Endeavour fits in the lower half of the pyramid, where I accumulate quality mid-tier producers. Ironically, it is also a high-upside stock because of its production growth profile. In many respects, I think it is the ideal stock to own. Many are fortunate it is this cheap. I don\u2019t think it will be once silver reaches $30 to $32, when it will likely double in value.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I don&#8217;t trade. Instead, I use a buy-and-hold strategy of accumulating stocks (expanding my portfolio). Sometimes I think I am more of a stock collector than an investor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While I am constantly accumulating stocks (I currently hold over 150 stocks), I also have an exit strategy. In fact, I have an exit strategy for each stock. I often add to stocks that crash more than 50% if I still like the story, thereby reducing my cost basis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I rarely add to stocks that fall less than 50%, unless I think I am underweight on an exceptional stock. Moreover, I always buy big stock market corrections to improve my portfolio (this is usually the best time to buy).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I currently have a list of about 10 stocks that I want to buy on the coming correction. Of these 10 stocks, about half I already own. This will improve my portfolio.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4618398-endeavour-silver-a-production-growth-story?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK) is a production growth story with two large projects in their pipeline. Terronera is under construction, with production targeted for Q4 2024. Pitarrilla is several years away from production, but will become their focus in 2025. Parral is their third potential development project that will likely add production. There are many [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-38195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Endeavour Silver: A Production Growth Story (TSX:EDR:CA) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Introduction Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK) is a production growth story with two large projects in their pipeline. 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