{"id":35052,"date":"2023-07-13T07:27:52","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T11:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/can-u-s-steel-stock-return-to-pre-inflation-shock-highs\/"},"modified":"2023-07-13T07:27:54","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T11:27:54","slug":"can-u-s-steel-stock-return-to-pre-inflation-shock-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=35052","title":{"rendered":"Can U.S. Steel Stock Return To Pre-Inflation Shock Highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/x\/\">United States Steel stock<\/strong> currently trades at $24 per share, about 37% below its pre-inflation shock high of $38.50, seen in March 2022, and has the potential for some gains. U.S. Steel saw its stock trading at $18 in late June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing interest rates, and is now 35% above those levels, compared to the S&amp;P 500 which rose almost 17% over this period. The recent gains in the stock are driven by better-than-expected Q1 2023 results as well as a potential recovery in the company\u2019s European operations.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that U.S. Steel stock will have to gain over 59% from here. However, we do not believe that will materialize anytime soon and estimate <strong> <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/X\/no-login-required\/7rt34Rdh\/US-Steel-X-Valuation-Is-X-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230713\">United States Steel valuation<\/strong> to be around $27 per share, implying about 10% gains. While we expect the company to benefit from multiple trends such as rising U.S. infrastructure spending as well as greater government incentives for U.S. manufacturing, there are near-term macro headwinds due to high-interest rates which could weigh on steel demand and investments. Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/X\/no-login-required\/1LjuAMQA\/United-States-Steel-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-X-Stock-Has-59-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230713\">United States Steel upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022. It compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt supply.<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process.<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline.<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how X stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>X and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>X stock declined from $119 in September 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to around $20 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying the stock lost roughly 82% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $55 in early 2010, rising nearly 180% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>X Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>U.S. Steel revenues have declined from around $13 billion in 2019 to about $9.8 billion in 2021, as the company saw its volumes impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, business picked up strongly as Covid-19 lockdowns were eased, with revenue rising to about $20 billion in 2021 and to almost $21 billion in 2022 due to a surge in steel prices. Earnings per share improved from a net loss of about $6 per share in 2020 to a profit of close to $10 per share in 2022.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does X Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>X\u2019s total debt has declined from around $4.9 billion in 2020 to about $4 billion currently. The company garnered $3.5 billion in cash flows from operations in 2022, with its total cash position standing at about $2.8 billion as of the most recent quarter. This could imply that the company\u2019s financial position is relatively stable.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe X stock has the potential for some gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/RsQ6oXgC\/High-Quality-Portfolio-30-Stocks-with-189-Return-Since-2016-vs-88-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230713\">high-quality portfolio<\/strong> that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/07\/13\/can-us-steel-stock-return-to-pre-inflation-shock-highs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>United States Steel stock currently trades at $24 per share, about 37% below its pre-inflation shock high of $38.50, seen in March 2022, and has the potential for some gains. U.S. Steel saw its stock trading at $18 in late June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing interest rates, and is now 35% above [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-35052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Can U.S. Steel Stock Return To Pre-Inflation Shock Highs? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United States Steel stock currently trades at $24 per share, about 37% below its pre-inflation shock high of $38.50, seen in March 2022, and has the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=35052\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can U.S. Steel Stock Return To Pre-Inflation Shock Highs? 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