{"id":33696,"date":"2023-07-10T11:33:48","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T15:33:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/earnings-outlook-show-us-the-growth\/"},"modified":"2023-07-10T11:33:50","modified_gmt":"2023-07-10T15:33:50","slug":"earnings-outlook-show-us-the-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=33696","title":{"rendered":"Earnings Outlook: Show Us The Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/dwu7l6as21h3p.cloudfront.net\/MarketTakeEp99-655.720p.wide.mp4\" width=\"480\" height=\"270\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Transcript<\/h2>\n<p>We are coming into earnings season, and I\u2019m paying attention to three things.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1) Company margins<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The first is margins.<\/p>\n<p>So, if you look at the U.S. labor market, it\u2019s really, really tight. And my question is, as I look at this very<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> hot labor market, if the squeeze is not coming from the labor market, where is it going to come from? As companies hoard labor because of labor shortage, it\u2019s likely going to hit profitability and margins.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Now, margins in the U.S. have come down a fair bit versus the elevated levels last year, but it\u2019s still above the pre-pandemic levels. So how much more there is for margin to fall is the first area that I am paying attention to.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"><strong>2) Being selective<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The second is selectivity. Which sectors are likely to carry earnings? And this<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> is really in the context of the very meaningful rate repricing that we have seen in recent weeks. It\u2019s even more important to be selective when rates are staying higher for longer. And here there is a beautiful symmetry in what is carrying the U.S. stock market and also what is carrying the U.S. earnings picture. And again, here the mega tech and the AI theme have been proven resilient and likely going to continue to be resilient.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>3) Resilient U.S. consumers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And the third area that I am paying attention to is consumers. So the resilient consumers, U.S. consumers have been holding up the economy and also the earnings picture so far this year. But the pandemic buffer is wearing out and running down. Just how much more can we expect consumers to come to the rescue? That\u2019s another, the third, area that I am paying particular attention to.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">____________<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Bond yields have jumped, and we think markets are at a key juncture as central banks are poised to hold tight on policy. As Q2 results begin, corporate earnings need to deliver on market expectations to support stocks, in our view. We see a key divergence in earnings forecasts: They have risen for a few tech firms, while the rest stagnate. Profit margins are shrinking, and we see more pressure ahead. So we get granular and favor sectors like healthcare within developed market stocks.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Split earnings outlook<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/chart-of-the-week-20230710.svg.svg+xml\" alt=\"Split earnings outlook - The dark orange line that shows S&amp;P 500 earnings forecasts for the next 12 months has risen in recent months. The yellow line shows that after stripping out mega-cap tech stocks, forecasts are flat this year.\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">S&amp;P 500 Earnings 12 Months Ahead, January-June 2023 <span>(BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, July 2023)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Notes: The chart shows 12-month forward aggregate earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P 500 excluding mega cap names (the largest seven mega-cap stocks). The data has been rebased with January 2023 = 100. <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Q1 earnings growth was flat to slightly negative, Refinitiv and FactSet data show. That masks significant divergence: We see a common denominator between what\u2019s driving market performance this year and earnings &#8211; the artificial intelligence (AI) buzz. S&amp;P 500 earnings forecasts for the next 12 months have risen in recent months (dark orange line in the chart) along with the market rally driven by tech firms with the largest market capitalization. Stripping out those mega-cap tech stocks, forecasts are flat this year (yellow line). 2023 consensus estimates have been cut but remain well above our expectation. We expect Q2 data will be similar to Q1 as the reporting season kicks off this week, with a contraction hitting in the second half of 2023. We assess profit margins, shaped by earnings and revenues, for cracks, too. Margins jumped during the pandemic when consumer demand for goods was strong and companies could push up prices as input costs soared.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Margins have slid since last year as spending shifted back to services, but they remain above their pre-Covid highs. At the same time, data like Friday\u2019s U.S. jobs report reinforce how tight labor markets are in the U.S. and Europe. The key question right now, in our view: If rate hikes are not squeezing the labor market, where will the squeeze come from? Corporate profit margins, we believe, as wage gains and still-solid employment take a bigger toll on margins than in the past. Tight labor markets have caused employers to up wages to attract new hires. Broad worker shortages could incentivize companies to hold onto workers &#8211; even if sales decline &#8211; out of fear they won\u2019t be able to hire them back. This outlook poses the unusual possibility of \u201cfull employment recessions\u201d in the U.S. and Europe.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">High stakes for earnings<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Last week\u2019s surge in government bond yields put some pressure on equities &#8211; and highlights that companies will need to deliver on the market\u2019s earnings expectations as the Q2 reporting season gets underway to avoid more pressure. Resilient consumers have helped support earnings, but we see them exhausting the savings built up during the pandemic this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Yet, not all corporate sectors will suffer margin pressures in the same way, as is reflected in market pricing. We tilt toward certain sectors within a modest underweight to developed market equities on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon: divergences create opportunities depending on what\u2019s priced in. For example, technology and healthcare margins saw a boost during the pandemic. They could avoid the broad decline we expect as quality sectors that stand to benefit from mega forces, like AI and aging populations. These forces are driving profits now and in the future &#8211; and markets are reacting, as with this year\u2019s tech rally. Plus, we like healthcare\u2019s more attractive valuations and generally steady cash flow during economic downturns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We also like the industrial sector, particularly automakers, as they better price in future earnings risk while adding diversification and quality to our defensive portfolios. Automakers would also benefit if the downturns we expect do not occur and consumers stay strong. With a regional lens, we see the earnings improvement at European financials carrying on: Higher interest rates should boost their profit margins, and some are returning capital to investors via buybacks.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We see tight labor markets squeezing profit margins, and we think earnings will come under more pressure in the second half of the year. We think this macro environment is not a friendly one for broad asset class exposures. That\u2019s why we get granular within developed market stocks and identify our selective preferences across regions and sectors.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Market backdrop<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">U.S. 10-year Treasury yields approached 15-year highs above 4% and stocks dipped last week after U.S. jobs data showed a still-tight labor market. The unemployment rate fell lower, labor participation hasn\u2019t risen further, and wages are still growing even after the Fed\u2019s rapid rate hikes. We think the yield move and equity retreat signal we are at an important juncture: Markets are coming around to our view that central banks will be forced to keep policy tight to curb inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Stubbornly high U.S. CPI inflation data this week could bolster the recent bond yield surge as markets expect the Fed to hike rates this month after a June pause. The Bank of Canada hiked after a pause &#8211; and markets are leaning toward odds of another hike this week. We think central banks will be forced to keep policy tight to lean against inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4616097-earnings-outlook-growth?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Transcript We are coming into earnings season, and I\u2019m paying attention to three things. 1) Company margins The first is margins. So, if you look at the U.S. labor market, it\u2019s really, really tight. And my question is, as I look at this very hot labor market, if the squeeze is not coming from the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-33696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Earnings Outlook: Show Us The Growth | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transcript We are coming into earnings season, and I\u2019m paying attention to three things. 1) Company margins The first is margins. 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