{"id":33528,"date":"2023-07-10T04:22:03","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T08:22:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/sea-stock-this-is-the-time-to-make-a-big-splashy-bet-nysese\/"},"modified":"2023-07-10T04:22:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-10T08:22:07","slug":"sea-stock-this-is-the-time-to-make-a-big-splashy-bet-nysese","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=33528","title":{"rendered":"Sea Stock: This Is The Time To Make A Big Splashy Bet (NYSE:SE)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 hovering around 12-month highs despite macro jitters, a common question investors are asking is: is it too late to get in on the rally? For me, the answer is no, but the key is careful stock picking. I continue<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> to advise investors to go against the grain and buy out-of-favor tech stocks (as in, avoid the latest AI craze).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Sea (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:SE<\/span>), in particular, is an international tech giant that has fallen sharply out of favor recently. A one-time market darling, the so-called &#8220;Amazon of Southeast Asia&#8221; has seen a massive correction since May (despite most other tech stocks rallying sharply since then), giving back all of its year to date gains.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_9f34fe7e7893800a04fec149d44df9e2.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">In spite of risks, the Sea bull case remains vibrant<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Pessimism for Sea can be summed up by one<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> main driver: a sharp contraction in activity for Garena, the company&#8217;s gaming division. Sea&#8217;s video gaming business was a major highlight during the pandemic, when bored teenagers sunk millions into in-game purchases and the company&#8217;s ratio of paying users hit all-time highs. Now, not only are active users across the company&#8217;s games down, but the propensity to spend for in-game content is also waning.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">At the same time, the slowdown in gaming is being offset by huge growth in the company&#8217;s e-commerce arm, Shoppee. During the pandemic, I was largely bullish on Sea for one simple reason: losses in the fast-growing e-commerce division were effectively being subsidized by big profits in gaming. So now, even though we&#8217;re disappointed by the declining paid user trends in gaming, we&#8217;re also encouraged by the fact that Sea is no longer heavily dependent on gaming profitability now that e-commerce has scaled to profitability in its own right.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We also have to recognize that the gaming world is highly seasonal and fad-based. Sea&#8217;s <em>Free Fire <\/em>had its moment of glory, but the cast of popular online games is a rotating sphere (<em>League of Legends, <\/em><em>DOTA, Fortnite, Warcraft, <\/em>and others are constantly jockeying for position with users&#8217; limited time). In other words, soft trends now do not necessarily mean Garena will be in the hole forever.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">When we step back from near-term noise, here are what I believe to be the core components of the bull case for Sea:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Sea operates in the attractive &#8220;tiger economies&#8221; with secular multi-year growth tailwinds. <\/strong>Serving the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etcetera). Outside of its home country of Singapore, Sea benefits from rapidly modernizing infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. It&#8217;s not ludicrous comparing an investment in Sea to an early bet on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) in China.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Sea operates a conglomeration of attractive, profitable businesses. <\/strong>The company&#8217;s gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments business serve a wide net of customers, and are now each profitable in their own right &#8211; giving the company plenty of growth catalysts to capture more share in Southeast Asia. These subsidiaries, particularly the more nascent payments business, enjoy synergies and cross-sell opportunities with each other.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Incredibly well capitalized. <\/strong>Sea has more than $8 billion of cash and investments on its balance sheet (for sizing, that is approximately a year&#8217;s worth of opex for the company) to continue investing in growth and potentially acquire new platforms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From a valuation standpoint: at current share prices near $55, Sea trades at a market cap of $31.16 billion. After netting off the $8.15 billion of cash and $3.46 billion of convertible debt and borrowings on its most recent balance sheet, the company&#8217;s resulting <strong>enterprise value is $26.47 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Meanwhile, for fiscal year FY24, Wall Street consensus is expecting Sea to generate $15.27 billion in revenue, representing 15% y\/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Sea&#8217;s valuation at <strong>1.7x EV\/FY24 revenue. <\/strong>And if we conservatively assume that Sea&#8217;s 17% adjusted EBITDA margin in its most recent quarter holds into next year, Sea&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA in FY24 would be roughly $2.59 billion and its multiple clocks in at <strong>10.2x EV\/FY24 adjusted EBITDA. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I find it encouraging that Sea&#8217;s forward multiples are fairly closely in-line with Amazon (AMZN), despite the former&#8217;s more nascent growth potential:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_1617a77e98c069d2cb3dd45e47d12fc1.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>The bottom line here: <\/strong>it&#8217;s a great time to be bullish on Sea while the market is looking the other way.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Q1 download<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Let&#8217;s now go through the highlights of Sea&#8217;s most recent quarterly results, starting with the trends in the gaming division:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/33427965-16888696641359928.png\" alt=\"Sea gaming\" width=\"640\" height=\"322\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"322\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Sea gaming <span>(Sea Q1 earnings deck)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Bookings in the gaming division fell -15% sequentially and -44% y\/y to $462.3 million. Revenue of $539.7 million, meanwhile, fell -51% y\/y. <strong>The shortfall of bookings to revenue indicates that the company is &#8220;using up&#8221; deferred revenue balances<\/strong> (which in gaming represents in-game purchases that don&#8217;t get recognized as revenue until players actually consume the items) and that revenue deceleration is likely to continue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Quarterly active users grew 1% sequentially (adding ~6 million net-new players), but declined -20% y\/y. The biggest hit, however, was to the paid player ratio, which fell 130bps sequentially and 230bps y\/y to just 7.7%. This is lower than pandemic-era ratios in the 8-10% range, but in-line with early 2019 levels, indicating that the business isn&#8217;t necessarily collapsing &#8211; it&#8217;s just normalizing in a post-pandemic world where gamers are back to schools and offices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Forrest Li, the company&#8217;s CEO, noted on the Q1 earnings call that user engagement trends improved somewhat after the quarter closed in April:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>As previously shared, Garena, continued to focus on improving gameplay and creating a stronger community for our games first and foremost. While there was some weakening in monetization, mainly as a result of a lower paying user ratio, we saw some initial signs of improvement in our quarterly active user base, which increased from $485 million last quarter to $492 million in the first quarter.<\/p>\n<p>In April, we also observed positive user trends with Free Fire achieving a new peak in monthly active users in the last eight months period. While we are mindful of seasonality impacts, we&#8217;re pleased to see this as a positive sign for Free Fire, which remains one of the largest mobile games in the world. We will continue to monitor closely for trends going forward. As we strengthen our efforts in enhancing gameplay and user engagement, we have received positive responses from our user community on a number of initiatives we launched to make the game experience smoother.<\/p>\n<p>This initiative include game package size optimization and the gameplay like reduction with an emphasis on devices commonly used in our markets. Our users have indicated that these recent changes are highly responsive to their feedback and shared that they are enjoying a better gameplay experience as a result.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company is also planning a big new title release in the &#8220;next coming months&#8221;, an open-world survival game called <em>Undawn<\/em>, that may help to lift the gaming division&#8217;s fortunes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The big highlight in the quarter, of course, was e-commerce performance. Revenue grew 46% y\/y to $1.8 billion, while profitability improved from a prior-year loss of -$743 million to an adjusted EBITDA profit of $208 million:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/33427965-1688869675311267.png\" alt=\"Sea e-commerce\" width=\"640\" height=\"339\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"339\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Sea e-commerce <span>(Sea Q1 earnings deck)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Several highlights here include a sharp 77% reduction in contribution margin loss per order in the company&#8217;s expansion market of Brazil, as well as a widening of the company&#8217;s distribution network in Indonesia (a vast country of thousands of islands, and the bulk of Shopee&#8217;s customer base).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thanks to the turnaround in e-commerce profitability, total company adjusted EBITDA soared to $507.2 million, a 17% margin; versus a -$509.9 million loss, or a -18% margin, in the year-ago quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/33427965-16888696891571114.png\" alt=\"Sea company adjusted EBITDA\" width=\"640\" height=\"332\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"332\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Sea company adjusted EBITDA <span>(Sea Q1 earnings deck)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In my view, it&#8217;s far too early to sour on Sea. Improving gaming trends in April plus the hope from a new title launch, plus a massive turnaround in e-commerce profitability, are huge catalysts for a rebound here. If you haven&#8217;t invested in Sea until now, this is a great time to do so.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4616011-sea-this-is-the-time-to-make-a-big-splashy-bet?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the S&amp;P 500 hovering around 12-month highs despite macro jitters, a common question investors are asking is: is it too late to get in on the rally? For me, the answer is no, but the key is careful stock picking. I continue to advise investors to go against the grain and buy out-of-favor tech [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33529,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-33528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sea Stock: This Is The Time To Make A Big Splashy Bet (NYSE:SE) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the S&amp;P 500 hovering around 12-month highs despite macro jitters, a common question investors are asking is: is it too late to get in on the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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