{"id":32132,"date":"2023-07-06T08:38:14","date_gmt":"2023-07-06T12:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/will-southwest-airlines-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level\/"},"modified":"2023-07-06T08:38:16","modified_gmt":"2023-07-06T12:38:16","slug":"will-southwest-airlines-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=32132","title":{"rendered":"Will Southwest Airlines Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation-Shock Level?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/\">Southwest Airlines stock<\/strong> (NYSE: LUV) currently trades at $37 per share, more than 40% below its level in March 2021, and it can see higher levels over time. Southwest Airlines<fbs-ticker data-name=\"LUV\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/southwest-airlines\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  LUV<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, one of the largest players in the country\u2019s airline industry, saw its stock trading at around $36 in early June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is now 3% above that level, compared to 18% gains for the S&amp;P 500 during this period. The slight rise in the stock over recent months has been driven by a steady decline in the inflation rate in response to the Fed\u2019s aggressive rate hike plan \u2013 although investors still have concerns about a potential recession.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that LUV stock will have to gain more than 70% from here. However, we do not believe that will materialize any time soon, and estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/no-login-required\/W7HRq9ov\/Southwest-Airlines-LUV-Valuation-Is-LUV-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230706\">Southwest Airlines\u2019 valuation<\/strong> to be around $41 per share, implying over 10% gains. This is because the company has seen slower sales growth over the recent quarters than some of its peers, and its current operating margin of 2.1% is lower than 8.0% in 2021. With elevated fuel costs, the company may see slower earnings growth in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/no-login-required\/nmehlOiL\/Southwest-Airlines-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-LUV-Stock-Has-73-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230706\">Southwest Airlines\u2019 upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022. It compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt supply.<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process.<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline.<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how LUV stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>LUV and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>LUV stock declined from nearly $15 in September 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to below $6 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying it lost over 60% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $11 in early 2010, rising about 95% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>LUV Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/no-login-required\/xKLrHjCd\/Southwest-Airlines-Revenue?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230706\">Southwest Airlines\u2019 revenue<\/strong> fell sharply from $22.4 billion in 2019 to just $9.0 billion in 2020 as the Covid-19 outbreak hit the airline industry hard. Revenues improved gradually over 2021 before reaching $23.8 billion in 2022, with a recovery in travel demand. Southwest Airlines\u2019 revenue passenger miles surged 2.3x between 2020 and 2022, while passenger revenue per available seat mile rose 95% over this period.<\/p>\n<p>Despite higher revenue, earnings decreased from $4.28 in 2019 to $0.91 in 2022 due to higher fuel and other operating costs, weighing on its operating margin. Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/no-login-required\/XcgkqzaZ\/Southwest-Airlines-LUV-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230706\">Southwest Airlines Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboard has more details. LUV reported a $5.44 per share loss in 2020 when the pandemic severely impacted its financials.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does LUV Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Southwest Airlines\u2019 total debt increased from $2.7 billion in 2019 to $8.1 billion in 2022, while its total cash increased from around $4.1 billion to $12.3 billion over the same period. However, the rise in cash balance is primarily due to additional debt raised. The company also garnered $3.8 billion in cash flows from operations. Given that Southwest Airlines is net debt negative, it is in a comfortable position to meet its near-term obligations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiments, we believe Southwest Airlines stock has the potential for solid gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. That said, the pressure on the company\u2019s operating margin due to elevated fuel and other costs remains a significant risk factor to realizing these gains.<\/p>\n<p>While LUV stock may have some room for growth, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LUV\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Southwest Airlines\u2019 Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Despite higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, LUV stock has risen 10% this year. Can it drop from here? See how low Southwest Airlines stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/RsQ6oXgC\/High-Quality-Portfolio-30-Stocks-with-189-Return-Since-2016-vs-88-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230706\">high-quality portfolio<\/strong> that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/07\/06\/will-southwest-airlines-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Southwest Airlines stock (NYSE: LUV) currently trades at $37 per share, more than 40% below its level in March 2021, and it can see higher levels over time. Southwest Airlines LUV , one of the largest players in the country\u2019s airline industry, saw its stock trading at around $36 in early June 2022, just before [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-32132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Southwest Airlines Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation-Shock Level? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Southwest Airlines stock (NYSE: LUV) currently trades at $37 per share, more than 40% below its level in March 2021, and it can see higher levels over\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=32132\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Southwest Airlines Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation-Shock Level? 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