{"id":30756,"date":"2023-07-03T09:23:48","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T13:23:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/morgan-stanley-the-better-financial-dividend-stock-nysems\/"},"modified":"2023-07-03T09:23:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T13:23:51","slug":"morgan-stanley-the-better-financial-dividend-stock-nysems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=30756","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley: The Better Financial Dividend Stock (NYSE:MS)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Introduction<\/h2>\n<p>Ever since Silicon Valley Bank went bust, I have written a number of articles on what I believe to be attractive and undervalued banking stocks. Most of them were regional banks.<\/p>\n<p>While it&#8217;s fun to buy undervalued regional banks, they<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> have one major disadvantage: they tend to sell off violently whenever the economy takes a beating.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Hence, they are great buys during severe stock price declines but not great for consistent wealth compounding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">That&#8217;s where <strong>Morgan Stanley (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:MS<\/span>)<\/strong> comes in. This investment banking powerhouse comes with a juicy 3.6% dividend yield, a business model that&#8217;s not as dependent on lending as regional banks, and a track record of consistent outperformance with ambitious growth plans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">In this article, we&#8217;ll discuss all of this and more!<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Consistent Outperformance Thanks To A Great Business Model<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">I have never covered Morgan Stanley on<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> Seeking Alpha &#8211; or anywhere else.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, I have used its research, and I do like the output of its economists and market experts. I&#8217;m not paid to say this (I wish &#8211; just kidding), but I believe that MS has some of the best institutional research on Wall Street.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Before discussing any numbers, we see that MS shares have outperformed the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) by a wide margin over the past ten years &#8211; including reinvested dividends. MS has a 2.4% weighting in this ETF.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_d9484b69b03049c2de7f06c494402e6f.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">One reason for the outperformance is less dependence on loans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Morgan Stanley is an investment bank with a history that goes back to 1924.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Operating as a financial holding company, the company provides a wide range of services, including advising, originating, trading, managing, and distributing capital for governments, institutions, and individuals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In addition to its headquarters in New York City, the company has regional offices in the US and principal offices in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and other major financial centers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company has three key business segments:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Institutional Securities<\/li>\n<li>Wealth Management<\/li>\n<li>Investment Management.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As discussed during the recent Bernstein Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, the company has gone through four distinct phases to boost its footprint in wealth management.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Phase one was building scale through acquisitions.<\/li>\n<li>The second phase involved leveraging technology to support advisors and become a technology and innovation leader.<\/li>\n<li>In the third phase, new client segments were targeted, including the acquisitions of Solium and E*Trade, which expanded their reach in the workplace channel and provided a direct digital platform.<\/li>\n<li>Now in Phase 4, the focus is on deepening relationships and converting them into advisory clients over time. The goal is to target virtually every segment within the $50 trillion wealth management asset pool.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As the overview below shows, the company&#8217;s acquisitions have all been focused on wealth management. Divestitures were focused on getting rid of everything that didn&#8217;t go well with its core business.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-16883166281741943.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">One of its divestitures is MSCI (MSCI), a business I like a lot. I covered it in this article.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Morgan Stanley believes that it reinvented the wealth management business model, integrating multiple channels and capabilities to meet clients&#8217; needs and engage with them across various channels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While some of these factors are hard to define, the company isn&#8217;t lying. It&#8217;s the largest wealth management company and a top-3 institutional securities firm.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-16883192539931123.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A big driver of growth is its ecosystem, which integrates channels and capabilities. According to the company, the integration allows for efficient and effective coordination of processes, data, and analytics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For example, referring a workplace stock plan participant to an advisor involves a complex process that requires data gathering, analytics, education, customization, and seamless handover to the advisor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With that said, the ecosystem also combines advanced machine learning tools with coordination across multiple data systems and vendors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this case, machine learning is artificial intelligence, which could be a big driver of profitability &#8211; although it needs to be seen how effective AI can become in the future.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-16883194689216425.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As reported by CNBC in March, the company is introducing an advanced chatbot powered by OpenAI&#8217;s latest technology to assist its financial advisors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The bank has been testing the artificial intelligence tool with 300 advisors and plans to implement it widely in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The tool, which is based on GPT 4, aims to help the bank&#8217;s 16,000 advisors leverage the firm&#8217;s aforementioned research and data repository. It generates responses based on the 100,000 research pieces vetted by Morgan Stanley, reducing the risk of errors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Not only is this an easy way to make processes more efficient, but I also believe this perfectly shows how companies with loads of proprietary data can implement artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Speaking of profitability, the company has consistently grown its pre-tax profits. In the years after the Great Financial Crisis, the company generated less than $2 billion in pre-tax profit. After the pandemic, that number soared to more than $6 billion. Also, note that the chart below goes well with the aforementioned 4-phase growth plan.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-16883206769952784.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Having said that, during the Bernstein conference, Morgan Stanley made clear that it believes that its strongest period of growth is still ahead.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">By increasing the number of client relationships, deepening those relationships, and expanding assets and pre-tax profits, the company aims to reach $10 trillion in total client assets, with wealth management contributing around $8 trillion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Essentially, that&#8217;s how the company accelerated growth after 2018.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to the company, this growth could lead to a more than doubling of pre-tax profits. Organic growth, shifting client assets from cash to fee-based investments, and additional lending opportunities are the key drivers of this growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The focus remains on deepening client relationships and leveraging the scalability of the existing infrastructure to achieve sustainable growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Between 2019 and 2022, the company added roughly 15 million core client relationships. The assets held by these clients rose from $2.5 trillion to more than $10 trillion.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-1688320919112784.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The good news continues, as investors have always been treated well by the company, which brings me to the next part of this article.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Dividends &amp; Buybacks<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Morgan Stanley has a 3.6% dividend yield. This is backed by a 51% payout ratio.<\/li>\n<li>Over the past five years, the average annual dividend growth rate was 25.4%.<\/li>\n<li>Over the past ten years, that number was 31.5%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since the end of the Great Financial Crisis, the dividend has been well-covered. However, during the GFC, the company was forced to cut its dividend, which was the case for almost all major financial firms back then.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_aed514d568c007a79a34e0974abd9ec9.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is what the company said during the first-quarter earnings call:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>We\u2019ve had a very healthy dividend yield. I think it\u2019s over 3.5% churn, something like that now. We believe in the dividend. I\u2019ve said for years, and I think of the wealth management business is a dividend stock, and we\u2019re clearly making more money in that business than we\u2019re paying out a dividend.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Speaking of that earnings call, let&#8217;s dive a bit into current developments, especially in light of (fading) banking woes.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Recent Events &amp; Valuation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The first quarter was quite successful, as the company reported revenues of $14.5 billion, EPS of $1.70, and an ROTCE (return on tangible common equity) of 16.9%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_bacceb4d2c7f681f32c0b57ae7542809.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What&#8217;s interesting is that Morgan Stanley does not believe that we are dealing with a banking crisis. Strong regulatory intervention in both the United States and Europe played a crucial role in containing the damage, according to MS.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company also emphasized that the current situation is incomparable to the 2008 financial crisis. In this case, Morgan <span id=\"jS$1248\" class=\"j3\">Stanley<\/span> contributed to solving market stress by providing an uninsured deposit line of $30 billion to First Republic Bank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Morgan Stanley believes that the company has gone from being a part of the problem (in 2008) to being a part of the solution (2023).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Wealth Management division saw positive asset flows of $110 billion, indicating continued growth in the model and the flight to quality. These results contribute to the firm&#8217;s goal of achieving $1 trillion in asset flows every three years. The results also underline the aforementioned growth plans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The balance sheet remained largely unchanged (and healthy), with spot assets at $1.2 trillion, a standardized CET1 ratio of 15.1%, and a supplementary leverage ratio of 5.5%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/31557165-16883231590803626.png\" alt=\"Image\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morgan Stanley<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Going forward, the company believes that markets are difficult to predict. I agree with that. Hence, the bank is mainly focusing on the aforementioned growth plans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With that said, MS is trading at 1.55x its book value and 2.1x its tangible book value. The valuation has consistently risen as investors believe that the company&#8217;s growth measures deserve a higher multiple. I agree with that.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/saupload_bc164fb708cb45e3b9cda7aec1522665.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, even using next year&#8217;s expected book value (per share) of $58.50, we&#8217;re dealing with a 1.5x multiple, which isn&#8217;t cheap.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The current consensus price target is $96, which is 13% above the current price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I agree with that fair value, although I cannot make the case that MS is a must-buy at current prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As much as I like the company&#8217;s progress and ability to deliver long-term shareholder value, I would like to buy this one for close to $75 (or lower).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While this comes with the risks of missing more upside, I&#8217;m willing to take that risk, as I&#8217;m not extremely eager to buy more financials and because I believe that we&#8217;re not out of the woods yet. The market is now at the upper bound of my expected trading range, which has caused me to become a bit more careful.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Hence, my rating, for now, is neutral.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Additionally, I&#8217;m now mainly focused on buying compounders with even more growth potential, like MSCI.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Needless to say, people are free to disagree with my strategy. The main takeaway here is that I believe that MS is one of the best dividend growth stocks in the financial sector.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Takeaway<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Morgan Stanley is a fantastic dividend growth stock in the financial sector, boasting a robust business model and impressive growth potential. Unlike regional banks, MS is less prone to economic downturns due to its diversified revenue streams. With a history dating back to 1924, the investment banking powerhouse has consistently outperformed the Financials Select Sector SPDR ETF, which underlines its ability to thrive in various market conditions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A big part of MS&#8217;s success is its innovative ecosystem that integrates multiple channels and capabilities, enabling efficient coordination of processes and leveraging advanced machine learning tools. Moreover, the company&#8217;s focus on deepening client relationships and expanding assets and pre-tax profits is driving significant growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While the stock&#8217;s valuation has risen, indicating investor confidence in MS&#8217;s growth prospects, it may be prudent to wait for a better entry point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Nevertheless, MS remains a top contender for those seeking consistent wealth compounding and a solid dividend yield.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4614932-morgan-stanley-the-better-financial-dividend-stock?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction Ever since Silicon Valley Bank went bust, I have written a number of articles on what I believe to be attractive and undervalued banking stocks. Most of them were regional banks. While it&#8217;s fun to buy undervalued regional banks, they have one major disadvantage: they tend to sell off violently whenever the economy takes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-30756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Morgan Stanley: The Better Financial Dividend Stock (NYSE:MS) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Introduction Ever since Silicon Valley Bank went bust, I have written a number of articles on what I believe to be attractive and undervalued banking\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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