{"id":30472,"date":"2023-07-02T12:38:38","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T16:38:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/recession-canceled-u-s-stock-market-pretty-frothy-after-sp-500s-strongest-first-half-since-2019\/"},"modified":"2023-07-02T12:38:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T16:38:39","slug":"recession-canceled-u-s-stock-market-pretty-frothy-after-sp-500s-strongest-first-half-since-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=30472","title":{"rendered":"Recession canceled? U.S. stock market \u2018pretty frothy\u2019 after S&P 500\u2019s strongest first half since 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 index just wrapped up its strongest first half of a year since 2019, as a U.S. recession feared near by many investors seems perpetually further away than anticipated, leaving the stock market rally\u2019s momentum for the rest of 2023 in question.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s \u201cdifficult to gauge\u201d when the \u201cliquidity unleashed\u201d by the U.S. government during the pandemic will run out, said Jos\u00e9 Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview, referring to fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2020-2021. While the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2022 to battle high inflation, the Fed\u2019s intervention after regional-bank failures in March provided more liquidity to the financial system, he said.<\/p>\n

\n

That \u201ccreated this environment for risk assets to run higher,\u201d said Torres. And then, the artificial-intelligence craze has more recently driven \u201cmomentum\u201d in U.S. stocks, he said. \u201cI think the market goes lower from here.\u201d<\/p>\n

The S&P 500
\n SPX,
\n +1.23%<\/bg-quote>
\n in mid-March was trading near its starting level in 2023, as regional-bank woes weighed on stocks before the Fed\u2019s intervention that month. The central bank\u2019s bank term funding program, announced March 12, helped shore up confidence in the banking system, taking off \u201ca lot of pressure on financial conditions,\u201d according to Torres.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 rose 15.9% in the first six months of 2023 for its strongest first-half of a year since 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Each of the index\u2019s 11 sectors climbed in June, marking the first time since November that all of them were up in the same month.<\/p>\n

The U.S. economy has been resilient despite the Fed\u2019s rapid interest rate hikes in 2022 to cool demand and bring down still high inflation. Investors appear to be shrugging off recession worries after some surprisingly strong economic data in recent days.<\/p>\n

\u201cLadies and Gentleman, the recession has been cancelled!\u201d wrote Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, in a note emailed June 29.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cLet\u2019s not forget that despite the economy\u2019s impressive performance the first three months, prices have continued to ease as well,\u201d Baumohl said in the note. \u201cVirtually every inflation metric has been falling,\u201d he said, so \u201cunless inflation shows signs of reversing course and accelerates, the Fed should maintain its current pause.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Fed has slowed its interest-rate hikes this year, pausing them at its June policy meeting while signaling that further rate increases may still be coming. Federal-funds futures on Friday showed traders largely expecting the Fed to lift its benchmark rate by a quarter point in July to a targeted range of 5.25% to 5.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, at last check.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Investors have cheered the Fed\u2019s pause, with many expecting it\u2019s near the end of its rate-hiking cycle, which had led to brutal losses for stocks and bonds last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, economic data released in the past week showed a revised estimate for U.S. growth in the first quarter was higher than anticipated; new orders for manufactured durable goods were stronger than expected in May; sales of newly built homes that same month beat economists\u2019 forecasts; consumer confidence jumped in June to a 17-month high based on a Conference Board survey; and that initial jobless claims in the week ending June 24 fell.<\/p>\n

See also: <\/strong>U.S. economy on track to grow as fast as 2% in the second quarter<\/p>\n

Investors also welcomed more evidence of inflation easing. U.S. inflation measured by the personal-consumption-expenditures price index softened to 3.8% in May on a 12-month basis, the slowest increase since April 2021, based on a government report Friday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But Torres said he worries the U.S. economy may be growing too fast for the Fed\u2019s fight with inflation, potentially leading the central bank to become more hawkish by further tightening monetary policy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018Shocked\u2019<\/h4>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a huge discrepancy\u201d between two-year Treasury yields
\n TMUBMUSD02Y,
\n 4.895%<\/bg-quote>
\n and where the Fed has indicated its benchmark rate may wind up at the end of its hiking cycle, he said. That\u2019s after the recent rise in two-year yields from the wake of their fall during the regional-banking stress.<\/p>\n

The Fed\u2019s summary of economic projections, released in June, showed its policy rate could wind up as high as 5.6% by the end of this year, compared to a current targeted range of 5% to 5.25%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year Treasury note rose 81.7 basis points in the second quarter to 4.877% on Friday, the highest level since March 9 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve been shocked the market has already been able to digest this yield move to the upside,\u201d said Torres. \u201cThere\u2019s still more room to the upside on yields,\u201d he said, adding that two-year Treasury rates often are viewed as a gauge of how hawkish the Fed may be with its policy rate.<\/p>\n

The U.S. stock market rose on Friday, closing out June with weekly, monthly and quarterly gains.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite
\n COMP,
\n +1.45%<\/bg-quote>
\n each finished the month at its highest closing level since April 2022, with both indexes notching their longest monthly win streaks since 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The technology-heavy Nasdaq soared 31.7% during the first six months of 2023, clinching its best first half since 1983.<\/p>\n

Sentiment in the stock market has gotten \u201cpretty frothy,\u201d making equities vulnerable to a decline, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in a phone interview. \u201cOn the surface the market has been incredibly resilient, but of course the concentration has been extreme.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

She pointed to a \u201csmall handful\u201d of megacap stocks, including names like Apple Inc.
\n AAPL,
\n +2.31%<\/bg-quote>
\n Microsoft Corp.
\n MSFT,
\n +1.64%<\/bg-quote>
\n and Nvidia Corp.
\n NVDA,
\n +3.63%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n powering the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.<\/p>\n

Read:<\/strong> Apple clinches $3 trillion valuation, becoming first U.S. company to close at that mark<\/p>\n

Such stocks \u201creally kicked into high gear\u201d at the start of the banking trouble in March, as investors, in a defensive move, sought companies that are \u201chighly liquid\u201d and generate cash, she said. <\/p>\n

Stocks in that megacap group, sometimes referred to as Big Tech although they span sectors including communication services and consumer discretionary as well as information technology, have also benefited from AI exposure, said Sonders.<\/p>\n

Weakness, strength on the roll<\/h4>\n

Sonders said she sees the U.S. as having experienced \u201crolling\u201d recessions in different segments \u2013 such as housing or manufacturing \u2013 as opposed to the entire economy being swept up in a full-blown downturn. \u201cThe recession versus no recession debate\u201d is missing the current nuances of this cycle, in her view.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen weakness and strength rolling through the economy as opposed to everything either booming at the same time, or falling apart at the same time,\u201d she said. So while cracks may turn up in the services sector, the U.S. could still benefit from other areas, such as the recent lift seen in the housing market, which already has gone through a recession, according to Sonders.<\/p>\n

Read:<\/strong> Homebuilder ETF outperforms S&P 500, industry\u2019s stocks still \u2018cheap\u2019 in 2023 market rally<\/p>\n

In the stock market, megacap names have gotten a lot of attention for their surge this year, yet other pockets, such as homebuilders and the S&P 500\u2019s industrials sector, have recently done well, she said. Industrial stocks
\n SP500EW.20,
\n +0.92%<\/bg-quote>
\n recently stood out to Sonders for their \u201cdecent breadth.\u201d<\/p>\n

But to her thinking, \u201cthis is not the kind of environment to make a monolithic sector call or two,\u201d rather Sonders favors screening stocks for characteristics such as \u201chigh quality\u201d when looking for investment opportunities.<\/p>\n

Fluctuating financial conditions have made it harder to discern when the U.S. could fall into a recession, according to Torres. But rates rising further poses the risk of returning to the kind of environment that created stress for regional banks, he said. And with \u201ccommercial real estate lurking in the background\u201d as a concern, he said it\u2019s tough to see the stock market climbing from the S&P 500\u2019s already \u201crich\u201d levels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe higher the Fed pushes rates, the more pressure that\u2019s gonna put on bank balance sheets,\u201d said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a phone interview. \u201cIt just becomes a question of whether or not you\u2019re going to see a run on a particular bank.\u201d<\/p>\n

This coming week, the Fed will release minutes from its June policy meeting. Investors will see them on Wednesday, the day after the July 4 holiday in the U.S.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While the S&P 500 has rallied in 2023, shares of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
\n KRE,
\n -1.14%<\/bg-quote>
\n sank 30.5% in the first half of the year while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF
\n KBWB,
\n +0.24%<\/bg-quote>
\n is down 20.5% over the same period, according to FactSet data.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a lot of dispersion within the market,\u201d said Ripley. \u201cThere are pockets that are doing better than others.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 index just wrapped up its strongest first half of a year since 2019, as a U.S. recession feared near by many investors seems perpetually further away than anticipated, leaving the stock market rally\u2019s momentum for the rest of 2023 in question. It\u2019s \u201cdifficult to gauge\u201d when the \u201cliquidity unleashed\u201d by the U.S. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30473,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-30472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nRecession canceled? 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