{"id":29450,"date":"2023-06-30T01:03:02","date_gmt":"2023-06-30T05:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/burdened-by-the-facts-stock-market-and-sentiment-results\/"},"modified":"2023-06-30T01:03:07","modified_gmt":"2023-06-30T05:03:07","slug":"burdened-by-the-facts-stock-market-and-sentiment-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=29450","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Burdened By The Facts&#8217; Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Second Half Playbook<\/h2>\n<p>On Friday, I joined Seana Smith on Yahoo! Finance where I discussed the playbook for the next 6 months:<\/p>\n<p><figure class=\"sa-widget sa-embed\" data-id=\"24059\" data-provider=\"Vimeo\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/embed\/24059\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"sa-embed-iframe embed-responsive-item\" data-original-width=\"640\" data-original-height=\"360\" data-id=\"24059\" data-provider=\"Vimeo\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>This chart ties in one of the key points I made above:<\/p>\n<p><figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_sm.png\" alt=\"Trailing returns for Russell 2000\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Carl Quintanilla<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>The purpose of<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> the following charts and tables is to remind skeptics that the data continues to come in better than expected. While the back half of the year returns for the indices may be more muted than the first half, there is still significant opportunity. However, the most money will be made &#8220;under the surface&#8221; with dozens of individual laggards that can be up 20, 30, 50 and even 100%+ in 2H.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Positioning<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Commercials still long, Hedge Funds still short the whole way up! We continue to follow the commercials and ignore the large managers who told you to sell at the October lows.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_cot.png\" alt=\"Positioning\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Finviz<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_pos-1.png\" alt=\"Equity Allocation\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Sentiment<\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_profit-exp.png\" alt=\"Profit Expectations\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_bull-bear.png\" alt=\"Bull\/Bear Indicator\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_cc-4.png\" alt=\"Consumer Confidence\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Investing.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_dep.jpeg\" alt=\"Deposit levels by generation\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Yardeni.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Money Supply<\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_m2sg-1.png\" alt=\"Money Supply\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seth Golden<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_m2-1_thumb1.png\" alt=\"Money Supply\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">fred.stlouisfed.org<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_ms3.png\" alt=\"Money supply\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seth Golden<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Earnings Expectations<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Earnings:<\/strong> Set up going into Q2 earnings season the same as going into Q1.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-For Q2, the estimated earnings decline for the S&amp;P 500 is -6.5%<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-Q1 had a similar set-up and wound up at -2%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-Everyone has been calling for a 20% earnings decline since October. Instead, we got a 25% rally in the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-What now? 2024 estimates are going UP in recent weeks to ~$247.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_eps.png\" alt=\"Bottom Up EPS\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">FactSet<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Analysts playing &#8220;catch up&#8221; on buy ratings:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_catch-up.png\" alt=\"Buy Ratings\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">FactSet<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Economic Data<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_pmi_thumb1.png\" alt=\"Composite Output\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">S&amp;P Global PMI<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_capital-goods.jpeg\" alt=\"Capital Goods Orders and Shipments\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Yardeni.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_avg-inf.png\" alt=\"Inflation data\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seth Golden<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_esi.jpeg\" alt=\"US Surprise Index\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_fms.png\" alt=\"Inflation expectations\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_new-homes.jpeg\" alt=\"New Home Sales\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Seasonality<\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_seas.png\" alt=\"July Gains\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Ryan Detrick<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_nasdaq-signal.png\" alt=\"Buy signals\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seth Golden<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_asc-1.jpeg\" alt=\"S&amp;P Presidential Election Cycle\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">All Star Charts<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">UK<\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_UK.png\" alt=\"UK Stocks\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Banks<\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_Banks.png\" alt=\"Bank Stocks\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BofA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Now onto the shorter term view for the General Market:<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this week&#8217;s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent ticked down to 41.9% from 42.9% the previous week. Bearish Percent flat-lined at 27.5% from 27.8%. The retail investor is still optimistic. This can stay elevated for some time based on positioning coming into these levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_aaii-3.png\" alt=\"Survey Data\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">AAII.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_aaiibull.png\" alt=\"!AAIIBULL\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Stockcharts.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The CNN &#8220;Fear and Greed&#8221; flat-lined from 79 last week to 79 this week. Sentiment is hot but it would not surprise me if it stays pinned for a bit to force people out of their bunkers and back into the market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_f1.png\" alt=\"Fear\/Greed\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">CNN<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_fg2-2.png\" alt=\"Fear\/Greed\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">MacroMicro.me<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And finally, the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) ticked up to 83.60% this week from 81.66% equity exposure last week. Managers have been chasing the rally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/saupload_n-6.png\" alt=\"!NAAIM\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Stockcharts.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">*Opinion, not advice. See &#8220;terms&#8221; at hedgefundtips.com.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4614529-burdened-by-the-facts-stock-market-and-sentiment-results?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Second Half Playbook On Friday, I joined Seana Smith on Yahoo! Finance where I discussed the playbook for the next 6 months: This chart ties in one of the key points I made above: Carl Quintanilla The purpose of the following charts and tables is to remind skeptics that the data continues to come in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29451,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-29450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&#039;Burdened By The Facts&#039; Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)... | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Second Half Playbook On Friday, I joined Seana Smith on Yahoo! 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