{"id":27604,"date":"2023-06-26T10:10:18","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T14:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/u-s-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-downgrades-recession-risk-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods-yet\/"},"modified":"2023-06-26T10:10:19","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T14:10:19","slug":"u-s-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-downgrades-recession-risk-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=27604","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Downgrades Recession Risk, But We\u2019re Not Out Of The Woods Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview the U.S. recession risk is downgraded<\/li>\n<li>Yellen also commented consumer spending still a risk; core CPI in May shows underlying inflation pressures still sticky<\/li>\n<li>The U.S. is faring better than Europe and the U.K. on inflation, while China\u2019s economy shows sluggish growth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The U.S. economy might be past the worst of its inflation woes, the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted last week. Janet Yellen, who you may recognize as a key figure from the debt-ceiling crisis, said the Fed\u2019s crusade on inflation via raised interest rates seemed to be working &#8211; but resilient consumer spending could still be a risk factor. There\u2019s a delicate dance afoot, but the U.S. gets the gold star compared to other major economies. Let\u2019s get into it.<\/p>\n<p><em>Inflation has probably been the word of 2023, and bringing it to heel is still the Fed\u2019s main concern. But you can actually harness sticky inflation to your advantage with Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em>. It uses AI to suss out which inflation-busting assets could perform well each week to help you build wealth against the uncertain economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What did Janet Yellen say?<\/h2>\n<p>Speaking to Bloomberg News at a conference in Paris, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she thought the risk of a recession in the U.S. has come down thanks to the work the Fed has been doing with monetary tightening, which has caused a financial squeeze for households and businesses.<\/p>\n<p>Yellen pointed out the \u201cresilience of the labor market, and inflation is coming down\u201d but warned caution against any early victory celebrations. \u201cI\u2019m not going to say it\u2019s not a risk, because the Fed is tightening policy,\u201d she said; the Fed is largely expected to introduce more rate hikes after hawkish comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell at the June meeting.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInflation has really come down a lot \u2014 and there\u2019s more in the pipeline,\u201d Yellen said in an ominous reminder that it\u2019s too early to celebrate yet. Yellen\u2019s comments and Powell\u2019s congressional testimony last week weren\u2019t enough to lift spirits on Wall Street: the S&amp;P 500 futures declined by 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7% and the Dow Jones futures closed 0.4% lower.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How is the U.S. economy faring?<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the overwhelming caution from Yellen and Powell, things are brightening for the U.S. economy. The Fed\u2019s crusade against inflation took interest rates from 0.1% in 2021 to a guidance of 5% to 5.25% &#8211; a massive increase in a relatively short amount of time that would always cause some financial pain.<\/p>\n<p>May\u2019s headline inflation came in at 4%, lower than the 4.1% expected and a large decrease from the 4.9% figure we saw in April. Inflation peaked at 9.1% last summer.<\/p>\n<p>The jobs market has also shown remarkable resilience given the interest rate hikes. In May, the US jobs growth was almost double the predicted strength, with 339,000 non-farm payrolls added to the economy compared to the anticipated 195,000. Crucially, wage growth also ticked downwards; month-on-month wage growth fell to 0.3%, bringing the annual basis to 4.3% and avoiding the dreaded inflation-wages spiral.<\/p>\n<p>Housing has also bounced back. Housing starts, a measure of new homes construction, hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million in May, beating Wall Street\u2019s forecasts of 1.4 million. Home sales in May were down 20% compared to last year, but house prices have stayed relatively stable across the national index due to low inventory.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What are the risk factors?<\/h2>\n<p>During the interview, Yellen said spending was an issue and that \u201cWe probably need to see some slowdown in spending in order to get inflation under control\u201d. The latest U.S. CPI report saw core inflation at 5.3% in May, down from 5.5% in April; shelter and used cars and trucks were the two biggest contributors to increases, while the food index increased by 0.2%. All of this suggests that core inflation is on a knife\u2019s edge and could go higher if the underlying pressures aren\u2019t resolved.<\/p>\n<p>While unemployment has been at record low levels in the last 12 months, it\u2019s still a delicate situation that the Fed keeps a close eye on. If the unemployment rate rises nationally, it could indicate a recession is here; we\u2019re already seeing this happen at the state level, with California\u2018s unemployment rate at 4.5% compared to the national average of 3.7%. Equally, if interest rates continue to rise and become too punitive, businesses could cut back on hiring and we could see a dramatic drop in non-farm payrolls added each month.<\/p>\n<p>March\u2019s banking crisis is another reminder that punitive rate increases could cause more regional banks to topple; this year, the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF is still down 32%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The global inflation picture<\/h2>\n<p>Putting things into perspective, the U.S. economy is faring better than most, if not all, other developed global economies after the global pandemic lifted inflation pretty much everywhere.<\/p>\n<p>New data from S&amp;P Global found that economic activity in the Eurozone, which holds 20 European countries, has slowed to a glacial pace. The purchasing managers index declined to 50.3, a five-month low, led by France\u2019s worker strikes and Germany\u2019s recession. However, S&amp;P said the data reflected a \u201cmarked cooling of inflationary pressures,\u201d which will give the European Central Bank some hope.<\/p>\n<p>Things are even worse in the U.K. Headline inflation held steady in May at 8.7%, the worst of any G7 country, while core inflation accelerated to 7.1% &#8211; the highest level in 30 years. The Bank of England, in an attempt to show strength, surprised analysts by increasing interest rates by half a percentage point to 5%, causing misery for millions of homeowners coming off of short-term fixed-rate mortgages while food inflation and energy bills remain sky-high.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone thought China\u2019s economy would bounce back after re-opening from strict pandemic lockdowns, but the recovery hasn\u2019t been as enthusiastic as hoped. China\u2019s GDP growth is expected to be 5% rather than the 6% previously forecast, and last week the Chinese government cut lending rates in a bid to boost the sluggish economy.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>Yellen and Powell are right to be cautious: with Wall Street hanging onto every remark they make, they can\u2019t appear to be too optimistic and risk derailing months of hard work with battling inflation. That being said, most markers are heading in the right direction. If the Fed can balance the jobs market, core inflation pressures and unemployment, we could see the fabled \u2018soft landing\u2019 it\u2019s been after from the start.<\/p>\n<p><em>Sticky inflation doesn\u2019t mean you need to say goodbye to your portfolio gains. Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em> harnesses the power of AI to predict which inflation-defiant assets, such as TIPS, precious metals and commodities, could perform well by scanning through masses of data. It then dynamically adjusts the Kit\u2019s holdings to help you grow your returns without the upfront work.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/06\/26\/us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-downgrades-recession-risk-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods-yet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview the U.S. recession risk is downgraded Yellen also commented consumer spending still a risk; core CPI in May shows underlying inflation pressures still sticky The U.S. is faring better than Europe and the U.K. on inflation, while China\u2019s economy shows sluggish growth The U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-27604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Downgrades Recession Risk, But We\u2019re Not Out Of The Woods Yet | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key takeaways U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview the U.S. recession risk is downgraded Yellen also commented consumer spending\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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