{"id":27507,"date":"2023-06-26T06:15:36","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T10:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/commodities\/marketmind-world-markets-calm-after-russia-drama\/"},"modified":"2023-06-26T06:15:37","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T10:15:37","slug":"marketmind-world-markets-calm-after-russia-drama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=27507","title":{"rendered":"Marketmind: World markets calm after Russia drama"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.<\/p>\n

More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled.<\/p>\n

Fractious geopolitics have been front of mind for global investors ever since the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine early last year. But the fleeting risk of civil war and a toppling of Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed greater instability in the nuclear power than many had assumed.<\/p>\n

The quick truce to avert Progozhin’s mercenary mutineers entering Moscow on Saturday left even seasoned Kremlinoligists scratching their heads. An eerie calm held in Moscow on Monday.<\/p>\n

For markets, the threat of a power vacuum in a nuclear military power holds obvious risks – but the most extreme of which are near impossible to price and hence most asset managers hold and wait. Without more information, rock-bottom volatility measures and the dollar edged higher – though remained contained in recent holding patterns. <\/p>\n

Looked through an energy or commodity price lens, Russian oil, gas and many of its commodities are already either cut off from western markets or under some form of sanction – and so supply threats pack less of a price punch. <\/p>\n

The different scenarios tested could just as easily see regime change in Moscow eventually returning commodity supplies to markets and cutting prices – a potential positive for inflation and interest rates dogging world assets.<\/p>\n

Aside from the , which popped from pre-pandemic lows to its highest in 10 days just under 15, there was a mildly negative tilt to stocks – which were already on the back foot from downbeat June global business surveys last week.<\/p>\n

Shanghai stocks underperformed with losses of more than 1%. The – now down almost 5% in just six weeks – fell to another 2023 low on Monday.<\/p>\n

MORE SUBDUED<\/p>\n

European stocks and Wall Street futures were more subdued, and modestly in the red. Shares of major European defence firms Leonardo, Saab and Rheinmetall dropped between 5% and 6%.<\/p>\n

prices were actually lower on Monday, and still down almost 35% year-on-year. Gold was lower too, but wheat prices rose about 2%.<\/p>\n

For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows – but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%.<\/p>\n

Away from the Russian drama, the week ahead focuses on the latest inflation updates from Europe and the United States, with the results of U.S. bank stress tests on Wednesday a marker after the March regional bank failures.<\/p>\n

The fallout from last week’s dour business readouts was that European firms were struggling more than U.S. counterparts this month. Germany’s Ifo survey bore that out on Monday.<\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Two-year Treasury yields dipped briefly below 4.70% – some 10 basis points below last week’s peaks – ahead of an auction of new paper later on Monday.<\/p>\n

The world’s central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation.<\/p>\n

slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders’ holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.<\/p>\n

In banking, HSBC has decided to leave its longstanding headquarters in Canary Wharf in east London in favour of a move to a much smaller office in the centre of the city.<\/p>\n

Events to watch for later on Monday:<\/p>\n

* Dallas Federal Reserve’s June manufacturing survey<\/p>\n

* U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes, 3- and 6-month bills <\/p>\n

* European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal<\/p>\n

* Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, St Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester all speak <\/p>\n

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. Fractious geopolitics have been front of mind for global investors ever since the pandemic and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27208,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[242],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-27507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodities","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nMarketmind: World markets calm after Russia drama | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. 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