{"id":26983,"date":"2023-06-24T13:01:21","date_gmt":"2023-06-24T17:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/rebellion-in-russia-could-trigger-selloff-in-u-s-stocks-and-flight-to-safe-assets-analysts-say-heres-what-investors-should-know\/"},"modified":"2023-06-24T13:01:23","modified_gmt":"2023-06-24T17:01:23","slug":"rebellion-in-russia-could-trigger-selloff-in-u-s-stocks-and-flight-to-safe-assets-analysts-say-heres-what-investors-should-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=26983","title":{"rendered":"Rebellion in Russia could trigger selloff in U.S. stocks and flight to safe assets, analysts say. Here\u2019s what investors should know."},"content":{"rendered":"

Watch what happens over the next 36 hours. <\/p>\n

That was the advice from one financial analyst as U.S. investors awoke on Saturday to news of an armed rebellion against Moscow led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the powerful Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group. <\/p>\n

\n

Others speculated that the crisis in Russia could drive U.S. stocks lower, as some traders were already betting on a selloff once markets reopen on Monday due to the sudden increase in geopolitical risk.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe developments in Russia are ultimately going to suggest President Putin\u2019s leadership is weakening quickly and that resources may shift away from the war with Ukraine. It is too early to say how this will impact Wall Street, but the risk of desperate measures from Putin might make some investors nervous,\u201d Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst, at Oanda said Saturday. <\/p>\n

A simmering feud between Prigozhin, the leader of mercenary contractors who have been fighting alongside Russian military troops in Ukraine, and the Russian Defense Ministry came to a head early Saturday as Prigozhin led his troops to successfully overtake a Russian military outpost near the Ukraine border, which the military has used as its command center for overseeing the war. <\/p>\n

Amid the mixture of reliable information and unfounded speculation, market analysts have scrambled to try and make sense of the situation and what it might mean for financial markets and the global economy. <\/p>\n

The main theme that has emerged so far is that U.S. stocks could suffer unless the military manages to quickly suppress the rebellion. Why would something that could potentially end the war in Ukraine \u2014 which has been a bugbear for markets since Russian forces invaded in February 2022 \u2014 be a negative for stocks? <\/p>\n

The answer is that chaos leads to uncertainty, which is anathema to markets \u2014 especially when it could disrupt global oil and food supplies.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019d bet on this creating more uncertainty which is generally going to be negative for risk\u2026in the short term at least you see higher geopolitical risk premia \u2014 longer term the risks are on both sides really: does this precipitate the collapse of the Russian front and the war ends?\u201d said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, in a note to clients on Saturday. <\/p>\n

Others noted that the crisis is coming at a vulnerable time for U.S. markets, while Michael Antonelli, a market strategist at R.W. Baird & Co., tweeted that crisis \u201chas to be\u201d bearish for U.S. stocks. <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 index
\n SPX,
\n -0.77%<\/bg-quote>
\n closed out its worst week since March on Friday as series of interest rate hikes in the U.K. and across Europe last week sparked fresh fears of a global recession. Some analysts noted that the pullback swiftly followed signs that investors are growing more bullish following a powerful rally that sent stocks to their highest level in 14 months. There are concerns that this shift in sentiment could presage stocks\u2019 finally capitulating and heading lower. <\/p>\n

Sven Henrich, founder and lead strategist of Northman Trader, noted that the CBOE Volatility Index
\n VIX,
\n +4.11%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n or the so-called fear gauge, which measures of the stock market\u2019s expectations for volatility over the next 30 days, managed to finish out last week below 13.5, its lowest level since January 2020, even as stocks pulled back. <\/p>\n

If stocks do continue to slide, that would mean new lows for the Vix have once proved to be a reliable counter-indicator, suggesting that investors had grown too complacent before being walopped by a shock. <\/p>\n

Asian markets will be the first to react to ongoing developments by Sunday evening Eastern time, but derivatives traders using CME Group\u2019s Globex platform to trade swaps tracking the value of U.S. equity indexes are already betting on a selloff. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, bitcoin, an asset that does reliably trade 24\/7,
\n BTCUSD,
\n -1.40%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n is down just 0.8% at $30,675, a slight pullback after it reached its highest level in a year late last week. <\/p>\n

Where might investors turn for safety if markets become chaotic? <\/p>\n

Finalto\u2019s Wilson said investors could seek shelter in the currency market, where the U.S. dollar
\n DXY,
\n +0.47%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n Swiss franc
\n USDCHF,
\n -0.02%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n and maybe the euro
\n EURUSD,
\n +0.32%<\/bg-quote>
\n and British pound
\n GBPUSD,
\n +0.02%<\/bg-quote>
\n could benefit from a spike in demand. More \u201cde-risking\u201d could send investors into ultra-safe government bonds like U.S. Treasurys
\n TMUBMUSD10Y,
\n 3.741%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n which could help to push yields lower. Bond yields move inversely to prices. <\/p>\n

Wilson expects European indexes could be \u201cmore exposed to de-risking due to makeup and proximity to Russia and the war in Ukraine. He also noted the possibility that the crisis could send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite higher if investors decided to seek shelter in high-quality growth names like Apple Inc.
\n AAPL,
\n -0.17%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n Nvidia Corp.
\n NVDA,
\n -1.90%<\/bg-quote>
\n or Microsoft Corp.
\n MSFT,
\n -1.38%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n which have helped to drive this year\u2019s market rally. <\/p>\n

Whatever happens, the outcome of the crisis should be more clear within the next 35 hours, Wilson said. <\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026[H]ow the market opens after the weekend will depend on what happens in the next 36 hours\u2026.it could all be over by then,\u201d Wilson said. <\/p>\n

Regardless, one of the first to interpret the market\u2019s reaction on Monday will be Melbourne-based Chris Weston, head of research at online broker Pepperstone. <\/p>\n

Until then, he cautioned against investors reading too much into the situation, since analysts\u2019 visibility into a very complicated geopolitical situation is \u201cpoor.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cThe humble market participant would simply say they have no edge in knowing how this plays out and our visibility to read this through to markets is currently poor \u2014 the information is often biased and it\u2019s hard to truly know what is fact and what is fed to influence\u2026 will this lead to genuine regime change, fail or perhaps inflame and lead to a market shock?\u201d Weston said in comments provided to MarketWatch. <\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point we simply don\u2019t know, but it feels like we get enough clarity on potential outcomes and even timelines in the next 24-48 hours \u2014 at this point the prospect of modest downside in risk on Monday is elevated and naturally we\u2019ll be watching crude, and EU assets most closely,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy, said in an email to clients that the ongoing uncertainty fueled by the Wagner rebellion reveals the fragility of the Putin regime, and might marginally boost chances of a Ukraine victory. <\/p>\n

But Haines also conceded that it\u2019s a \u201cdeveloping and unstable situation with various facets that on net add to geopolitical uncertainties, to which markets usually react negatively.\u201d Investors must also consider that should that rebellion fail, it could be \u201creplaced by stronger Russian control,\u201d or create more instability as \u201cWagner disintegrates.\u201d <\/p>\n

In that same vein, Jim Bianco, head of Bianco research offered up a joke aimed at all the armchair geopolitical analysts suddenly flocking to Twitter. <\/p>\n

Markets may take a look at this crisis and view it as a \u201cbullish development after some initial volatility, the\u00a0Kobeissi Letter\u2019s\u00a0editor in chief and founder Adam Kobeissi told MarketWatch in comments. <\/p>\n

\u201cAfter all, the end of the war in Ukraine is the market\u2019s top geopolitical driver right now and if this increases the odds of a peace agreement and\/or Russia withdrawing from Ukraine, it is likely to be perceived as bullish over the next few weeks,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He recommended that investors keep an eye on prices of oil and gold, which could be particularly sensitive to any developments. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf this means more conflict, then oil
\n CL.1,
\n +0.51%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n bonds
\n TMUBMUSD10Y,
\n 3.741%<\/bg-quote>
\n and gold
\n GC00,
\n +0.04%<\/bg-quote>
\n are poised to rally,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Watch what happens over the next 36 hours. That was the advice from one financial analyst as U.S. investors awoke on Saturday to news of an armed rebellion against Moscow led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the powerful Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group. Others speculated that the crisis in Russia could drive U.S. stocks […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-26983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nRebellion in Russia could trigger selloff in U.S. stocks and flight to safe assets, analysts say. Here\u2019s what investors should know. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Watch what happens over the next 36 hours. 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