{"id":25824,"date":"2023-06-22T03:07:08","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T07:07:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/intercontinental-exchange-stock-nyse-owner-held-back-by-high-valuation-nyseice\/"},"modified":"2023-06-22T03:07:10","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T07:07:10","slug":"intercontinental-exchange-stock-nyse-owner-held-back-by-high-valuation-nyseice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=25824","title":{"rendered":"Intercontinental Exchange Stock: NYSE Owner Held Back By High Valuation (NYSE:ICE)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">New York Stock Exchange<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Summary.<\/h2>\n<p>Not long ago, I posed the question.. how can an investor own a piece of the financial exchanges themselves, and that led to my first analysis covering a major owner of derivatives exchanges, Chicago&#8217;s CME Group<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> (<\/span>CME<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">), one I have personally visited in Chicago&#8217;s financial district, along with options exchange operator CBOE Global Markets (<\/span>CBOE<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Continuing on the theme of exchange operators, today I am rating the NYSE&#8217;s owner, <strong>Intercontinental Exchange<\/strong> (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:ICE<\/span>).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">This stock is getting a <strong>Hold rating.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Its strengths are a solid cash position, revenue diversification, and stable dividend growth for the dividend investor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Its headwinds are overvaluation, and potential macro risks of a looming recession that could affect trading volumes in general as investors hold on to cash in that scenario, causing less transaction volume for the exchanges.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Company Brief.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">ICE<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> crosses the spectrum of data, technology, and financial markets. According to <\/span><em>Wikipedia<\/em><span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">, the company has 12 regulated exchanges &amp; marketplaces, including the <\/span><em class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">New York Stock Exchange,<\/em><span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> which it acquired in 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Besides operating stock exchanges, they also have a mortgage technology segment and a fixed income &amp; data services segment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">On the data side, one notable solution the company offers is to &#8220;enhance risk management, maintain compliance and maximize operational efficiency with high-quality reference data on over 35 million financial instruments covering more than 210 markets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This ability to make a business out of mountains of data flowing through exchanges also sets them apart, which is why I mention it.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Rating Methodology.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Albert Anthony &amp; Co<\/em> is an equities research &amp; analysis firm I run remotely, and the approach to research analysis we use on Seeking Alpha is to find stocks trading cheaply but who otherwise have strong financial fundamentals, and we primarily cover the financial &amp; technology sectors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I ask the following 5 questions, and each yes answer is worth 20 points. A total score below 60 is a sell, a 60 is a hold, and above 60 is a buy.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Is the stock suitable for dividend-income investors?<\/li>\n<li>Is there a value buying opportunity based on the price chart &amp; valuations?<\/li>\n<li>Is revenue diversified across more than one source or business segment?<\/li>\n<li>Is the company in a healthy position in terms of capital &amp; liquidity?<\/li>\n<li>Does the current macro environment help this business?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Stable Growth for the Dividend Investor.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The first category being rated is dividends, and the reference data comes from Seeking Alpha.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This stock currently has a <strong>dividend yield of 1.50%<\/strong>, as well as having 5 years of steady dividend growth, as shown below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873417895918136.jpg\" alt=\"ICE - dividend growth\" width=\"640\" height=\"305\" contenteditable=\"true\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"305\" spellcheck=\"false\" data-ms-editor=\"true\" data-gramm=\"false\" wt-ignore-input=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ICE &#8211; dividend growth (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consider that the annual dividend was $0.96 per share in 2018, and went up to $1.52 in 2022. In addition, the quarterly payouts have been steady and consistently reliable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Only one of its peers, however, is more competitive on dividend yield. For example, CME Group current yield is 2.42%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For this reason, I think <strong>yes<\/strong> ICE could be a good stock to add to a dividend-income portfolio.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Currently Looks Overvalued.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The following is this stock&#8217;s price chart before market open on <em>Wednesday June 21st:<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873397327365346.jpg\" alt=\"ICE - price chart June 21\" width=\"640\" height=\"307\" contenteditable=\"true\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"307\" spellcheck=\"false\" data-ms-editor=\"true\" data-gramm=\"false\" wt-ignore-input=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ICE &#8211; price chart June 21 (StreetSmartEdge trading platform from Charles Schwab)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As analysts, we look for bullish and bearish trends and try to predict what the trend will do the next day, week, quarter, and year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this chart, I am tracking the <em>50-day SMA<\/em> (blue line) vs the <em>200-day SMA<\/em> (red line).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">My chart shows a lagging indicator (death cross) occurred in May 2022 showing a bearish price trend already having formed, which reversed to a bullish price trend indicated by the golden cross formation in January 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">At this time, the stock price is still in that bullish pattern, and trading well above its 200-day SMA, having also quickly rebounded from the &#8220;dip&#8221; in March.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Next, let&#8217;s talk about valuation metrics such as forward <em>Price to Earnings (P\/E)<\/em> and forward <em>Price to Book (P\/B),<\/em> with data from Seeking Alpha.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Its <strong>forward P\/E (GAAP basis) is currently 24.59<\/strong>, or over 162% higher than its sector median. Also, it is over 10 points above the May 2023 benchmark of 14.93 for the S&amp;P 500, which would make it overvalued on this metric.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Its <strong>forward P\/B is currently 2.67<\/strong>, or 175% above its sector median. This is over 2 points above the benchmark I use of 1.0, so it appears to be slightly overvalued on this mark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So after looking at the price chart, and the two valuation metrics discussed, the answer is <strong>No<\/strong> this stock does not show a value buying opportunity right now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A better opportunity would have been to scoop it up during the March dip, as it ended up rebounding quite nicely after that.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I would wait on the next dip or death cross formation to seize on a good buying price, and this could also mean an even better dividend yield.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Revenue Diversification Across 3 Segments.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The next category is whether this firm has adequate revenue diversification, which I believe lessens the risk of it depending overly on one product or solution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the case of ICE, the following table from Q1 results shows revenue diversification across its three revenue segments, which are exchanges, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873413672525873.jpg\" alt=\"ICE - revenue by segment\" width=\"640\" height=\"258\" contenteditable=\"true\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"258\" spellcheck=\"false\" data-ms-editor=\"true\" data-gramm=\"false\" wt-ignore-input=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ICE &#8211; revenue by segment (ICE)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In my understanding of the exchanges business segment, since that appears to be the largest revenue driver in the above chart (68% of total revenue), it is important to note that this segment also has revenue substreams. Since the main ways a stock exchange makes money is through transaction fees on each trade, and listing fees for getting an equity listed. Also, members on the floor of the NYSE have to pay a fee to be able to trade on the exchange.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">All of these various revenue streams bode well, I think, for the exchange&#8217;s parent company, in this case ICE, since &#8220;the house&#8221; will earn transaction &amp; membership fees regardless of whether investors &amp; traders win or lose on those trades. However, adequate trading volume still has to exist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From a forward-looking viewpoint, <em>ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher<\/em> set a positive tone in his Q1 commentary:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>As we look to the balance of the year and beyond, ICE&#8217;s diverse platform is well positioned to continue to serve our customers, generate growth and create value for our stockholders.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So although the exchanges business segment is well over half of revenue, there is still a decent mix of revenue coming from their other segments, hence the answer is <strong>Yes they appear to be revenue-diversified enough.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Strong Capital and Liquidity.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Q1 results showed both <strong>positive adjusted free cashflow<\/strong> that increased YoY, as well as a balance sheet with <strong>positive equity and $2.1B in unrestricted cash:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873747400768883.jpg\" alt=\"ICE - free cashflow\" width=\"640\" height=\"206\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"206\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ICE &#8211; free cashflow (ICE Q1 results presentation)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873749002852795.jpg\" alt=\"ICE - balance sheet\" width=\"640\" height=\"307\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"307\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ICE &#8211; balance sheet (ICE &#8211; Q1 results)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Further, according to its Q1 earnings presentation, &#8220;through the first quarter of 2023, ICE paid $236 million in dividends.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This appears to me to be a cash-rich firm in no liquidity dangers, so in terms of capital strength the answer is <strong>Yes<\/strong> it has it.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Potential Recession in Macro Environment.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">How could a potential recession in 2023 affect stock exchanges? That is the key question now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I would argue that it could decrease the volume of trading as more people begin hoarding extra cash rather than deploying it to trade stocks. This lessened trading volume could impact the exchanges segment of this company, which I have shown is well over half of revenue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consider the following from a <em>Feb. 2023 article in Investopedia<\/em> that highlights the potential recessionary impact on investors:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>During a recession, stock prices typically plummet. The markets can be volatile with share prices experiencing wild swings. Investors react quickly to any hint of news-either good or bad-and the <strong>flight to safety can cause some investors to pull their money out of the stock market entirely.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So, it is not the volatility that is bad for exchanges, but the potential for a decrease in trading volume itself due to skittish investors hoarding cash.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So far this week, CNBC has said on June 21 that &#8220;despite recent good news, many on Wall Street still see a recession coming&#8221;. Barron&#8217;s also said that same day that &#8220;California is signaling a recession.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Although ICE has a diversified revenue mix, it is still fundamentally an operator of exchanges and dependent heavily on trading volume.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consider the possibility highlighted in the chart below from <em>Investopedia<\/em>, published in a June 21 article, which is highlighting the negative yield curve as a recessionary alarm bell:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/58572054-16873794352753856.jpg\" alt=\"Yield curve\" width=\"640\" height=\"400\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"400\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Yield curve (Investopedia)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For this reason, I am not overly bullish on this stock at this time and would say, <strong>No,<\/strong> the macro environment will not be overly in its favor in the event of a recession.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Risks to my Outlook.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A risk to my neutral outlook on this stock would be that recession predictions are actually wrong, and we see a massive bull market occur sometime this year. This would make my rating overly cautious on this stock.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There has been talk of a potential bull market, however let me point out what Money magazine had to say not long ago in a May 30th article which shares my hesitation on the bulls:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>While some experts expect stocks to keep climbing, others say not so fast. Stocks&#8217; recent gains don&#8217;t necessarily mean a major rally is around the corner, <em>Morgan Stanley<\/em> equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients last week.<\/p>\n<p>Wilson says earnings estimates are too high, which could lead to losses down the road when investors encounter lower-than-expected earnings reports from companies.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I think the upcoming Q2 results and guidance from ICE should be waited on with excitement, as I think it should set the tone for this stock in the next few months.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Conclusion.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This stock scored a <strong>total of 60 points<\/strong> in my rating methodology, and is given a <strong>Hold rating<\/strong> for this reason. This is in line with Seeking Alpha&#8217;s own Quant system that also rated this stock a Hold, despite the consensus among analysts giving it a Buy rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Its positives are stable dividend growth, revenue diversification, stable capital &amp; liquidity position.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Its headwinds are that it currently appears overvalued, and the macro risk of a moderate recession could impact trading volumes as people trade less and hold on to cash more, as a safety mechanism.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I continue to say, however, on a positive note that <em>data<\/em> is the new economy and has been for a while now, and if exchange owners like CME and ICE can continue to capitalize on that segment further then I think looking forward there is potentially limitless growth opportunity with data, so for that reason both of these stocks continue to be on my watch list in 2023 as companies to keep an eye on and look for the value-buying opportunities to pick up shares and add to an existing portfolio of financial stocks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In a sentence, like ICE says on their website, &#8220;we connect data, technology and expertise.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I couldn&#8217;t have said it better myself!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4612939-intercontinental-exchange-stock-nyse-owner-leads-in-data-but-held-back-by-high-valuation?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New York Stock Exchange Summary. Not long ago, I posed the question.. how can an investor own a piece of the financial exchanges themselves, and that led to my first analysis covering a major owner of derivatives exchanges, Chicago&#8217;s CME Group (CME), one I have personally visited in Chicago&#8217;s financial district, along with options exchange [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-25824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Intercontinental Exchange Stock: NYSE Owner Held Back By High Valuation (NYSE:ICE) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New York Stock Exchange Summary. 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