{"id":22320,"date":"2023-06-14T01:15:40","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T05:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/will-altria-stock-rebound-to-its-2022-highs\/"},"modified":"2023-06-14T01:15:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T05:15:42","slug":"will-altria-stock-rebound-to-its-2022-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=22320","title":{"rendered":"Will Altria Stock Rebound To Its 2022 Highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/MO\/\">Altria stock<\/strong> (NYSE: MO) currently trades at $45 per share, around 20% below its level of $57 on May 7, 2022 (pre-inflation shock high), and it seems like it has the potential for sizable gains. Altria saw its stock trading at around $51 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is still 12% below that level. In comparison, the S&amp;P 500 gained about 6% during this period. The stock price has suffered over recent months due to a mixed Q1, which saw a low double-digit decline in the volume of smokable products sold and a modest margin decline. Still, the company re-affirmed its full-year outlook of 3% to 6% adjusted earnings growth.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that Altria stock will have to gain more than 25% from here. While it has the potential to recover to those levels, we estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/MO\/no-login-required\/xx9zhlR2\/Altria-MO-Valuation-Is-MO-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230612\">Altria\u2019s valuation<\/strong> to be around $50 per share, about 12% above the market price. This is because the recent uncertainty in the financial sector has made investors concerned about a potential recession. Altria\u2019s business may see an adverse impact on its cigarette volume if the U.S. economy were to go into recession, with customers shifting to lesser-priced alternatives.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/MO\/no-login-required\/nxRZT8vC\/Altria-Group-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-MO-Stock-Has-25-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230612\">Altria\u2019s upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022. It compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt the supply<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how Altria stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Altria and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>MO stock fell from nearly $70 in September 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to $15 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying MO stock lost over 75% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $20 in early 2010, rising roughly 27% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Altria\u2019s Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Altria\u2019s revenues stood at $25.1 billion in 2022, at the same level they were in 2019, before the pandemic. This can be attributed to better price realization and continued growth in oral tobacco products; both helped offset a decline in cigarette volume in the recent years. Altria\u2019s EPS also increased to $3.19 in 2022, compared to a loss of $0.70 per share in 2019. The earnings growth was driven by a 2500 bps rise in the reported operating margin to 29.4% in 2022. This was due to an $8.9 billion impairment charge related to its JUUL investment in 2019. On an adjusted basis, EPS grew to $4.85 from $4.22 over the same period. Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/MO\/no-login-required\/sqCSgbCT\/Altria-Group-MO-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230612\">Altria Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboard has more details.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does Altria Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Altria\u2019s total debt decreased from $28 billion in 2019 to $27 billion in 2022, while its total cash increased from around $2.1 billion to $4.0 billion over the same period. The company also has long-term investments, which have declined substantially from $23.6 billion to $9.6 billion over this period. This can primarily be attributed to a significant decline in the market value of JUUL, after its products were banned in the U.S. by the FDA in June last year, and the company faced several lawsuits.<sup> [<\/sup><sup data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/why-the-fda-banned-juul-e-cigarettes-11666374991\">1<\/sup><sup>]<\/sup>. It also garners about $8 billion in cash flows from operations. Given the higher cash flows, the company will likely be able to meet its near-term obligations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe Altria stock has the potential for more gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. That said, fears of a potential recession and its impact on the cigarette volume means it may take some time for MO stock to reach its pre-inflation shock highs of over $57.<\/p>\n<p>While MO stock has some room for growth, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/MO\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Altria\u2019s Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/RsQ6oXgC\/High-Quality-Portfolio-30-Stocks-with-189-Return-Since-2016-vs-88-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230612\">high-quality portfolio<\/strong> that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/06\/12\/will-altria-stock-rebound-to-its-2022-highs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Altria stock (NYSE: MO) currently trades at $45 per share, around 20% below its level of $57 on May 7, 2022 (pre-inflation shock high), and it seems like it has the potential for sizable gains. Altria saw its stock trading at around $51 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-22320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Altria Stock Rebound To Its 2022 Highs? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Altria stock (NYSE: MO) currently trades at $45 per share, around 20% below its level of $57 on May 7, 2022 (pre-inflation shock high), and it seems like\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=22320\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Altria Stock Rebound To Its 2022 Highs? 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