{"id":20401,"date":"2023-06-09T07:35:49","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T11:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/is-jci-a-better-pick-over-honeywell-stock\/"},"modified":"2023-06-09T07:35:50","modified_gmt":"2023-06-09T11:35:50","slug":"is-jci-a-better-pick-over-honeywell-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=20401","title":{"rendered":"Is JCI A Better Pick Over Honeywell Stock?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>We believe <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/JCI\/\">Johnson Controls stock<\/strong> (NYSE: JCI) is a better pick than its sector peer, <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/\">Honeywell stock<\/strong> (NYSE: HON), given its better prospects. JCI trades at a higher valuation multiple of <strong>4.6x<\/strong> trailing revenues, vs. <strong>3.7x<\/strong> for Honeywell, partly due to its better revenue growth. However, we believe this gap should narrow over time in favor of Honeywell, given its superior profitability and financial position, as discussed below. Still, JCI remains a better pick in our view.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at stock returns, both have underperformed vis-\u00e0-vis broader markets amid rising concerns over supply-chain issues and slowing economic growth. While HON is down 7% this year, JCI is flat, and the S&amp;P500 index is up 11%. There is more to the comparison, and in the sections below, we discuss why we believe that JCI will offer better returns than HON in the next three years. We compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/ErLyP71m\/Honeywell-vs-Johnson-Controls-With-Return-Forecast-Of-18-Johnson-Controls-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell vs. Johnson Controls<\/strong><fbs-ticker data-name=\"JCI\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/johnson-controls\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  JCI<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>: <strong>Which Stock Is A Better Bet?<\/strong> Parts of the analysis are summarized below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Johnson Controls\u2019 Revenue Growth Is Better <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Johnson Controls\u2019 revenue growth has been better, with a <strong>3.3%<\/strong> average annual growth rate in the last three years, compared to <strong>-0.9%<\/strong> for Honeywell.<\/li>\n<li>With airlines being one of the worst-hit sectors during the pandemic, Honeywell\u2019s aerospace revenues were weighed down during the pandemic.<\/li>\n<li>While this trend has now reversed and Honeywell is seeing a steady rise in sales for most of its businesses &#8211; aerospace, building technologies, and performance materials business &#8211; lower demand for personal protective equipment weighs on its safety &amp; productivity solutions segment sales.<\/li>\n<li>Johnson Controls also faced headwinds in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic. However, it has seen a rebound in building products and solutions demand over the last few years. This clubbed with better price realization for its HVAC products, has bolstered its top-line growth in the recent past.<\/li>\n<li>If we look at the last twelve-month period revenues, both Honeywell and Johnson Controls have seen sales growth of <strong>4.8%.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>While better price realization and pick-up in demand for aviation has led the sales growth for Honeywell in the recent quarters, strong demand trends for Johnson Controls\u2019 commercial HVAC and fire and safety products have bolstered its top-line expansion.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/jCtL8rab\/Honeywell-HON-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell Revenue Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/JCI\/no-login-required\/1luSQOSq\/Johnson-Controls-JCI-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Johnson Controls Revenue Comparison<\/strong> dashboards provide more insight into the companies\u2019 sales.<\/li>\n<li>Looking forward, Johnson Controls\u2019 revenue is expected to grow faster than Honeywell\u2019s over the next three years. The table below summarizes our revenue expectations for the two companies over the next three years. It points to a CAGR of <strong>3%<\/strong> for Honeywell, compared to a <strong>9%<\/strong> CAGR for Johnson Controls, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis.<\/li>\n<li>Note that we have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid and those not impacted or positively impacted by Covid while forecasting future revenues. For companies negatively affected by Covid, we consider the quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to predict recovery to the pre-Covid revenue run rate. Beyond the recovery point, we apply the average annual growth observed three years before Covid to simulate a return to normal conditions. For companies registering positive revenue growth during Covid, we consider yearly average growth before Covid with a certain weight to growth during Covid and the last twelve months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Honeywell Is More Profitable<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Honeywell\u2019s operating margin has slid slightly from <strong>18.7%<\/strong> in 2019 to <strong>18.1%<\/strong> in 2022, while Johnson Controls\u2019 operating margin rose from <strong>12.2%<\/strong> to <strong>18.2%<\/strong> over this period.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve-month period, Honeywell\u2019s operating margin of <strong>19.0% <\/strong>fares better than<strong> 15.7% <\/strong>for Johnson Controls.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/LcABRt6v\/Honeywell-HON-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell Operating Income Comparison<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/JCI\/no-login-required\/4LPjq5nr\/Johnson-Controls-JCI-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Johnson Controls Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboards have more details.<\/li>\n<li>Johnson Controls\u2019 free cash flow margin of <strong>18%<\/strong> is higher than <strong>12%<\/strong> for Honeywell.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at financial risk, Honeywell fares better with its <strong>14%<\/strong> debt as a percentage of equity, lower than <strong>24%<\/strong> for Johnson Controls and its <strong>12% <\/strong>cash as a percentage of assets higher than <strong>5%<\/strong> for the latter, implying that HON has a better debt position and more cash cushion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3. The Net of It All<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We see that Honeywell is more profitable, has a better financial position, and is trading at a lower valuation multiple than JCI. On the other hand, Johnson Controls has seen better revenue growth.<\/li>\n<li>Now, looking at prospects, using P\/S as a base, due to high fluctuations in P\/E and P\/EBIT, we believe Johnson Controls is the better choice of the two, despite it being more expensive.<\/li>\n<li>Both stocks are trading at a slightly higher multiple compared to their historical averages. Honeywell\u2019s stock trades at <strong>3.7x<\/strong> trailing revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>3.5x, <\/strong>and Johnson Controls\u2019 stock trades at <strong>4.6x<\/strong> trailing revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>4.2x<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/GMHCMd5x\/Honeywell-HON-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/JCI\/no-login-required\/snvxtQAL\/Johnson-Controls-JCI-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Johnson Controls Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> have more details.<\/li>\n<li>The table below summarizes our revenue and return expectations for both companies over the next three years and points to an expected return of <strong>1%<\/strong> for Honeywell over this period vs. an <strong>18%<\/strong> expected return for Johnson Controls, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis \u2013 <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/ErLyP71m\/Honeywell-vs-Johnson-Controls-With-Return-Forecast-Of-18-Johnson-Controls-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell vs. Johnson Controls<\/strong> \u2013 which also provides more details on how we arrive at these numbers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While JCI may outperform HON stock in the next three years, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Honeywell\u2019s Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you\u2019ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for<strong> <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HON\/no-login-required\/4uAHVEUD\/Honeywell-vs-Amkor-Technology-HON-stock-s-significantly-higher-valuation-vs-AMKR-appears-counterintuitive?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">Honeywell vs. Amkor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>With higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, among other factors, HON stock has seen a fall of 7% this year. Can it drop more? See how low Honeywell stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/RsQ6oXgC\/High-Quality-Portfolio-30-Stocks-with-189-Return-Since-2016-vs-88-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230609\">high-quality portfolio<\/strong> that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/06\/09\/is-jci-a-better-pick-over-honeywell-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We believe Johnson Controls stock (NYSE: JCI) is a better pick than its sector peer, Honeywell stock (NYSE: HON), given its better prospects. JCI trades at a higher valuation multiple of 4.6x trailing revenues, vs. 3.7x for Honeywell, partly due to its better revenue growth. However, we believe this gap should narrow over time in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-20401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is JCI A Better Pick Over Honeywell Stock? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We believe Johnson Controls stock (NYSE: JCI) is a better pick than its sector peer, Honeywell stock (NYSE: HON), given its better prospects. 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