{"id":19414,"date":"2023-06-07T10:36:47","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T14:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/ai-can-further-boost-the-sp-500-says-goldman-sachs-heres-how-much\/"},"modified":"2023-06-07T10:36:48","modified_gmt":"2023-06-07T14:36:48","slug":"ai-can-further-boost-the-sp-500-says-goldman-sachs-heres-how-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=19414","title":{"rendered":"AI can further boost the S&P 500, says Goldman Sachs. Here\u2019s how much."},"content":{"rendered":"

Looks like Wednesday will see Wall Street open a touch softer. As next week\u2019s inflation data and Fed decision loom, it seems the rally has stalled. But at least it\u2019s stalled above 4,200 for the S&P 500
\n SPX,
\n -0.07%<\/bg-quote>.<\/span>\n <\/p>\n

What can reinforce the sense that the level which proved such a stubborn ceiling can now provide sturdy support?<\/p>\n

\n

Well, in a new note, a group of Goldman Sachs equity strategists, led by Ryan Hammond and David Kostin, set out to quantify the impact AI will have on business and by extension the stock market.<\/p>\n

An executive summary of their findings might read: AI should give the S&P 500 a boost, but there\u2019s a lot of uncertainty, and a fair few caveats, too.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with how it may help company earnings. The Goldman team says the bank\u2019s own economists reckon AI could deliver a boost to aggregate revenues.<\/p>\n

This is particularly true for those companies directly involved with the development of AI. Nvidia
\n NVDA,
\n +0.15%<\/bg-quote>
\n is the well-known example of a winner in providing computing power, while those exploiting a total addressable market of $150 billion for generative AI enterprise software\u2013 assuming a 30% adoption rate \u2014 should also make hay.<\/p>\n

But more than that, AI may raise U.S. overall labor productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points (pp) over a 10-year period as it frees up workers to other productive activities and those workers displaced by AI automation are re-employed in the new AI-infused economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIncreased economy-wide output could translate into increased revenues and earnings for S&P 500 companies, even beyond those firms directly involved in the development of AI,\u201d says Goldman.<\/p>\n

All this increased productivity and trend real GDP growth from widespread AI adoption will lift the 20-year compound annual growth rate for S&P 500 earnings per share from 4.9% to 5.4%, Goldman reckons.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

And the upshot: \u201c[W]idespread AI adoption in business practices during the next 10 years followed by a decade of faster EPS growth would support an S&P 500 fair value 9% above current levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s great, however there are other factors to consider; notably the difficulty in extrapolating nascent adoption of a transformational technology and how much S&P 500 companies will actually be able to capture these profits.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur economists\u2019 estimates of AI adoption on productivity growth vary from 0.3 pp to 2.9 pp annually, depending on the speed of adoption, the power of AI, and the breadth of labor displacement. Based on a range of EPS growth estimates, the increase in S&P 500 fair value could range from as a low as +5% to as high as +14%,\u201d says Goldman.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

The benefit of AI to the S&P 500 may also be crimped by policy considerations. With profits as a share of GDP already running at what Goldman calls an \u201celevated level relative to history,\u201d and wages as a share of GDP \u201cnear an historical low\u201d it may be tempting for politicians to ensure business was not seen reaping too much reward from AI-induced worker dislocation.<\/p>\n

For example, the effective rate of corporation tax would have to rise from the current roughly 20% to 28% in 20 years \u201cto fully offset the 11% increase in the stream of future S&P 500 earnings that may otherwise occur as a consequence of corporations embracing AI,\u201d says Goldman.<\/p>\n

Goldman also notes that even if the optimistic scenario for earnings does come to pass, it would unlikely protect the market from concerns about an economic downturn. Productivity growth usually explains only a small portion of S&P 500 returns.<\/p>\n

Yet, for those worried that the current AI excitement has left the market in a dotcom-like bubble, Goldman provides the charts below. Some valuations are high but not at extremes.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Markets<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Stock index futures
\n ES00,
\n +0.05%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n

YM00,
\n +0.16%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n

NQ00,
\n -0.26%<\/bg-quote>
\n were a touch softer as benchmark Treasury yields
\n TMUBMUSD10Y,
\n 3.743%<\/bg-quote>
\n were little changed. The dollar
\n DXY,
\n -0.23%<\/bg-quote>
\n was a bit weaker and gold
\n GC00,
\n -0.24%<\/bg-quote>
\n was barely changed. Oil
\n CL.1,
\n +1.52%<\/bg-quote>
\n was firmer. <\/p>\n

Try your hand at the Barron\u2019s crossword puzzle and sudoku games, now running daily along with a weekly digital jigsaw based on the week\u2019s cover story. To see all puzzles,\u00a0<\/strong>click here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The buzz<\/h2>\n

China\u2019s exports fell by 7.5% in May compared to the year before. That\u2019s much worse than the decline of 1% expected and, along with news of imports dropping 4.5%, painted a concerning picture of global demand.<\/p>\n

Economic data on the slate for Wednesday include the U.S. trade deficit for April, due at 8:30 a.m., and the April consumer credit report at 3 pm.. Both times Eastern.<\/p>\n

The Turkish lira
\n USDTRY,
\n +7.40%<\/bg-quote>
\n fell more than 6% to touch another record low, changing hands for around 23.1 to the dollar, on signs policymakers were reducing support for the currency.<\/p>\n

Smoke from 400 Canadian wildfires is casting a pall of smog over New York and other parts of Eastern U.S..<\/p>\n

Shares of Yext
\n YEXT,
\n +41.13%<\/bg-quote>
\n rallied more than 17% in premarket after the digital platform beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal first quarter and raised guidance for the year. <\/p>\n

Stitch Fix <\/strong>
\n SFIX,
\n +29.35%<\/bg-quote>
\n shares rose more than 7%r after the online personal styling service reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and announced plans to scale back operations. <\/p>\n

Best of the web<\/h2>\n

The myth of the \u2018Asian century\u2019.<\/p>\n

Treasury\u2019s $1 trillion debt deluge threatens market calm.<\/p>\n

The U.S. is not in recession \u2013 and it may not be headed for one.<\/p>\n

Water crisis threatens alcoholic drinks supply, Diageo warns.<\/p>\n

The chart<\/h2>\n

Short sellers appear to be increasing their bets against the semiconductor industry despite the U.S. government looking to bolster the domestic industry and reduce America\u2019s reliance on foreign nations for these materials, say Brian Scheid and Annie Sabater at S&P Global Market Intelligence.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs of mid-May, short interest in semiconductor materials and equipment stocks has risen 77 basis points year over year to 4.52%\u2026Short interest in semiconductor stocks was at 3.78% in mid-May, up 38 basis points in a year,\u201d they note.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Top tickers<\/h2>\n

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n Ticker<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n Security name<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n TSLA,
\n +3.09%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Tesla<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n GME,
\n +4.70%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n NVDA,
\n +0.15%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Nvidia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AAPL,
\n -0.08%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Apple<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n BUD,
\n +0.42%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Anheuser-Busch InBev ADR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AMC,
\n +0.43%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n AMC Entertainment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n PLTR,
\n +6.63%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Palantir Technologies<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n NIO,
\n -1.27%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n NIO<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AI,
\n -2.66%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n C3.ai <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n BABA,
\n -0.99%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Alibaba ADR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

Random reads<\/h2>\n

New smiley Gecko.<\/p>\n

A lot of slobber.<\/p>\n

An exciting piece of wood.<\/p>\n

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but<\/strong> sign up here<\/strong> to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Listen to the <\/strong>Best New Ideas in Money podcast<\/strong> with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Looks like Wednesday will see Wall Street open a touch softer. As next week\u2019s inflation data and Fed decision loom, it seems the rally has stalled. But at least it\u2019s stalled above 4,200 for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.07%. What can reinforce the sense that the level which proved such a stubborn ceiling can now […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-19414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nAI can further boost the S&P 500, says Goldman Sachs. Here\u2019s how much. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Looks like Wednesday will see Wall Street open a touch softer. 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