{"id":18393,"date":"2023-06-05T11:49:08","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T15:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/gap-stock-has-upside-potential-to-its-pre-inflation-peak\/"},"modified":"2023-06-05T11:49:10","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T15:49:10","slug":"gap-stock-has-upside-potential-to-its-pre-inflation-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=18393","title":{"rendered":"Gap Stock Has Upside Potential To Its Pre-Inflation Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Gap Inc. stock (NYSE: GPS), a specialty retailer selling casual apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Gap<fbs-ticker data-name=\"GPS\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/gap\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  GPS<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands, currently trades at $8 per share, around 78% below its level of $36 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and has the potential for sizable gains. GPS saw its stock trading at around $8.21 at the beginning of October 2022, when the Fed kept increasing rates, and now remains marginally below those levels. In comparison, the S&amp;P 500 gained about 18% during this period. Gap\u2019s stock hasn\u2019t seen much improvement because the retailer continues to have many headwinds, including the lack of a permanent CEO, and stagnation of its brands. The company has been without a permanent CEO since the summer of 2022. Still, the company saw a better-than-expected Q1. The company\u2019s net sales for the fiscal first quarter of 2023, which ended in April, dropped 6% year-over-year (y-o-y) to about $3.3 billion. Gap\u2019s net income greatly improved in Q1 compared to the same quarter of last year, although it was still in the red. In Q1 2023, it had a net loss of $18 million, whereas its net loss was $162 million last year.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that Gap will have to gain about 350% from here. While it has the potential to recover to those levels, we estimate Gap\u2019s Valuation to be around $10 per share, about 19% above the current market price. This is because the recent uncertainty in the retail sector has made investors concerned about a potential recession. Gap\u2019s business may see an adverse impact on its volume if the U.S. economy were to go into recession, with customers holding back on discretionary purchases.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/GPS\/no-login-required\/vMaRIKX9\/Gap-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-GPS-Stock-Has-350-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">Gap\u2019s upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022 and compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers were unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt the supply<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how GPS stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 &#8211; 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>GPS and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>GPS stock declined from nearly $19 in October 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to $11 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying that GPS stock lost almost 42% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $21 in early 2010, rising roughly 94% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GPS Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>GPS revenues declined from around $16.4 billion in 2019 to about $13.8 billion in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19. However, sales rose back to $15.6 billion in 2022, as demand picked up. Earnings per share declined from around 93 cents in 2019 to a loss of $1.78 in 2020, although it improved to a loss of 55 cents in 2022. The retailer had a difficult FY 2022, with revenue falling 6% y-o-y, comparable sales down 7%, and merchandise margin down 430 basis points y-o-y.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe Gap stock has the potential for strong gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a high-quality portfolio that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/06\/05\/gap-stock-has-upside-potential-to-its-pre-inflation-peak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gap Inc. stock (NYSE: GPS), a specialty retailer selling casual apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Gap GPS , Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands, currently trades at $8 per share, around 78% below its level of $36 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-18393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gap Stock Has Upside Potential To Its Pre-Inflation Peak | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gap Inc. stock (NYSE: GPS), a specialty retailer selling casual apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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