{"id":18289,"date":"2023-06-05T07:25:28","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T11:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/will-f5-ffiv-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-250\/"},"modified":"2023-06-05T07:25:29","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T11:25:29","slug":"will-f5-ffiv-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-250","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=18289","title":{"rendered":"Will F5 (FFIV) Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level Of $250?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\">F5 stock<\/strong> (NASDAQ<fbs-ticker data-name=\"NDAQ\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/nasdaq\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NDAQ<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>: FFIV) currently trades at $146 per share, around 9% above its level in November 2022, and it seems like it has little room for gains. F5<fbs-ticker data-name=\"FFIV\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/f5\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  FFIV<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> saw its stock trading at around $153 in June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is now 4% below that level. The stock has gained a mere 1% since its low in September 2022 compared to the S&amp;P 500, which gained about 18% during this period. The underperformance of FFIV stock over recent months can be attributed to its downbeat guidance. Although the rally in broader markets has been driven by a steady decline in the inflation rate in response to the Fed\u2019s aggressive rate hike plan, investors still have concerns about a potential recession. The steady increase in <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/no-login-required\/y5FDRHC5\/F5-Revenue?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">F5\u2019s revenues<\/strong> over recent quarters has failed to spark any rally in the stock thus far.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that FFIV stock will have to gain around 70% from here. However, we do not believe that will materialize any time soon, and we estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/no-login-required\/g7YMJNl1\/F5-Networks-FFIV-Valuation-Is-FFIV-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">F5\u2019s valuation<\/strong> to be about $153 per share, implying just 4% gains. This is because the recent uncertainty in the financial sector has made investors concerned about a potential recession. The company\u2019s management has cut its revenue and earnings guidance for fiscal 2023, citing macroeconomic factors and their potential impact on consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/no-login-required\/lJO3I6oP\/F5-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-FFIV-Stock-Has-69-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">F5\u2019s upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022 and compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt the supply<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how FFIV stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>FFIV and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>FFIV stock declined from $38 in September 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to around $20 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying FFIV stock lost over 45% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $53 in early 2010, rising 165% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FFIV Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>FFIV revenues rose from $2.2 billion in 2019 to $2.7 billion in 2022, led by services and products revenues growth due to increasing demand for the company\u2019s services and entry into new markets. Despite higher revenue, reported earnings decreased from $7.12 in 2019 to $5.34 in 2022 due to a decline in operating margins, which fell from 23.1% to 15.0% over this period due to higher expenses, including a rise in component costs. Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/no-login-required\/jdmOgVB7\/F5-FFIV-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">F5 Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboard has more details.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does F5 Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>F5\u2019s total debt rose from nil to $350 million in 2022, but as of the latest quarter, the company has cleared its debt. Its total cash decreased from around $1 billion to $0.7 billion over the same period, and it generated $510 million in cash flows from operations in the last twelve months. The company has no debt burden and a good cash balance, so it appears to be in a comfortable financial position.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe F5 stock has the potential for good gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. That said, a possible decline in consumer spending and a steady fall in the company\u2019s operating margins means it may take a while for F5 stock to reach its pre-inflation shock highs of over $248.<\/p>\n<p>While FFIV stock looks like it has little room for growth, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">F5\u2019s Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you\u2019ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for<strong> <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/FFIV\/no-login-required\/2LJPuz35\/F5-vs-Target-FFIV-stock-s-significantly-higher-valuation-vs-TGT-appears-counterintuitive?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">F5 vs. Target<\/strong><fbs-ticker data-name=\"TGT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/target\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  TGT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, among other factors, F5 stock has risen just 2% this year, underperforming the broader indices, with the S&amp;P500 index up 11%. Can it drop from here? See how low F5 stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/RsQ6oXgC\/High-Quality-Portfolio-30-Stocks-with-189-Return-Since-2016-vs-88-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230605\">high-quality portfolio<\/strong> that\u2019s beaten the market consistently since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/06\/05\/will-f5-ffiv-stock-recover-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-250\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>F5 stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : FFIV) currently trades at $146 per share, around 9% above its level in November 2022, and it seems like it has little room for gains. F5 FFIV saw its stock trading at around $153 in June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is now 4% below that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-18289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will F5 (FFIV) Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level Of $250? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"F5 stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : FFIV) currently trades at $146 per share, around 9% above its level in November 2022, and it seems like it has little room for\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=18289\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will F5 (FFIV) Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level Of $250? 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