{"id":17465,"date":"2023-06-02T21:38:59","date_gmt":"2023-06-03T01:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/ai-is-going-to-change-investing-heres-how-it-could-play-out\/"},"modified":"2023-06-02T21:39:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-03T01:39:00","slug":"ai-is-going-to-change-investing-heres-how-it-could-play-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=17465","title":{"rendered":"AI Is Going to Change Investing. Here\u2019s How It Could Play Out."},"content":{"rendered":"

A few days after Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, as a young, somewhat tech-knowledgeable reporter at Fortune, I was summoned by the magazine\u2019s board of editors to explain why the market had fallen 22%. I was to spell out to members of this hoary group (some of whom were smoking pipes) what program trading was and how it contributed to the market crash. <\/p>\n

\n

I dutifully relayed what my pal, George Fellows Jr., then on the options desk at Drexel Burnham Lambert, described to me: that program trading entailed having a computer algorithm buy or sell baskets of stocks, sometimes arbitraging against an index. I remember the editors shaking their heads in dismay and disbelief\u2014like the bankers in Mary Poppins<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Wall Street\u2019s relationship with technology is longstanding, deep, and uneasy. Yes, computers back then were practically abacuses, but they still put markets on the brink. In fact, major technological leaps such as processing-power gains in the 1980s and consumerization of the internet in the late 1990s seem to presage stock market booms and busts. To wit: the aforementioned \u201987 crash and the tech bubble, respectively. More recently, we\u2019ve experienced smaller-scale flash crashes (May 2010 and April 2013) and high-frequency trading glitches.<\/p>\n

And now, in this incipient age of artificial intelligence, we could well see more Wall Street tempests, big or small. The wild action in
\n Nvidia
\n stock (ticker: NVDA) and the recent momentary market dip on a fake, AI-generated photo purporting to show a fire near the Pentagon may be one-offs\u2014or harbingers.<\/p>\n

Broadly speaking, what are we to make of AI? Last week my colleague Randall Forsyth wrote about its impact on the economy. Another consideration, of course, is AI as an investment, not only Nvidia, but
\n Microsoft
\n (MSFT), Google parent
\n Alphabet
\n (GOOGL), and
\n Marvell Technology
\n (MRVL)\u2014and if you can get your hands on private darlings like ChatGPT\u2019s parent, OpenAI, or Anthropic.<\/p>\n

Investors are right to be skeptical, though. Over the past decade, Silicon Valley has produced and shilled the likes of cryptocurrency, nonfungible tokens, virtual reality and extended reality, the metaverse, and next-to-worthless apps like the one that tracks the weight of your dog. Does AI really rise above that roster of dubious innovation? A number of veteran tech executives and investors such as Dave Roux, co-founder of Silver Lake and BayPine, say yes.<\/p>\n

\u201cI wouldn\u2019t say that AI is the same as fire or electricity,\u201d Roux says. \u201cBut it\u2019s probably more important than\u2014or as important as\u2014personal computers and mobile phones. And think of how large those technologies have been.\u201d<\/p>\n

Like the PC and cellphones, then, AI has the capacity to rewrite how almost every business works\u2014including investing. Though it\u2019s still early days, I decided to delve into how AI might change things for retail and institutional investors. Spoiler alert: Bring grains of salt.<\/p>\n

Matt Hougan, chief information officer at Bitwise Asset Management and a board member at EquBot\u2014an AI-based investment platform which oversees the
\n AI Powered Equity
\n exchange-traded fund (AIEQ)\u2014calls AI \u201cpart of a long-term flattening of the informational advantage between the most well-resourced institutions and the least-well-resourced retail investors that has been going on for decades.\u201d In other words, AI could give retail investors tools that heretofore had only been available to quant hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies and D.E. Shaw. That sounds nice in theory, but practically speaking, the gap between \u201cus\u201d and \u201cthem\u201d is miles wide, and AI still has a long way to go.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m having a hard time figuring out how AI will change investing,\u201d says a former chief risk officer at one of the big quant firms. AI can\u2019t necessarily be trusted, he says, and \u201csuccessful quants rely not only on smart algorithms but also on extremely efficient market execution. AI probably doesn\u2019t help with that.\u201d And three, he says, \u201cAI would need to be packaged in a way that makes it usable. You can\u2019t just tell AI: \u2018Go into the market with $X of capital and make money.\u2019 There needs to be some kind of platform or structure. Could that platform be offered to a retail investor at a price that makes sense?\u201d<\/p>\n

Good questions.<\/p>\n

Nick Bostrom, a noted AI expert at Oxford University with a sometimes dystopian take, says AI will be a boon to investors who need to digest vast amounts of texts, \u201cwhether it\u2019s a new annual report that can be read in half a second, or reading what people are saying on social media.\u201d But Bostrom is skeptical about some of its supposed advantages. \u201cCan AI predict better than, say, human experts would whether there will be a coup in some particular country or an expropriation of a big oil company? I\u2019m not aware of any data on that currently,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Still, banks and broker-dealers are lurching forward, manifesting a curious dichotomy along the way. Bloomberg reports that many, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, have banned ChatGPT at work\u2014small wonder given nightmarish scenarios like at Samsung, where engineers leaked proprietary code onto ChatGPT. Oops.<\/p>\n

Other banks, though\u2014or in some cases, different departments at the same institutions\u2014are cautiously experimenting with AI. In this camp are Goldman, which is using AI to help its developers write code, and J.P. Morgan, which is using AI to detect trading signals from Federal Reserve statements and speeches (as it perhaps did on Thursday when Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he supported skipping an interest-rate increase at the central bank\u2019s June meeting).<\/p>\n

BlackRock has set up BlackRock AI Labs (\u201cAt BlackRock, we believe that AI can help meaningfully improve financial well-being\u201d), replete with an impressive roster of scientists, though it isn\u2019t exactly clear what they do. A source at BlackRock says stay tuned for AI news soon.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley may well be the furthest along with AI. About a year and a half ago, a Morgan Stanley team met with OpenAI, says David Wu, a managing director at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Today its financial advisors are being trained to use an internal tool based on GPT4 (OpenAI\u2019s most recent version), which allows employees to have a \u201clive chat\u201d with all of the firm\u2019s data and research.<\/p>\n

\u201cA few months ago, if you asked your financial advisor, \u2018Hey, what do you think about
\n Apple
\n [AAPL],\u2019 they might have to go through a research portal to look up that latest report,\u201d Wu says. \u201cOftentimes the advisor will say, \u2018Let me get back to you later in the day.\u2019 We\u2019re building a chat interface that allows the FA to ask in real time what\u2019s our latest outlook on Apple, and then have the machine go through our entire corpus of internal content and synthesize an answer in two seconds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is that a blessing or a curse?<\/p>\n

What about bypassing broker-dealers and using ChatGPT directly to invest? To get at that, here\u2019s a precis: ChatGPT, the most-prominent generative AI platform, became available on Nov. 30, 2022 (a day perhaps analogous to Aug. 9, 1995, when Netscape went public and ushered in the era of the consumer internet). If you haven\u2019t played around with ChatGPT\u2014and I highly recommend that you do\u2014it\u2019s worth noting that it doesn\u2019t include content after September 2021. Which paradoxically means if you ask ChatGPT if it is available to the public, it essentially says no. Also, ChatGPT won\u2019t give investment advice. If you ask it what stock to buy it spews boilerplate blah-blah:<\/p>\n

\u201cAs an AI language model, I cannot provide personalized financial advice or make specific stock recommendations. Deciding which stocks to buy involves various factors such as your financial goals, risk tolerance, investment horizon, and individual research. It\u2019s generally recommended to consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research on your own before making any investment decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

ChatGPT can, however, answer questions about the time value of money or the difference between stocks and bonds, and so forth. Of course, there are other generative AI sites only too happy to have their algos advise you. (Yes, be afraid.)<\/p>\n

For a reality check on all this, I called on a couple of Wall Street wise men, the Wharton School\u2019s Jeremy Siegel and Princeton University\u2019s Burton Malkiel, with some 120 years of market experience between them. You won\u2019t be surprised they were in the \u201cnothing new under the sun\u201d camp.<\/p>\n

First, Prof. Siegel. Does he think AI will pick our stocks and we can just go to the beach? Nope. \u201cDon\u2019t forget what AI does,\u201d Siegel says. \u201cChatGPT scans everything that\u2019s been written. I don\u2019t see how that really helps pick stocks. I think AI has great possibilities, but I don\u2019t think it has great possibilities for stock selection.\u201d<\/p>\n

Over to you, Prof. Malkiel. \u201cI think there\u2019s no question that if I am a security analyst, I am going to be able to do a better job than I had done before [because of AI],\u201d Malkiel says. \u201cBut in no way does it affect my view that the individual investor should not be a stockpicker. If anything, with AI, the market will do a better job of having all information impounded into market prices. The paradox is that as everybody gets better, then it\u2019s even tougher to pick individual stocks than it was before.\u201d<\/p>\n

Apparently it\u2019s tough even for AI. Since its inception on Oct. 18, 2017, the AIEQ ETF is up 16.1%, compared with the S&P 500\u2019s gain of 63.9%. Also, just this past Tuesday, ChatGPT was ridiculed for being easily fooled by this question: \u201cWhich weighs more, a pound of feathers or five pounds of lead?\u201d (It said they weigh the same.) <\/p>\n

Still, I went back and asked that same question two days later and got this: \u201cFive pounds of lead weighs more than a pound of feathers. While both items are measured in pounds, five pounds is a larger weight than one pound. Therefore, in terms of weight, five pounds of lead is heavier than a pound of feathers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bottom line: ChatGPT and the rest are nowhere near ready for prime time for investors. But think about this: Tonight you will climb into bed and go to sleep. And while you\u2019re off in the land of Nod, ChatGPT will be working away, getting better. <\/p>\n

Write to <\/strong>Andy Serwer at andy.serwer@barrons.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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