{"id":17277,"date":"2023-06-02T12:22:58","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T16:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/beware-the-june-swoon-for-stocks-as-ai-ebullience-leaves-tech-overbought\/"},"modified":"2023-06-02T12:22:59","modified_gmt":"2023-06-02T16:22:59","slug":"beware-the-june-swoon-for-stocks-as-ai-ebullience-leaves-tech-overbought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=17277","title":{"rendered":"Beware the \u2018June Swoon\u2019 for stocks as AI-ebullience leaves tech overbought"},"content":{"rendered":"

The new month has gotten off to a decent start for stocks, with the S&P 500
\n SPX,
\n +1.31%<\/bg-quote>
\n once again poking above the 4,200 level.<\/p>\n

Futures suggest it may extend gains Friday after chances of an imminent U.S. default were finally removed.<\/p>\n

But whether 4,200 can now morph from ceiling to support may depend on how traders ultimately discount how Friday\u2019s mixed jobs data will impact Federal Reserve thinking on interest rates. <\/p>\n

\n

Unfortunately, even that may not be enough to help the rally continue, reckons Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. <\/p>\n

Technical and seasonal factors mean investors should focus on the potential for a \u201cJune Swoon,\u201d he said in a note published midweek.<\/p>\n

While a debt-ceiling deal in Washington could be a catalyst for the S&P 500 to break significantly above 4,200, the overbought conditions in the technology sector and mega-caps \u2014 the primary drivers of this year\u2019s advance \u2014 may make it hard for the market to consolidate above that hurdle in the near term, especially without a broader participation of stocks, says Turnquist.<\/p>\n

The tech sector\u2019s relative strength index, a momentum gauge, shows just how overbought it is, alongside about 25% of tech stocks, Turnquist notes.<\/p>\n

To emphasize this, the second from top chart in the graphic below shows how the ratio of the tech sector relative to the S&P 500 is in rarified territory.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

\u201cWhile overbought conditions provide validation of the sector\u2019s uptrend, and overbought does not mean over, odds for a shorter-term consolidation and\/or pullback appear to be growing,\u201d says Turnquist.<\/p>\n

And while people like to repeat the mantra \u2018Sell in May and go away\u2019, it\u2019s actually June that historically has provided poor returns during the late spring\/summer. The S&P 500 has delivered average and median gains during June of 0.0% and 0.1% respectively. It\u2019s the fourth worst performing month since 1950.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Turnquist adds: \u201cWhile the overall average June return is underwhelming, when the S&P 500 does trade higher during the month, the average return has been 2.5%. In contrast, when the S&P 500 trades lower during the month, the average June return has historically been -3.0%.\u201d<\/p>\n

Unfortunately the seasonal set-up for tech is even worse, with the sector generating since 1990 average and median returns of 0.0% and minus 1.7% respectively. That\u2019s the second worst month, with positive returns only 42.4% of the time, according to Turnquist.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Still, Turnquist finishes on a more positive note: \u201cThe good news is that if there is mean reversion, it would likely be toward the sector\u2019s uptrend and provide a potential pullback opportunity for investors seeking a better entry point into tech. The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee maintains a neutral recommendation on the technology sector and is waiting for a better entry point.\u201d<\/p>\n

Markets<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

Following some choppiness after the jobs data, U.S. stock index futures
\n ES00,
\n +1.26%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n

YM00,
\n +1.83%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n

NQ00,
\n +0.62%<\/bg-quote>
\n are firmer and benchmark Treasury yields
\n TMUBMUSD10Y,
\n 3.688%<\/bg-quote>
\n are nudging higher as a risk-on mood prevails. The dollar index
\n DXY,
\n +0.41%<\/bg-quote>
\n is little changed, with oil
\n CL.1,
\n +2.43%<\/bg-quote>
\n higher and gold
\n GC00,
\n -1.14%<\/bg-quote>
\n lower.<\/p>\n

Try your hand at the Barron\u2019s crossword puzzle and sudoku games, now running daily along with a weekly digital jigsaw based on the week\u2019s cover story. To see all puzzles,\u00a0<\/strong>click here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The buzz<\/h2>\n

The big data-point Friday was the nonfarm payrolls report for May. A net 339,000 jobs were created last month, much higher than the 188,000 expected. However, average earnings growth dipped, as expected, to 0.3% and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.7%, against forecasts of 3.5%.<\/p>\n

Confirmation that the U.S. debt default is definitely off the table \u2014 until the next time \u2014 helped spark a broad global risk-on mood. A notable beneficiary was the Hang Seng in Hong Kong
\n HSI,
\n +4.02%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n which after flirting with bear market territory this week, bounced 4% Friday. Expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged on June 14 remained around 66%.<\/p>\n

Oil prices
\n CL.1,
\n +2.43%<\/bg-quote>
\n were firmer ahead of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Most analysts expect the cartel to leave production targets unchanged.<\/p>\n

MongoDB Inc. shares
\n MDB,
\n +27.12%<\/bg-quote>
\n are 25% higher in premarket trading Friday after the database-software company blew away expectations with its earnings and forecast delivered after Thursday\u2019s closing bell. <\/p>\n

Shares of <\/strong>Lululemon Athletica Inc.
\n LULU,
\n +12.36%<\/bg-quote>
\n are jumping nearly 15% after the retailer forecast full-year sales and profit above expectations and as strong gains in China\u2019s reopened economy helped boost first-quarter results. <\/p>\n

SentinelOne Inc.
\n S,
\n -36.80%<\/bg-quote>
\n shares are plummeting more than 35% after executives cut their annual forecast and announced layoffs. <\/p>\n

Best of the web<\/h2>\n

When markets melt down, these traders cash in.<\/p>\n

Hedge funds at war for top traders dangle $120 million payouts.<\/p>\n

Five globally successful Chinese companies you\u2019ve never heard of.<\/p>\n

The chart<\/h2>\n

Last week we noted that retail investors had yet to meaningfully pile in to AI-themed stocks, meaning the rally may gain further propulsion when they do. Well, the chart below from Vanda Research shows that those traders are indeed now putting more of their money to work in the sector.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

\u201cFOMO looks to be kicking in. After weeks of stagnant flows, retail traders are starting to chase the tech rally by expanding their purchases across a wider array of AI-sensitive stocks\u2026large-cap names were the initial targets, but now individual traders are shifting to other companies like
\n PLTR,
\n -0.14%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span><\/p>\n

MRVL,
\n -2.03%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n and
\n PATH,
\n +3.01%<\/bg-quote>,<\/span>
\n \u201d said Vanda.<\/p>\n

Top tickers<\/h2>\n

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n Ticker<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n Security name<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n TSLA,
\n +3.80%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Tesla<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n NVDA,
\n -0.29%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Nvidia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n GME,
\n +1.91%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AAPL,
\n +0.37%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Apple<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n BUD,
\n +1.51%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Anheuser-Busch InBev ADR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n PLTR,
\n -0.14%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Palantir<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AI,
\n -6.51%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n C3.ai<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AMC,
\n -0.33%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n AMC Entertainment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n NIO,
\n +1.59%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n NIO<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n AMZN,
\n +1.49%<\/bg-quote>\n <\/td>\n		\n Amazon.com<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

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Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new month has gotten off to a decent start for stocks, with the S&P 500 SPX, +1.31% once again poking above the 4,200 level. Futures suggest it may extend gains Friday after chances of an imminent U.S. default were finally removed. 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